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World's Best Boss
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bronco Country
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*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***
Chiefsplanet’s (Proposed) 2017 Season Title: One Last Ride
Midish-Season Update (Royals 51-47, 2nd Wild Card, 1.5 GB of ALC): We're halfway through 2017, and fittingly to the Chiefsplanet's 2017 Season Title, the Royals are all-in on what will likely be one final run with the current core. While many are worried the Royals will take a 2004 style tumble after this year, the farm system is hardly the barren wasteland it was during the Baird years. To see what's in the pipeline and what we have to look forward to, check out this exceptional list and analysis that Duncan put together of our system. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0 While I had the honor of starting this thread this year, Duncan will always have a VIP pass to this OP, and can add more content at any time. 2017's Burning Questions Revisited: 1. What is the threshold between being “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline? We're buyers, baby. In April, I argued that it would be a wise strategy for us to sell if we were 5 GB or worse, but that Dayton would likely add supplemental pieces for us to load up for another run if we were 1-2 GB. On July 24th, the Royals found themselves in sole possession of the 2nd wild card spot and 1.5 games back of the division. In April I said the Royals might pull the trigger on someone like Alex Cobb and resign Luke Hochevar, but since the Rays are also buyers and Luke's shoulder hasn't rebounded, this prediction hasn't come to fruition. Luckily, Dayton Moore again proved much more adept and creative than me by adding Trevor Cahill (good call, Duncan), Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter in a single trade. Giving us a solid starter to compete in 2017, and two relievers whom we will control through 2019 and 2021, respectively, keeping Moore's new vision through 2019-2020 intact. Moore has hinted that the Royals will continue to pursue the right deals if they're there, so the fun may not be over just yet. While we may not have the bullets to pull in a "star" like Cueto or Zo, Moore's adeptness may yet again net us what we need for another run in October. 2. Can Gordo and Moose bounce back to 2015 levels? In April I asked if Gordo could at least set the table at a 265/325/425 clip and if Moose could deliver damage around a 265/335/500 clip for an entire year. This season Mr. Moustakas has been the prospect that was promised, delivering at a 277/307/568 clip as of this update. Gordo, on the other hand, has put up an unbelievably abysmal line thus far. But, if there is a silver lining, it's that Gordo has performed at a 246/311/432 line since June 1st, and if he can continue to perform near that mark, he will be more than a valuable asset at the bottom of the lineup while he continues to provide the best LF defense in the league. 3. Can Ned Yost manage a bullpen? In April, I felt that despite the poor start, Royals bullpen would ultimately be "solid" this year, but the question was whether "solid" was good enough for Ned. I argued that the Royals needed Soria to bounce back and that Ned would need to start being strategic in his L/L and R/R matchups. While Ned has still made at times baffling and frustrating decisions with his starters (such as allowing Travis Wood to try to "get the win" and still insisting on sending Hammel out for the 6th, he's mostly done a good job). MASH: Minor/Moylan - Alexander - Soria - Herrera (Credit to C3HIEF3S for the origins of the phrase) have cemented into reliable pieces, and now that Herrera is showing signs of stabilizing, our dumping of Wood, our call up Flynn, and the acquisition of Buchter and Maurer, the Royals have the potential to enter October with one of the best and deepest bullpens in the postseason. 4. Will the Royals find a boost from an unexpected X-Factor to lift them to contention? Cool-Whit, Boni, Mike ****ing Minor, and Alexander have come up huge thus far. Cool Whit is, incredibly, is second on the team in WAR and has more than replaced Zo's presence on the team. They, like the X-Factors on the 2014-2015 teams, have been critical cogs as we've raced back to contention, while Cool-Whit and Boni also have provided a rosier outlook for this team's future. It's worth noting that Salvador Perez and Jason Vargas has been beasts on offense and the mound (along with Sal providing his customary defensive excellence), but I am still a bit wary of Salvy's annual Yost assisted offensive drought as the team moves into August, along with Vargy regressing to his averages. 5. Can Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss be productive contributors in Kauffman’s dimensions? Ouch, no, but the Royals shift to power-hitting in the juiced ball era looks like one that will pay off. Thankfully, Moss is showing signs of entering his seasonal hot streak where he becomes corn-fed Jesus for a month, and we'll need him hot to keep up with Cleveland down the stretch. While Jorge has been painful to watch in the majors, his scorching performance in AAA should give one a bright hope for the future. While some may disagree, I offer Moose, Hos, Gordo, and Duffy's struggles as exhibit A for why it is far too early to give up on Soler's potential. Bonus Question - Is Raul Mondesi truly ready to be an everyday player? Ha! Not even close. However, like Soler, his progress in AAA is incredibly encouraging. With ceilings like Lindor and floors being Esky being thrown out there, it's hard not to be excited about his future. The Picture Forward There are many reasons to be excited, and not only for 2017. The Royals emergence of Cool Whit, Bonifacio, and Scott Alexander, and the fact that we have pieces like Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera, Jorge Soler, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer Cheslor Cuthbert, and Raul Mondesi until at least 2019 should leave one feeling pretty optimistic. Re-up Moose or Hos (and heck, re-sign Dyson while we're at it), and suddenly this team looks very much like one that could compete for the indefinite future. The Royals are all in again, buckle in and enjoy the ride. April OP:
Spoiler!
Last edited by Chiefspants; 08-02-2017 at 01:53 PM.. |
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#4111 |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: L.A.
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#4112 |
The Insider
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Lake of the Ozarks
Casino cash: $1828752
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#4113 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
Casino cash: $2519099
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Quote:
Starting in about 2014 - when the Royals actually got good - Glass made a serious commitment to the squad and the Royals payroll has been roughly lead-average. Hell, this year their payroll is higher than STLs, IIRC. So your 'challenge' here is a little on the vauge side. I mean ultimately Andrew Friedman didn't win a title, but his payroll constraints were far more onerous than the Royals were. And there have been teams that have one championships because they had cost-controlled players in the early parts of their career. Luhnow and the Astros are in that kind of window. Which is why the Royals won. Moore has had to make one truly 'payroll oriented' move in the last several years and that's trading Zack Greinke. And even that wasn't truly payroll oriented as much as it was wanting to move an asset before he lost him (nobody expected Greinke to stay in KC as a California kid anyway, money be damned). NOW he's going to feel a payroll pinch, for sure. And NOW is when you'll see just how good he is. But hell, the Royals were sporting higher payrolls than 'big market' teams like the Orioles, and White Sox at points over the last few years. Payroll hasn't been a problem for them during this window of 'unparalleled success'. When they've needed a piece, they've gotten it.
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"If there's a god, he's laughing at us.....and our football team..." "When you look at something through rose colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags." |
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#4114 |
Special Teams ACE!!!
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Where the hell is SNR
Casino cash: $1870208
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And it's another reason why Prison Bitch is at times an intolerable pest to this forum.
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Posts: 90,826
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#4115 | |
Supporter
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Hollywood, CA
Casino cash: $10053648
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Quote:
That said, I'd think that if the Chiefs had missed on as many top 10 picks as the Chiefs, the GM would have been fired long ago. Especially considering Clark's itchy trigger finger. |
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#4116 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
Casino cash: $2519099
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Quote:
Vallot doesn't have a home in STL's system. There's obviously the Yadi problem but beyond that, the Cardinals have probably the best overall catching prospect in baseball right now in Carson Kelly. He's not amazing at anything, but he won the minor league gold glove at C in his first full season at the position and has only gotten better since. His hit tool has come far enough that you could probably play him part-time at 3b (his HS position) and not hate what you get for your trouble. You're not kidding about the state of your farm, man. It's in tatters. It's hard to find many guys to really like down there. For just about every player there's a huge 'BUT' in the scouting report. You look at Khalil Lee and you see a nice power/speed combo then you realize his hit tool is shit (120 Ks in 305 ABs in A ball?!?!?) and he's been caught stealing 15 times to his 16 successful attempts. Josh Staumont still has electric velocity and no goddamn idea where the ball is going. Nicky Lopez may be the best bet to make the majors in the system and as noted, I just see a utility player there. I can kinda see the frustration with Moore when I look at that farm. It's really taken a beating in the last few years.
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"If there's a god, he's laughing at us.....and our football team..." "When you look at something through rose colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags." |
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#4117 | |
World's Best Boss
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bronco Country
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Quote:
That success speaks to the prudent and efficient spending the Royals FO practiced to get the most out of their investments, and speaks to how rare the Royals accomplishment in 2015 truly was. It is true that Moore hasn't been as efficient with his spending since 2015. The signings of Chris Young, Alex Gordon, and Brandon Moss have hurt, but Moore players like Mike Minor, Scott Alexander, Jorge Bonifacio, Matt Strahm, Whit Merrifield and Cheslor Cuthbert have kept the Royals competitive over the last two summers. Moore hasn't been perfect and has made errors in judgment, but his success should afford him patience over the "FIRE GMDM" I've been starting to see on Facebook. Last edited by Chiefspants; 07-19-2017 at 12:46 PM.. |
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#4118 | |
M-I-Z-Z-O-U
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Kansas City
Casino cash: $1270308
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Quote:
You just can't compare the NFL draft and how it works to the MLB draft and how it works. With the NFL draft, your difficulty in identifying talent is so much lower. It is much more based on physical ability and ability to stay healthy. You also have the built in, free college farm system, and ALL the premium talent is moving in through that avenue. And players you're getting in that process are basically finished products who just need a little nudging. With MLB, you've got the split between high school and college picks to make. The premium talent is usually high school level talent. You've got to project how those Hs guys will mature, while also dealing with the transition from metal bats to wood bats, the mental grind, and, when evaluating pitchers, trying to put a finger on how their body will react to doing the most unnatural thing in sports 10,000+ times or more a year. Oh, and they have to develop their overall skills to the pro game, too. I'd say drafting MLB talent would compare to the NFL IF every NFL pick was a QB, and you were drafting 1/2 to 2/3 of them out of HS, and the football was different in the pros in size and weight. And even with all that, Dayton Moore's track record with first round picks isn't THAT bad compared to his peers. It's above average. 2017 - Pratto (too early to tell anything) 2016 - None (forfeited to sign Kennedy) 2015 - Trezelle Jenkins-level disaster 2014 - Finnegan (huge success), Griffin (looks like something between a mid- and back-rotation starter, which is solid for a sandwich pick), Chase Vallot (long way to go, but potential) 2013 - Dozier (lost year to injury but looks like at least an MLB regular), Manaea (cashed in for a WS title) 2012 - Zimmer (disappointment, might still be an elite reliever, but it's all injury related. Similar to a prize WR or RB blowing out a knee and never coming back right) 2011 - Starling (trending to bust status, might still be an acceptable regular if hitting gains of 2017 hold up) 2010 - Colon is a bust 2009 - Aaron Crow (not what they hoped to get, but got a few good relief years and cashed him in for another solid reliever. Not a bust pick, actually) 2008 - Hosmer (huge hit), Mike Montgomery (huge hit, key trade piece) 2007 - Moustakas (huge hit) Of those picks, six were top 10 picks. Two were huge successes (and were also the highest two picks, inside the top 3). One was a huge bust. One is a disappointment due to injury. Two are still TBD, with a good chance of getting at least quality MLB regular out of one of them. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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#4119 | |
M-I-Z-Z-O-U
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Kansas City
Casino cash: $1270308
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Quote:
Big part of that beating has come through trades, though missing in the comp balanace lottery 3 years in a row, sacrificing a pick to sign Kennedy, and drafting lower all contribute as well. I profiled around 40 prospects last week, believe CP linked it in the OP if you want to look at it. Lopez probably has the highest floor. Don't think he's an impact starter, but his D is good enough and his OBP and contact skills are good enough to carve out a MLB regular role. There are some intriguing guys at the lower levels, and there are some post-hype guys here and there, and a few guys who look like excellent back-end relievers. But yeah, it's not what it was been. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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"You gotta love livin', cause dying is a pain in the ass." ---- Sinatra |
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#4120 |
Stay positive, don't give up
Join Date: Dec 2001
Casino cash: $3179383
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@jonmorosi: #Indians were only other team seriously involved in J.D. Martinez pursuit this week, source said. Certainly influenced #Tigers return. @MLB
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#4121 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
Casino cash: $2519099
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Quote:
The Cubs did it when Theo showed up. The Astros did it. The Chisox did it. Philly and Atlanta are trying it to varying degrees of success. They are all doing it on purpose to stock up draft picks and roll out a 'superfarm' that turns them from a 100 loss team to a 100 win team in the span of about 3 years. And in doing that, they're able to roll out a squad with 60-70% cost controlled players. They're trying to avoid the squishy middle - if you can't be good, just be really bad and accumulate bonus pool/prospects. The Royals did the same thing, they just did it on accident. The sucked so hard for so long that they built 'The Greatest Farm System in History'...remember? And it was on those cost controlled players that they build a champion. It's nitpicky, but there's truth there. Moore didn't have to sit through the 10 years of shit to build that farm. He came in on the back side of it with the farm already starting to recover. He made some nice picks as well but with draft position made possible by the steaming pile his predecessors gave him. That's not really THAT amazing, if you think about it. And I think we'll see more and more teams doing that going forward.
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"If there's a god, he's laughing at us.....and our football team..." "When you look at something through rose colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags." |
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#4122 | |
World's Best Boss
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bronco Country
Casino cash: $5654654
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Quote:
Now, the Royals being terrible did give Moore high draft picks coming in (Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Zack Greinke and Hoch) and some to allow him to start carrying out his systemwide vision (Hos, Moose, Monty, etc). But the Royals system as a whole was among the worst in baseball, forcing Moore to essentially rebuild it from the ground up. |
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#4123 |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Aug 2005
Casino cash: $7327995
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2015 - Trezelle Jenkins-level disaster
What are the Odds that 2 different Franchises in the same City- choose a guy named Trezelle Jenkins with a high draft pick....and they both end up being a colossal bust? A million to 1 maybe? That would be a great trivia question. |
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#4124 | |
MVP
Join Date: Feb 2013
Casino cash: $1091116
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Quote:
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#4125 |
M-I-Z-Z-O-U
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Kansas City
Casino cash: $1270308
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It's also worth pointing out that Moore's "best farm system ever!" group wasn't built solely on the backs of Top 5 picks like Hosmer and Moustakas.
It featured guys drafted in later rounds who blossomed, or guys given big bonuses out of a later round pick to convince them to sign (Wil Myers, John Lamb, Dwyer) as well as pulling depth in from signings in Latin America (many of those lower dollar signs like Perez or Ventura). Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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