*****Trade analysis superthread 2013*****

[AndChiefs]

I figured we may as well have a big thread for trade advice as it will likely get lost in the repository thread.

[mrroandrro]

Originally Posted by AndChiefs

Well..since I'm the team with one kicker I wouldn't be able to tell you.

Apologies, thought you drafted 2 teams

[mrroandrro]

Trying to figure out a trade to land my handcuff Ben Tate. I need some help. 12 team PPR.

My team:
SLOT PLAYER, TEAM POS ACQ
QB Andrew Luck, Ind*QB Draft
RB Arian Foster, Hou*RB**P Draft
WR Randall Cobb, GB*WR**P Draft
TE Jordan Cameron, Cle*TE**P Draft
FLEX Reggie Bush, Det*RB Draft
FLEX Victor Cruz, NYG*WR**P Draft
D/ST Ravens D/ST*D/ST Draft
K Randy Bullock, Hou*K Free Agency
Bench Giovani Bernard, Cin*RB Draft
Bench Vincent Brown, SD*WR Draft
Bench Greg Jennings, Min*WR Draft
Bench Ryan Mathews, SD*RB Draft
Bench Denarius Moore, Oak*WR Draft
Bench Emmanuel Sanders, Pit*WR Draft
IR Percy Harvin*, Sea*WR**O Draft

His team:
QB Peyton Manning, Den*QB Draft
RB Chris Johnson, Ten*RB Draft
WR Dwayne Bowe, KC*WR Draft
TE Jermichael Finley, GB*TE Draft
FLEX DeSean Jackson, Phi*WR Draft
FLEX Trent Richardson, Cle*RB Draft
D/ST Rams D/ST*D/ST Draft
K David Akers, Det*K Draft
Bench Dwayne Allen, Ind*TE**P Draft
Bench Santonio Holmes, NYJ*WR**Q Draft
Bench Daryl Richardson, StL*RB Draft
Bench Alex Smith, KC*QB Draft
Bench Torrey Smith, Bal*WR**P Draft
Bench Ben Tate, Hou*RB Draft
IR *

[ChiefGator]

Originally Posted by mrroandrro

Trying to figure out a trade to land my handcuff Ben Tate. I need some help. 12 team PPR.

Well, he's only got four RBs, so you are likely going to have to trade one back to him. So, your best bet is going to be a WR/RB - WR/RB trade most likely.

I think you are looking pretty good on RB's though. Other than maybe the start of the season, I think the fear for Foster this year is that he will have a nagging injury and may be run down a bit. (His ypc have consistently fallen.) The end result of that is instead of Foster dominating the carries, he may end up with a 60% - 40% time share with Tate. In that scenario, having Tate doesn't really help you that much.

[jspchief]

Originally Posted by ChiefGator

So, I was just proposed a straight-up trade: Gronkowski for my backup Reggie Bush.

I think Bush is up for a monster year (at least pass-catching), but he is my backup for Spiller and Charles and I still have Lamar Miller in the wings.

It lets me keep Greg Olsen though, which really should be a very good 1-2 TE combination, and should make me stronger in the playoffs.

Assuming Gronk is taken off the PUP list tomorrow, what do you think?

-----

I lean toward doing it since it gives me a large upgrade on the TE position, even if most lists have Bush about 5-10 ranks ahead of Gronk on the list of all ranked projected fantasy players.

How the hell do you get Charles, Spiller, and Bush in a ppr league?

[jspchief]

Originally Posted by ChiefGator

Well, he's only got four RBs, so you are likely going to have to trade one back to him. So, your best bet is going to be a WR/RB - WR/RB trade most likely.

I think you are looking pretty good on RB's though. Other than maybe the start of the season, I think the fear for Foster this year is that he will have a nagging injury and may be run down a bit. (His ypc have consistently fallen.) The end result of that is instead of Foster dominating the carries, he may end up with a 60% - 40% time share with Tate. In that scenario, having Tate doesn't really help you that much.

Agree. Even if Foster goes down will you be starting Tate over your current backup RBs?

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by Old Dog

It is a close one but with Lacy as my #17 RB and Shorts as the #25 WR I would take that tandem over Ball (#30 RB) and T. Smith (#18 WR)

BINGO !!

Ball isn't a 'take it to the house guy' and hasn't shown anything special so far and Denver's O-line is suspect like ours in the run game.

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by Bewbies

Standard league, I was offered Bowe for Reggie Wayne. Leaning toward taking it...

Originally Posted by AndChiefs

I think I'd take it as well. I know Wayne surged again last year but he's old and bound to regress. Smith doesn't have a whole lot of targets available.

I get your thinking here BUT Wayne will still out produce Bowe IMO because Smith won't have an O-line to protect him because our interior O-line sucks and Bowe goes back to his ADD hands this year IMHO. Luck is still young and he will still rely on that great chemistry he has with Wayne and I see Luck being a top 5 fantasy QB this year !!

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by AndChiefs

I'd take that Witten deal in a heartbeat. Two RB's with a good backup in a PPR league should be plenty. You're looking at an extra 40-50 receptions from Witten over Olsen.

AGREED. DO IT NOW !!!

Witten is Romo's BINKY at all times and rarely gets hurt. Hell he came back last year before he was actually ready and still produced. Tough as hell.

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by ChiefGator

I have an embarrassment of riches at the RB position (Charles, Spiller, Bush, and Miller in a 1/2 ppr)

At the beginning of every season everyone's team seems very salty because it is on paper. Paper and reality are two different worlds. Not trying to be a Debbie Downer here with all due respect but.....

1. Our interior O-line better get better quickly IF Charles is to have a good to great year. Initially he will only be good out of the backfield and at the WR/Slot positions IMHO and then once opposing D's realize our interior O-line sucks they will start to game for Charles out of the backfield/slot positions and take that away as well.

2. Spiller - injury risk, inconsistent and he plays for the Bills who have QB drama going on which means teams will stack the box until their QB play gets better.

3. Bush - HIGH injury risk and plays behind an O-line that is just about as bad as our interior O-line which means teams will do the same to the Dolphins as they do to the Chiefs. See point 1.

4. Miller - see point 1 without the injury risk.

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by mrroandrro

Trying to figure out a trade to land my handcuff Ben Tate. I need some help. 12 team PPR.


Bench Greg Jennings, Min*WR Draft
Bench Ryan Mathews, SD*RB Draft
or
FLEX Reggie Bush, Det*RB DraftHis team:

Bench Torrey Smith, Bal*WR**P Draft
Bench Ben Tate, Hou*RB Draft
IR *

I'm not a fan of Jennings,Mathews or Bush because of HIGH injury risk and Ponder is throwing to Jennings. Ponder ain't no Aaron Rodgers.

Offer him Jennings and either Bush/Mathews for Smith/Tate and see if he will bite on the big name factor !!

[mrroandrro]

Originally Posted by Chiefshrink

I'm not a fan of Jennings,Mathews or Bush because of HIGH injury risk and Ponder is throwing to Jennings. Ponder ain't no Aaron Rodgers.

Offer him Jennings and either Bush/Mathews for Smith/Tate and see if he will bite on the big name factor !!

Just based on PPR rankings, I'm giving up way to much in either deal. No way u give up Bush who is being drafted in round 2 or 3, or Mathews who's ranked around 50, and Jennings for Tate and Smith. I realize Tate has more value to me due to my having Foster and if Foster suffers injury his value skyrockets, but as it stands now, that's a lot to give up.

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by mrroandrro

Just based on PPR rankings, I'm giving up way to much in either deal. No way u give up Bush who is being drafted in round 2 or 3, or Mathews who's ranked around 50, and Jennings for Tate and Smith. I realize Tate has more value to me due to my having Foster and if Foster suffers injury his value skyrockets, but as it stands now, that's a lot to give up.

No, I said Jennings and either Bush or Mathews not both Bush and Mathews.

But on a more serious note. PPR rankings ? Seriously ?? You are going by somebody's so-called projected analysis numbers and where they are supposedly suppose to rank this year and not their real past history ?

Here is just small micro-example of how wrong and inaccurate a lot of these so-called projected analysis/value rankings(magazines/so-called expersts) can be. Remember the big Darren McFadden craze just recently when everyone and their brother said THIS was his breakout year and he would just absolutely TEAR IT UP ?? Almost every ranking had him top 5 RB if not higher that year. What happened ? McFadden got injured. They are to some degree doing this to Bush this year and they(so-called experts) have always had a 'woody' for Mathews as well waiting for his so called break out year. Won't happen for either one of these guys because their 'real history' say's INJURY PRONE to the point of not drafting from my perspective. Jennings has been VERY injury prone in the last 3yrs and is in the latter stages of his career while Ponder is throwing to him. The so-called experts do this every year by PIMPING UP a select few so-called BIG NAMES that have NEVER produced big fantasy numbers 'consistently' in their careers due to their 'consistent injuries' every year. Jennings,Mathews and Bush are walking injuries !!!

Honestly DO YOUR OWN RANKINGS/RESEARCH based on REAL HISTORICAL EVIDENCE FIRST and then your fantasy draft and play will improve.

Here's a tip. Never fall in love with the BIG NAME alone. The consistent production and very little injury history MUST BE PRESENT to warrant a draft pick IMO. If you do risk it better be in the very late rounds. A lot of the times the BIG NAME does match up with the consistent BIG PLAY and a lot of the times the BIG NAME is just that and no more. The wise analyst can see the difference.

Nothing personal here just trying to help BUT I think you are 'that guy' that automatically loves the BIG NAME without looking at the 'real evidence'.

[The Bad Guy]

Got offered Doug Martin, Nicks, Steve Smith and Britt for Ridley, Steven Jax, Pierre Garçon and Josh Gordon. I have Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw as backups but I think I'm declining this. I love my RB depth and Garçon.

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by The Bad Guy

Got offered Doug Martin, Nicks, Steve Smith and Britt for Ridley, Steven Jax, Pierre Garçon and Josh Gordon. I have Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw as backups but I think I'm declining this. I love my RB depth and Garçon.

Let's do the Ben Franklin Pro/Con analysis and then you can decide for yourself.

Here is my pro/con analysis of your situation FWIW:

Doug Martin=Good-will get a lot of carries because Schiano like to run and that is Schiano's boy he picked and that division is weak against the run IMO.

Nicks=Fair-only because he is getting injured more often and Manning and his offense have a bad tendency these past few years to go in 'FUNKS" for weeks at a time which YOU cannot afford BUT when their O is on Nicks and Cruz really cruise! I wish you had Cruz instead of Nicks here if you are dealing with Manning because he targets Cruz more.

Steve Smith=Fair-I'm not a Newton fan and since Newton has become the Panthers QB, Smith's production is not what it used to be. Yes he is the only NO.1 target BUT defenses know this and double him now thus the reason for less production. If Cam were more mature and had a legit No.2 I would say Smith goes from 'fair' to 'good' !!

Britt=Good-flat out playmaker regardless of his 5 cent head off the field. When he is on the field he balls !! Locker has finally realized how good Britt is and will target him even more. Having CJ as his teammate only helps his production.

Ridley=Fair-Ridley is tearing it up in pre-season and looks to be 'the guy'. But when since Corey Dillion has Bellichek every gone with 'the one guy' at RB ??? There you go. Don't get me wrong I like how Ridley runs be he does not get enough touches for me because of Bellichek.

Steven Jackson=Fair-he will not get enough touches as well in this RBBC approach either. The only thing you can hope for is that since he is in a weak Run D division as well that he gets all the goal line touches. Rogers is on the rise and will get more touches and this Vaughn kid is a young Michael Turner. Of those 3 backs I would want Rogers for now.

Pierre Garcon=Good- Both RGIII and Cousins trust this guy and he should produce and Shanahan loves this guy. And if Shanny loves you, you will get targeted.

Josh Gordon=Good- I want to give this player an 'excellent' rating but I don't quite trust Weeden just yet. I love this kid's balling ability. He is like watching a man among boys competing for the ball and making big plays.

Trent Richardson=tentative Good- I think Jim Brown was right saying that TR is soft and so far it is proving true. Yes he can be a playmaker and he will get the touches but can he stay healthy ?

Ahmad Bradshaw=Fair-yes he is a playmaker but hell he has missed all of the pre-season because of injuries and he has consistently shown since day one of his career that he is highly injury prone. I like the way that he runs but I'm not falling for the big name either.

There you have it !! You decide !

[The Bad Guy]

Pretty solid analysis, but I think Steven Jackson is going to have a monster year. Terrible defensive division, playing with a ton of playmakers, gets all the goal line carries. I don't think he's going to be part of any committee in Atlanta.