*** Official Royals Repository, Part 4 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
4. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
5. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
6. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
7. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

8. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Is this a good place to mention that Dave Cameron, the head editor/writer at Fangraphs, whiffed on every single playoff prediction he made for the AL.

Not only not pick a wildcard or division winner correctly, EVERY SINGLE TEAM HE PICKED IN THE PRESEASON FAILED TO QUALIFY FOR THE PLAYOFFS.

He picked the Red Sox, Tigers and Angels to win divisions (hey, at least the Angels didn't finish dead ****ing last like the other two).

He picked Seattle and Cleveland in the wildcards (who finished 10 and 4.5 games out of the WC, respectively).

Wait - you had Houston, Texas, Jays, KC and Yanks????

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Is this a good place to mention that Dave Cameron, the head editor/writer at Fangraphs, whiffed on every single playoff prediction he made for the AL.

Not only not pick a wildcard or division winner correctly, EVERY SINGLE TEAM HE PICKED IN THE PRESEASON FAILED TO QUALIFY FOR THE PLAYOFFS.

He picked the Red Sox, Tigers and Angels to win divisions (hey, at least the Angels didn't finish dead ****ing last like the other two).

He picked Seattle and Cleveland in the wildcards (who finished 10 and 4.5 games out of the WC, respectively).

Someone should pressure this clown to resign. I get being off on just the Royals and a few other teams, but you could not try to make a prediction any worse. There is no excuse for it from a predictive publication like that.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Wait - you had Houston, Texas, Jays, KC and Yanks????

I'm not sure many people in America would have picked that.

[chiefqueen]

Originally Posted by Bowser

It just dawned on me that we finished with 95 wins while having a losing September. I'm sure that's not the first time something like that ever happened, but still impressive nonetheless.

In 1980 the Royals finished with 97 wins and had an even worse September. The 1977 team, the only Royals team to win 100+ games, played lights out in September, and that team had to play like 4 or 5 DH's in 8 days b/c of heavy rains (Plaza flood) and the scheduled doubleheaders. (Yes, there was a time when doubleheaders were built into the schedule.)

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Wait - you had Houston, Texas, Jays, KC and Yanks????

No (though I did have the Royals winning the Central and liked the Yankees as a wild card team)... But when you're paid to write about and analyze the game, you'd think a guy could do better than going 0/5 in a league, and picking two teams to win their division that ended up finishing last.

I find it funny that Cameron - who unlike most SABRE guys, won't admit the possibility that there's SOMETHING he is missing (I listen to all of the Baseball Pro pods, and those guys in general are willing to admit it when there's something for which their models are not accounting) - was so dead wrong. About everything.

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Is this a good place to mention that Dave Cameron, the head editor/writer at Fangraphs, whiffed on every single playoff prediction he made for the AL.

Not only did he not pick a wildcard or division winner correctly, EVERY SINGLE TEAM HE PICKED IN THE PRESEASON FAILED TO QUALIFY FOR THE PLAYOFFS.

He picked the Red Sox, Tigers and Angels to win divisions (hey, at least the Angels didn't finish dead ****ing last like the other two).

He picked Seattle and Cleveland in the wildcards (who finished 10 and 4.5 games out of the WC, respectively).

Jesus is to Christians as Dave Cameron is to Prison Bitch.
He may struggle with this.

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Wait - you had Houston, Texas, Jays, KC and Yanks????

Wait - you had the Royals only winning 84 games?

[Hootie]

I'm not sure if I predicted anything other than the Royals being disgustingly underrated by the "experts" ... but in November 2014 I did smoke out a $25 bet on the Cubs at 28:1 to win the WS in Vegas thinking they'd land Lester and Shields. I'm sure it will end up being about as valuable as my 9:1 $100 bet on the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl at the same time.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Wait - you had the Royals only winning 84 games?

I didn't have any playoff teams. I suspect you had only 1, and only because you cheer for them (homer factor)


There are prob some folks down in HOU that picked the Astros too.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

No (though I did have the Royals winning the Central and liked the Yankees as a wild card team)... But when you're paid to write about and analyze the game, you'd think a guy could do better than going 0/5 in a league, and picking two teams to win their division that ended up finishing last.

I find it funny that Cameron - who unlike most SABRE guys, won't admit the possibility that there's SOMETHING he is missing (I listen to all of the Baseball Pro pods, and those guys in general are willing to admit it when there's something for which their models are not accounting) - was so dead wrong. About everything.

You're putting way too much stock into preeason predictions. I consider you a baseball expert and don't care how many picks you hit or miss. The standard error for preeason picks is +/- 8 games anyway so nobody really knows.


Cameron is a Seattle homer so that explains one of his flubs. But they were only 1 game out last year, brought everyone back and added Cruz who ended up hitting 44HR. Not sure what happened there.

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

I didn't have any playoff teams. I suspect you had only 1, and only because you cheer for them (homer factor)


There are prob some folks down in HOU that picked the Astros too.

Yeah, (homer factor) ...

we won 86 in '13
we won 89 in '14

we won 89 despite NOT HITTING AT ALL

I predicted Moose & Hosmer to take a leap as well as Cain becoming a bona fide star.

I thought Volquez would pitch about as well as Shields in our park with our defense.

It was super tough to imagine a team who won 89 games in 2014 despite nobody .OPS'ing even close to .800 might actually be better ... considering they went to game 7 of the WS and all

super big homer there

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

You're putting way too much stock into preeason predictions. I consider you a baseball expert and don't care how many picks you hit or miss. The standard error for preeason picks is +/- 8 games anyway so nobody really knows.


Cameron is a Seattle homer so that explains one of his flubs. But they were only 1 game out last year, brought everyone back and added Cruz who ended up hitting 44HR. Not sure what happened there.

I just like poking fun at Dave Cameron, because I think he's a smug prick who won't admit that he/his team/Fangraphs' models do occasionally have problems and get things wrong.

He's the master of the "Why we were right, even though we were wrong" response.

As for Seattle... what happened to them was Cano being really shitty in the first half, combined with Felix Hernandez pitching like a mortal, some injuries, and the bullpen imploding like Ryan Lefebrve every time he spots Fernando Rodney.

[Snapplez]

Bought tickets to the Rangers/Blue Jays game 3. Will scout potential opposition

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by BWillie

I guess that explains why he hasn't been any good for three years. Could actually be a good thing for the Yankees in the short term, not going to be difficult to replace that 5 ERA

This is actually a significant loss for New York if they advance past the wild card game. You might look at his 2015 stats and think its not a huge loss, but Sabathia had a good August and a great September, so he's been rolling right along in his most recent starts.

edit: apparently his teammates had no idea he was going to do this.

[ChiefsCountry]

New name for the playoffs