Football Peyton is the most consistent QB of all-time! - Page 3

Hootie · 03-11-2015, 02:20 PM

QBR became a clutch weighted QBR formula that was developed and started rating QB's in 2006:

Here are Peyton's ranks:

06: 1
07: 2
08: 1
09: 1
10: 2
11: DNP
12: 1
13: 1
14: 3

Postseason:

06: 1
07: 1
08: 1
09: 3
10: 3
12: 8
13: 2
14: 7

No one else comes even close. He does more for his team to win games than any player has ever had to, and it's not close.

/thread!

**mdchiefsfan** · 03-11-2015, 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Nah just was doing a little FAP research when I was on my Flacco / Romo rant

FYP

tredadda · 03-11-2015, 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

was it Peyton's fault he didn't recover the onside kick against the Saints that changed the game?

was it Peyton's fault Rahim Moore made the worst defensive play in NFL history after Peyton scored the "game winning TD" with less than 2:30 minutes left?

nice try, Jimmy

this is the sort of stuff I'm talking about

I know, though...Tom Brady made a great 2nd down INT to win his last Super Bowl against the Hawks. Brilliant move on Belichick to put Brady out on the field on that 2nd down.

1. No, but the game costing pick six was his fault regardless of what happened prior to that.

2. No on Rahim Moore's play, but the two INTs and one fumble lost were on him. He benefited from not one, but two return TDs by Holliday. Without those his turnovers would have been more costly and there would be no blaming Moore for Denver losing that game.

TEX · 03-11-2015, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

QBR became a clutch weighted QBR formula that was developed and started rating QB's in 2006:

Here are Peyton's ranks:

06: 1
07: 2
08: 1
09: 1
10: 2
11: DNP
12: 1
13: 1
14: 3

Postseason:

06: 1
07: 1
08: 1
09: 3
10: 3
12: 8
13: 2
14: 7

No one else comes even close. He does more for his team to win games than any player has ever had to, and it's not close.

/thread!

And yet when it comes to Championships, Manning has won less, with more, than any QB of all time...

**notorious** · 03-11-2015, 08:57 PM

Dayze · 03-12-2015, 04:13 AM

Amnorix · 03-12-2015, 06:20 AM

Thought this was interesting. QB analysis by 538.com. I don't necessarily agree or disagree, but it was an interesting read.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/t...on-of-nfl-qbs/

I will post the full article in the next post.

Amnorix · 03-12-2015, 06:22 AM

A vast amount of column space was spent this week debating whether Tom Brady had finally ascended to No. 1 in the all-time pantheon of quarterbacking greatness. (Many of the articles argued that, yes, Brady is now the best ever.)

These assessments leaned heavily on the fact that Brady is tied with Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw for the most Super Bowl victories of any quarterback. But even Patriots fans have to acknowledge that “count the rings” isn’t the most nuanced argument in the world. So, what do the numbers say about Brady’s legacy?

The common narrative is that early-career Brady wasn’t a statistical monster, to the point that his playoff wins over Peyton Manning in 2003 and 2004 were held up as victories for clutch, gritty winners everywhere. But the truth is that, in addition to his gaudy record as a postseason starter, Brady was one of the league’s top five to 10 regular-season quarterbacks statistically even before his transformation into a passing efficiency god in 2007.

In other words, the “clutch game manager” phase of Brady’s career was never as game manager-y as his detractors made it out to be. And ever since, he’s been as efficient a regular-season QB as any in NFL history.

To measure QB performance, I used Chase Stuart’s formula for passing value, which compares a quarterback’s adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) to the league average after adjusting for home-field advantage, weather effects and strength of schedule. By that metric, the late-career version of Brady owns practically every stretch of the best consecutive peak passing regular seasons in the Super Bowl era:

Now, some of that is due to sheer passing volume; while shorter schedules have been prorated to 16 games, today’s passers drop back so much more often per game than their predecessors did that they have more chances to add value. Even so, Brady’s stats have risen far above those of his peers (including Manning) during the peak of his career once all the aforementioned adjustments are made.

In terms of total career regular season value, however, Brady does not rank No. 1 among Super Bowl era quarterbacks — his 11,921 adjusted yards of value over average ranks second to Manning’s 13,791-yard mark:

[a chart that won't paste in correctly, but shows Manning #1 all-time (due to volume) and Brady #2]

Of course, any good ranking of quarterbacks should also give credit for performance in the playoffs, and Brady’s trump card over Manning has always been the postseason. But here’s where the twist comes in: After crediting playoff passing value over average (according to the same formula described above) with weight given to each game according to how much it changes a team’s probability of winning the Super Bowl relative to the average regular season game — a form of leverage index for the importance of football games — Brady passes Manning but is surpassed by two others: Joe Montana and our old friend Kurt Warner:

[another chart. Montana is #1 by a mile, then Warner, Brady, Bradshaw then Manning.]

Why? Under the leverage-weighted scheme, playoff games are given an incredible amount of emphasis. Wild card games are worth about 26 times as much as the average regular season game; that multiplier becomes 51 for the divisional round, 102 for the conference championship games and a whopping 205 for the Super Bowl (you can read more about this math at the end of the post).

Because of the extreme weighting given to playoff games, Brady loses ground to Montana, whose three best Super Bowls were each at least 47 adjusted yards of value better than any of Brady’s Super Bowls. (Montana’s worst Super Bowl was also better than three of Brady’s Super Bowls.) Warner also gets a massive boost from his Super Bowl performances in 2000 and 2009 — the latter of which ranks as the single-best passing game of the Super Bowl era after adjusting for the strength of opponent and the leverage of the game — in addition to big games at lower rungs of the playoff ladder. Adding in the postseason hurts Brady.

So, is Brady the best all of time? At his regular-season peak, he might very well be. And if he has a few more great seasons, he could pass Manning on career value over average. But for now, Montana reigns supreme among Super Bowl-era QBs when playoff performance is included in the calculations.

Here’s how the math works out: The average regular-season game moves a team’s chances of winning the Super Bowl by about 0.24 percentage points. That’s because every team starts out with a 1 in 32 chance of winning it all, which inevitably moves to either zero (for the 20 teams who miss the playoffs) or 1 in 12 ( for playoff teams) once all 16 games are played. Meanwhile, the Super Bowl swings each team’s chances by 50 percent — either up from 50-50 to 100 percent, or down to zero.

**007** · 03-12-2015, 06:23 AM

yet has the most one and dones in playoff history.

Amnorix · 03-12-2015, 06:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guru

yet has the most one and dones in playoff history.

That is also a form of consistency!

Mile High Mania · 03-12-2015, 06:34 AM

Give me John Elway any day of the week and twice on Sunday, in any offense over Peyton.

Deberg_1990 · 03-12-2015, 06:36 AM

Hes the best 'Regular Season' QB of all time. or he soon will be.....

179-77 .699 winning pct.

He will pass Favre for most wins this season

TEX · 03-12-2015, 06:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix

Thought this was interesting. QB analysis by 538.com. I don't necessarily agree or disagree, but it was an interesting read.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/t...on-of-nfl-qbs/

I will post the full article in the next post.

Please dont...

Pasta Little Brioni · 03-12-2015, 06:48 AM

Pasta's "soft bitch rankings" presented by Charmin for Peytie Pie

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Amnorix · 03-12-2015, 06:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990

Hes the best 'Regular Season' QB of all time. or he soon will be.....

179-77 .699 winning pct.

He will pass Favre for most wins this season

"Best" means highest win percentage, no? Not just volume. That's just a longevity award.

In which case (and let me know if you already knew this was coming) Brady baby!

160-47 for a 77.3 win percentage.

Pasta Little Brioni · 03-12-2015, 06:50 AM

Can we please stop with the cherry picked pulled outta some dudes rectum in a basement bullshit stats?

03-11-2015, 02:20 PM
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	Peyton is the most consistent QB of all-time! QBR became a clutch weighted QBR formula that was developed and started rating QB's in 2006: Here are Peyton's ranks: 06: 1 07: 2 08: 1 09: 1 10: 2 11: DNP 12: 1 13: 1 14: 3 Postseason: 06: 1 07: 1 08: 1 09: 3 10: 3 12: 8 13: 2 14: 7 No one else comes even close. He does more for his team to win games than any player has ever had to, and it's not close. /thread!
Posts: 56,356

03-11-2015, 08:57 PM	#34
notorious Supporter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Who knows? Casino cash: $2375884
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03-12-2015, 04:13 AM	#35
Dayze Resident Glue Sniffer Join Date: Nov 2003 Casino cash: $4699358	__________________ Life is 99% inspiration, 1% Perspiration, and 1% Attention to Detial. RIP & Godspeed: Saccoppo Lonewolf Ed Fire Me Boy
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03-12-2015, 06:20 AM	#36
Amnorix In BB I trust Join Date: May 2003 Location: Boston, Mass. Casino cash: $10029808	Thought this was interesting. QB analysis by 538.com. I don't necessarily agree or disagree, but it was an interesting read. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/t...on-of-nfl-qbs/ I will post the full article in the next post. __________________ "I love signature blocks on the Internet. I get to put whatever the hell I want in quotes, pick a pretend author, and bang, it's like he really said it." George Washington
Posts: 43,125

03-12-2015, 06:22 AM	#37
Amnorix In BB I trust Join Date: May 2003 Location: Boston, Mass. Casino cash: $10029808	A vast amount of column space was spent this week debating whether Tom Brady had finally ascended to No. 1 in the all-time pantheon of quarterbacking greatness. (Many of the articles argued that, yes, Brady is now the best ever.) These assessments leaned heavily on the fact that Brady is tied with Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw for the most Super Bowl victories of any quarterback. But even Patriots fans have to acknowledge that “count the rings” isn’t the most nuanced argument in the world. So, what do the numbers say about Brady’s legacy? The common narrative is that early-career Brady wasn’t a statistical monster, to the point that his playoff wins over Peyton Manning in 2003 and 2004 were held up as victories for clutch, gritty winners everywhere. But the truth is that, in addition to his gaudy record as a postseason starter, Brady was one of the league’s top five to 10 regular-season quarterbacks statistically even before his transformation into a passing efficiency god in 2007. In other words, the “clutch game manager” phase of Brady’s career was never as game manager-y as his detractors made it out to be. And ever since, he’s been as efficient a regular-season QB as any in NFL history. To measure QB performance, I used Chase Stuart’s formula for passing value, which compares a quarterback’s adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) to the league average after adjusting for home-field advantage, weather effects and strength of schedule. By that metric, the late-career version of Brady owns practically every stretch of the best consecutive peak passing regular seasons in the Super Bowl era: Now, some of that is due to sheer passing volume; while shorter schedules have been prorated to 16 games, today’s passers drop back so much more often per game than their predecessors did that they have more chances to add value. Even so, Brady’s stats have risen far above those of his peers (including Manning) during the peak of his career once all the aforementioned adjustments are made. In terms of total career regular season value, however, Brady does not rank No. 1 among Super Bowl era quarterbacks — his 11,921 adjusted yards of value over average ranks second to Manning’s 13,791-yard mark: [a chart that won't paste in correctly, but shows Manning #1 all-time (due to volume) and Brady #2] Of course, any good ranking of quarterbacks should also give credit for performance in the playoffs, and Brady’s trump card over Manning has always been the postseason. But here’s where the twist comes in: After crediting playoff passing value over average (according to the same formula described above) with weight given to each game according to how much it changes a team’s probability of winning the Super Bowl relative to the average regular season game — a form of leverage index for the importance of football games — Brady passes Manning but is surpassed by two others: Joe Montana and our old friend Kurt Warner: [another chart. Montana is #1 by a mile, then Warner, Brady, Bradshaw then Manning.] Why? Under the leverage-weighted scheme, playoff games are given an incredible amount of emphasis. Wild card games are worth about 26 times as much as the average regular season game; that multiplier becomes 51 for the divisional round, 102 for the conference championship games and a whopping 205 for the Super Bowl (you can read more about this math at the end of the post). Because of the extreme weighting given to playoff games, Brady loses ground to Montana, whose three best Super Bowls were each at least 47 adjusted yards of value better than any of Brady’s Super Bowls. (Montana’s worst Super Bowl was also better than three of Brady’s Super Bowls.) Warner also gets a massive boost from his Super Bowl performances in 2000 and 2009 — the latter of which ranks as the single-best passing game of the Super Bowl era after adjusting for the strength of opponent and the leverage of the game — in addition to big games at lower rungs of the playoff ladder. Adding in the postseason hurts Brady. So, is Brady the best all of time? At his regular-season peak, he might very well be. And if he has a few more great seasons, he could pass Manning on career value over average. But for now, Montana reigns supreme among Super Bowl-era QBs when playoff performance is included in the calculations. Here’s how the math works out: The average regular-season game moves a team’s chances of winning the Super Bowl by about 0.24 percentage points. That’s because every team starts out with a 1 in 32 chance of winning it all, which inevitably moves to either zero (for the 20 teams who miss the playoffs) or 1 in 12 ( for playoff teams) once all 16 games are played. Meanwhile, the Super Bowl swings each team’s chances by 50 percent — either up from 50-50 to 100 percent, or down to zero. __________________ "I love signature blocks on the Internet. I get to put whatever the hell I want in quotes, pick a pretend author, and bang, it's like he really said it." George Washington
Posts: 43,125

03-12-2015, 06:23 AM	#38
007 Shaken. Not stirred. Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: London Casino cash: $13810126 VARSITY	yet has the most one and dones in playoff history. __________________ My dear girl, there are some things that just aren’t done. Such as, drinking Dom Perignon ’53 above the temperature of 38 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s just as bad as listening to the Beatles without earmuffs.
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03-12-2015, 06:34 AM	#40
Mile High Mania #triggering Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Tejas Casino cash: $3267229	Give me John Elway any day of the week and twice on Sunday, in any offense over Peyton. __________________
Posts: 30,361

03-12-2015, 06:36 AM	#41
Deberg_1990 In Search of a Life Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: San Antonio Tx. Casino cash: $3464454	Hes the best 'Regular Season' QB of all time. or he soon will be..... 179-77 .699 winning pct. He will pass Favre for most wins this season __________________ Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning: Matt once made a very nice play in Seattle where he spun away from a pass rusher and hit Bowe off his back foot for a first down. One of the best plays Matt has ever made.
Posts: 66,914

03-12-2015, 06:48 AM	#43
Pasta Little Brioni Consuming CP souls Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: U.S.A. Casino cash: $3448880	Pasta's "soft bitch rankings" presented by Charmin for Peytie Pie 06. 1 07. 1 08. 1 09. 1 10. 1 11. 1 12. 1 13. 1 14. 1 __________________ **Official TFWdemB Trivia Commisioner**
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03-12-2015, 06:50 AM	#45
Pasta Little Brioni Consuming CP souls Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: U.S.A. Casino cash: $3448880	Can we please stop with the cherry picked pulled outta some dudes rectum in a basement bullshit stats? __________________ **Official TFWdemB Trivia Commisioner**
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