Peyton vs. Perfection (Denver vs KC breakdown) MMQB

[Quesadilla Joe]

It's the Game Of The Year so far: the prolific Denver Broncos vs. the stingy Kansas City Chiefs. Can Peyton Manning and company hand K.C. its first loss?

http://mmqb.si.com/2013/11/14/denver...eyton-manning/


This AFC West showdown between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs is as good as it gets for football in November. No division rivals have ever squared off with fewer than two losses between them so late in the season. The Broncos (8-1) are scoring an obscene 41.2 points per game, by far the best in the NFL. The Chiefs (9-0) are giving up just 12.3 points per contest, also a league best. As Jack Nicholson and Diane Keaton once taught us, something’s gotta give.

Broncos offense vs. Chiefs defense

1. Pressuring Peyton

A hot topic right now is Peyton Manning’s protection. It hasn’t been great in recent weeks, which is to be somewhat expected given that anchor Ryan Clady (IR) has been replaced by Chris Clark. The 28-year-old undrafted journeyman has given up a few critical blind-side hits, though he’s not the only culprit on this struggling line. Right tackle Orlando Franklin also has been caught flat-footed a few times. Manning, with precise pocket movement and rapid progression-read ability, is generally able to overcome shoddy protection. But two bum ankles—plus copious bumps and bruises on his 37-year-old-body—make eluding pressure a taller order these days.

The Chiefs know how to apply pressure. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston give defensive coordinator Bob Sutton the rare privilege of scheming with dynamic rushers from both edges. One of the two almost always faces one-on-one pass blocking. Both might see it frequently at the same time on Sunday night, as Manning prefers to go with a minimum five-man protection in order to have five eligible receivers at his disposal. (This is one reason why running back Knowshon Moreno catches so many short passes.)

Kansas City has been one of the most complex and successful blitzing teams in the NFL this season, particularly on 3rd-and-long when Sutton loves to play dime and send speedy corners and safeties after the quarterback. Though a sizeable chunk of Kansas City’s league-leading 36 sacks have come out of complex pressure packages, don’t expect Sutton to use a lot of them against the Broncos. Most defensive coordinators refrain from blitzing Manning. The Chargers had some success with it, but they only called for pressure in the second half after it became apparent that their defensive backs could not compete with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas. Kansas City’s defensive backs can challenge those receivers.

2. The Man-to-Man Matchups

The closest any defense has come to slowing Denver was Indianapolis’s, when cornerbacks Vontae Davis, Greg Toler and Darius Butler stymied Manning’s receivers for most of the first three quarters in Week 7. (Injuries to Davis and Butler changed Indy’s fortunes down the stretch.) The Broncos know how to beat man coverage—they’ve mastered barely legal pick plays and intertwined crossing patterns—but they have yet to face a man-coverage defense as sturdy as the Chiefs’. At the same time, Kansas City hasn’t faced an offense with these types of weapons. The following individual matchups will likely determine the outcome of the game:

Outside: CBs Sean Smith and Marcus Cooper vs. WRs Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker

Smith is lanky and physical, though he’s been a bit shaky as of late. (Receiver Stevie Johnson was right when he said that Smith’s 98-yard pick-six against Buffalo was “lucky.” Smith was in position to make that interception only because Johnson had juked him so far sideways off the line of scrimmage.) When Smith plays with discipline, he’s one of the best boundary defenders in the game. But if he gets antsy against double moves—something Thomas and Decker perform extremely well—he could wind up in trouble.

On the other side, Cooper, a seventh-round pick of the Niners this past spring, is a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate. He has an innate sense for playing both the ball and the receiver in isolated coverage against vertical routes on the outside. He also has good closing quickness when working back to the ball, especially for someone who is 6-2. For all of Cooper’s merits, don’t be surprised if Manning still tests him early. The young corner did get beat twice due to missteps in his press-jam technique in Kansas City’s last game.

Inside: CB Brandon Flowers vs. slot receiver Wes Welker

Since Week 5, Flowers, one of the NFL’s best boundary corners, has been playing the slot in nickel and dime. So far, the results have been stellar. Flowers is a surprisingly good blitzer, and more importantly, he knows how to apply his physicality in the wider spaces that come with playing inside. Most corners, even elite ones, can’t do that. We’ll find out on Sunday whether Flowers really is a slot aficionado. He’s yet to face an inside receiver of Welker’s caliber.

Inside: SS Eric Berry vs. TE Julius Thomas

Berry has transformed from a liability to an asset covering tight ends—though he hasn’t been severely tested except for when he controlled Jason Witten one-on-one in Week 2. The Broncos have the most dynamic tight end in the AFC not named Rob Gronkowski. And their system does a good job getting Thomas open by design.


3. Building Offense

Contrary to popular belief, the Broncos don’t do many complicated things offensively. Instead, they do many simple things really well. One is called “building offense,” meaning they use certain plays early in the game to set up other plays later in the game. Defenders think they’re spotting something familiar, but they’re actually being set up to be exploited. The good thing about being a man-based defense (like the Chiefs) is you’re a less susceptible to this sort of deception because coverage defenders don’t see the ball or route designs to begin with; their focus is solely on their man.

This doesn’t mean the Broncos won’t try to build offense. Instead of doing it with a combination of two or three different routes, they’ll do it on a more individualized basis. We saw a great example of this with Demaryius Thomas scoring two touchdowns at San Diego.





Kansas City’s cornerbacks must concentrate on getting stops, not interceptions. If they start cheating against Denver’s routes, they’ll get burned by a twist.


Chiefs offense vs. Broncos defense

There’s a perception that Denver’s defense is iffy, maybe even porous. That’s only because its two bad performances happened to coincide with the team’s two most-watched games: Week 5 at Dallas, and Week 7 at Indy. Take out those contests and this group is allowing a respectable 21.6 points per game.

The Chiefs lack the same offensive firepower that the Cowboys or Colts have. Their system hinges on Jamaal Charles being able to turn the outside corner in the ground game, and converting a few screens into first downs. Their passing game is limited, mainly because Alex Smith is committed to doing whatever it takes to not lose games. So far he’s been successful in this regard, but in order for the undefeated Chiefs to be genuine Super Bowl contenders, he at some point will have to actually make plays to win a game. This doesn’t mean making a gutsy play late in the fourth quarter; it means having the fortitude to consistently take advantage of big-play opportunities.

Smith is nowhere close to doing that right now. The TV camera angles that get beamed into living rooms across the country might show Smith not throwing interceptions. What those camera angles don’t show, however, is him missing wide-open receivers at the intermediate levels. They also don’t show him abandoning plays before receivers have finished their routes. We can see this, though, thanks to the All-22 film.






As this game probably will prove, Kansas City’s defense can’t keep holding opponents to under 20 points while also creating points of its own each week. Kansas City’s offense (i.e. Smith) will have to get sharper.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Oh there's some truth to that as well.

But the old saw used to be "look at how many sacks he takes, he holds onto the ball way too long!!!"

I don't see that at all. I see a guy that's constantly looking to get rid of the ball or get the hell out of the pocket. He's still always going to be someone that would prefer throw the short passes to the long ones, but he's not naturally gunshy; he used to be pretty confident back there in holding onto the football. When he's confident in the pocket, I think he'll make the easy passes downfield. Right now, he's scared back there so he's not even looking at the easy ones downfield; he bails way too soon on the routes and next thing you know he's on the run or has foolishly rolled out of the pocket to cut down half his field.

He used to be risk-averse; if the deep throw wasn't wide open, he's not going to make it. What I'm seeing now is someone that doesn't even get to risk averse, he's just playing scared. That was absolutely not a knock against him in SF.

Charles needs to get going early in this game. A productive Charles equals a productive play action passing game.

[Hammock Parties]

And that's why getting new receivers or better linemen isn't going to help Alex improve.

He's not even taking full advantage of the ones we already have.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by Molitoth

Maybe Alex would be forced to utilize his other weapons and stop relying on the RB checkdown so often.

so, you agree with the below statement.

Originally Posted by loochy

if we lost charles we would not

[Quesadilla Joe]

Originally Posted by SNR

Manning's gonna throw his share of picks, too, bud. You also might want to keep the ball out of Montee Ball's hands. We'll force some fumbles if he gets it.

The coaching staff corrected Balls fumbling issues, apparently Studesville (our RB coach) noticed that Montee wasn't tucking the ball away immediately after receiving the handoff, that's why most of Ball's fumbles came shortly after receiving the handoff. Montee hasn't fumbled since that flaw was corrected.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by Von Dumbass

The coaching staff corrected Balls fumbling issues, apparently Studesville (our RB coach) noticed that Montee wasn't tucking the ball away immediately after receiving the handoff, that's why most of Ball's fumbles came shortly after receiving the handoff. Montee hasn't fumbled since that flaw was corrected.

oh yeah? well reid fixed alex smith's passing issues thsi week. they noticed he was being a big wuss and that's why he never throws the damn ball. alex will throw 50 touchdowns now that he's been corrected.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Oh there's some truth to that as well.

But the old saw used to be "look at how many sacks he takes, he holds onto the ball way too long!!!"

I don't see that at all. I see a guy that's constantly looking to get rid of the ball or get the hell out of the pocket. He's still always going to be someone that would prefer throw the short passes to the long ones, but he's not naturally gunshy; he used to be pretty confident back there in holding onto the football. When he's confident in the pocket, I think he'll make the easy passes downfield. Right now, he's scared back there so he's not even looking at the easy ones downfield; he bails way too soon on the routes and next thing you know he's on the run or has foolishly rolled out of the pocket to cut down half his field.

He used to be risk-averse; if the deep throw wasn't wide open, he's not going to make it. What I'm seeing now is someone that doesn't even get to risk averse, he's just playing scared. That was absolutely not a knock against him in SF.

Re: Your bolded statements...

These speak to my concerns with Alex Smith from Day 1. And I don't share your belief that a cleaner pocket will allow him the impetus to make those throws and make those plays.... because he's NEVER had that.

Alex Smith has a long track record as an NFL QB of not being willing to throw into "NFL OPEN" windows. Of checking down too early/easily, when there are bigger plays to be made downfield. All-22 film breakdown backs that up.

I don't think fixing the Chiefs OL is going to do anything to reverse those tendencies. It's just who he is.

Andy Reid seems to think he can reverse them. I hope he can, but that's all it is... hope.

[Molitoth]

Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead

And that's why getting new receivers or better linemen isn't going to help Alex improve.

He's not even taking full advantage of the ones we already have.

I agree on the Receivers part... they are running open, but the line could improve drastically. Like DJLN mentioned; Alex is playing scared... and if he had some extra time and more faith in the line, maybe just maybe he could get out of this scared-y-cat bullshit QB'ing enough to throw downfield.

and DUncan brings up another good point... that's just who Alex is.

[DJ's left nut]

Of those photos, the first one doesn't really bother me - if he starts passing on open 12-15 yard passes to Dwyane Bowe on the chance that Dexter McCluster is breaking open deeper, we're ****ed. Bowe was his first read there, IMO and Bowe was open - so he hit him.

The 2nd photo bothers me more than any of the other ones. There is no justification at all for him bailing out of that pocket. His linemen did a fantastic job and he had Bowe past the sticks for a first down (I don't love that throw to Avery; the corner in the short zone is reading the QB, he'd have likely been waiting to break on that throw using the boundry to leverage coverage; that was a tough pass).

On the third photo that isn't as easy a pass as is being portrayed there, but it's one you'd like to see him try. The FS is waiting to close on that throw. Though ultimately I have to wonder what his progressions were - afterall, it looks like Bowe is just starting his route upfield before the throw went to Charles. Smith abandoned the route altogether. Was that based on a pre-snap read? I almost wonder if Philly didn't fake a blitz there and fool Smith into dumping to his hot read.

The 4th one also irritates me and I remember that one in real-time. It was the same damn throw to McCluster or Bowe, he just had to put another 8 yards of oomph on the throw to Bowe and he chickened out. It was yet another 1st down left on the field through skittish QB play. He's feeling phantom pressure up the middle on that play and rather than stand in and deliver the first down pass to Bowe, he's already looking to bail out of the pocket.

The 2nd picture is the most annoying one to me but the 4th picture most clearly demonstrates my concern - in SF he stands in and completes that pass for the first down. That's the kind of intermediate throw he needs to make for us to be successful. As this season has progressed, however, he's gotten worse and worse about feeling pressure that isn't there and bailing. He's been a drive killer on several occasions because of it.

[Quesadilla Joe]

Originally Posted by loochy

oh yeah? well reid fixed alex smith's passing issues thsi week. they noticed he was being a big wuss and that's why he never throws the damn ball. alex will throw 50 touchdowns now that he's been corrected.

What I'm saying is true though

It's why Montee still gets playing time and Ronnie Hillman doesn't dress anymore.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead

And that's why getting new receivers or better linemen isn't going to help Alex improve.

He's not even taking full advantage of the ones we already have.

We have played 9 games and he gives 4 examples, 2 from the Eagles game and 1 each from other games. This is in 315 pass attempts (not including plays he didnt pass he scrambled so its actually more passing plays).

Should we see all the examples of WR not being able to get any separation? I see that a lot when watching the games.

I am curious as to what will happen if we get behind and have to move the ball fast. I don't know if that changes his mindset or not. His highest situational QBR is when we have been behind.

Further more I watch other games and you see most QB's miss opportunities every game. Yea Manning, Brees, and the upper tier guys don't do it much but nobody ever claimed Smith is that level.

He needs to improve but its not like he needs to make a huge leap, he just needs to make a few more plays a game.

[hometeam]

If ESPN says we suck, may as well just forfeit.

oh well

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

He needs to improve but its not like he needs to make a huge leap, he just needs to make a few more plays a game.

We have just about the worst passing game in the league.

Being 33rd in yards per completion (only MIKE GLENNON is worse) is abysmal. That INCLUDES YAC, son.

What the hell are you on?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

We have played 9 games and he gives 4 examples, 2 from the Eagles game and 1 each from other games. This is in 315 pass attempts (not including plays he didnt pass he scrambled so its actually more passing plays).

Should we see all the examples of WR not being able to get any separation? I see that a lot when watching the games.

I am curious as to what will happen if we get behind and have to move the ball fast. I don't know if that changes his mindset or not. His highest situational QBR is when we have been behind.

Further more I watch other games and you see most QB's miss opportunities every game. Yea Manning, Brees, and the upper tier guys don't do it much but nobody ever claimed Smith is that level.

He needs to improve but its not like he needs to make a huge leap, he just needs to make a few more plays a game.

Yeah, the idea that this disproves the notion that WRs aren't getting any separation is silly. The WRs are often struggling to get much separation out there.

However, this also raises serious concerns as to whether or not it would make a damn bit of difference. Smith's leaving a ton of plays on the field right now. His generally conservative nature leads to many of those to begin with but now he's playing skittish football as well and it's becoming a serious problem.

I like the guy. I like the acquisition. But there are a lot of things to be concerned about with him right now and he needs to fix them if we hope to make some noise in the playoffs.

[Molitoth]

This same debate happened over Matt Cassel not too long ago.

Some people are fine with a "nice guy" as the Chiefs QB, and some people want "more".

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by Von Dumbass

The coaching staff corrected Balls fumbling issues, apparently Studesville (our RB coach) noticed that Montee wasn't tucking the ball away immediately after receiving the handoff, that's why most of Ball's fumbles came shortly after receiving the handoff. Montee hasn't fumbled since that flaw was corrected.

Jinx comment...

Ball has had all of 21 carries since week 5, including 0 vs the Colts - a game where points and turnovers really mattered. I would hope that he isn't dropping the ball when he's carried it 1, 3, 0, 12 and 5 times over the last 5 games.