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Old 04-05-2017, 10:55 AM  
Chiefspants Chiefspants is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***

Chiefsplanet’s (Proposed) 2017 Season Title: One Last Ride

Midish-Season Update (Royals 51-47, 2nd Wild Card, 1.5 GB of ALC):

We're halfway through 2017, and fittingly to the Chiefsplanet's 2017 Season Title, the Royals are all-in on what will likely be one final run with the current core. While many are worried the Royals will take a 2004 style tumble after this year, the farm system is hardly the barren wasteland it was during the Baird years. To see what's in the pipeline and what we have to look forward to, check out this exceptional list and analysis that Duncan put together of our system.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0

While I had the honor of starting this thread this year, Duncan will always have a VIP pass to this OP, and can add more content at any time.

2017's Burning Questions Revisited:

1. What is the threshold between being “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline?

We're buyers, baby.

In April, I argued that it would be a wise strategy for us to sell if we were 5 GB or worse, but that Dayton would likely add supplemental pieces for us to load up for another run if we were 1-2 GB. On July 24th, the Royals found themselves in sole possession of the 2nd wild card spot and 1.5 games back of the division. In April I said the Royals might pull the trigger on someone like Alex Cobb and resign Luke Hochevar, but since the Rays are also buyers and Luke's shoulder hasn't rebounded, this prediction hasn't come to fruition. Luckily, Dayton Moore again proved much more adept and creative than me by adding Trevor Cahill (good call, Duncan), Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter in a single trade. Giving us a solid starter to compete in 2017, and two relievers whom we will control through 2019 and 2021, respectively, keeping Moore's new vision through 2019-2020 intact. Moore has hinted that the Royals will continue to pursue the right deals if they're there, so the fun may not be over just yet. While we may not have the bullets to pull in a "star" like Cueto or Zo, Moore's adeptness may yet again net us what we need for another run in October.

2. Can Gordo and Moose bounce back to 2015 levels?

In April I asked if Gordo could at least set the table at a 265/325/425 clip and if Moose could deliver damage around a 265/335/500 clip for an entire year. This season Mr. Moustakas has been the prospect that was promised, delivering at a 277/307/568 clip as of this update. Gordo, on the other hand, has put up an unbelievably abysmal line thus far. But, if there is a silver lining, it's that Gordo has performed at a 246/311/432 line since June 1st, and if he can continue to perform near that mark, he will be more than a valuable asset at the bottom of the lineup while he continues to provide the best LF defense in the league.

3. Can Ned Yost manage a bullpen?

In April, I felt that despite the poor start, Royals bullpen would ultimately be "solid" this year, but the question was whether "solid" was good enough for Ned. I argued that the Royals needed Soria to bounce back and that Ned would need to start being strategic in his L/L and R/R matchups. While Ned has still made at times baffling and frustrating decisions with his starters (such as allowing Travis Wood to try to "get the win" and still insisting on sending Hammel out for the 6th, he's mostly done a good job).

MASH: Minor/Moylan - Alexander - Soria - Herrera (Credit to C3HIEF3S for the origins of the phrase) have cemented into reliable pieces, and now that Herrera is showing signs of stabilizing, our dumping of Wood, our call up Flynn, and the acquisition of Buchter and Maurer, the Royals have the potential to enter October with one of the best and deepest bullpens in the postseason.

4. Will the Royals find a boost from an unexpected X-Factor to lift them to contention?

Cool-Whit, Boni, Mike ****ing Minor, and Alexander have come up huge thus far. Cool Whit is, incredibly, is second on the team in WAR and has more than replaced Zo's presence on the team. They, like the X-Factors on the 2014-2015 teams, have been critical cogs as we've raced back to contention, while Cool-Whit and Boni also have provided a rosier outlook for this team's future. It's worth noting that Salvador Perez and Jason Vargas has been beasts on offense and the mound (along with Sal providing his customary defensive excellence), but I am still a bit wary of Salvy's annual Yost assisted offensive drought as the team moves into August, along with Vargy regressing to his averages.

5. Can Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss be productive contributors in Kauffman’s dimensions?

Ouch, no, but the Royals shift to power-hitting in the juiced ball era looks like one that will pay off. Thankfully, Moss is showing signs of entering his seasonal hot streak where he becomes corn-fed Jesus for a month, and we'll need him hot to keep up with Cleveland down the stretch. While Jorge has been painful to watch in the majors, his scorching performance in AAA should give one a bright hope for the future. While some may disagree, I offer Moose, Hos, Gordo, and Duffy's struggles as exhibit A for why it is far too early to give up on Soler's potential.

Bonus Question - Is Raul Mondesi truly ready to be an everyday player?

Ha! Not even close. However, like Soler, his progress in AAA is incredibly encouraging. With ceilings like Lindor and floors being Esky being thrown out there, it's hard not to be excited about his future.

The Picture Forward

There are many reasons to be excited, and not only for 2017. The Royals emergence of Cool Whit, Bonifacio, and Scott Alexander, and the fact that we have pieces like Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera, Jorge Soler, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer Cheslor Cuthbert, and Raul Mondesi until at least 2019 should leave one feeling pretty optimistic. Re-up Moose or Hos (and heck, re-sign Dyson while we're at it), and suddenly this team looks very much like one that could compete for the indefinite future.

The Royals are all in again, buckle in and enjoy the ride.

April OP:

Spoiler!

Last edited by Chiefspants; 08-02-2017 at 01:53 PM..
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Old 07-05-2017, 03:19 PM   #3346
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Just saw Moose on Intentional Talk. If he were to go to go to Cali I really don't see a fit there. He's from the San Fernando Valley. He has a daughter and I would think you would want to raise her in the Midwest and not LA
Why on Earth would a guy that grew up in California want to raise his child in the Midwest? If anything, he would want to raise his child in the same place he grew up to mimic those values. I think Moose is the guy out of Cain and Hosmer that I would say least WANTS to resign. Sure at any sum of money anyone will resign. Personally, I don't think we resign any of them. I would like to resign Cain because he is the best of the bunch and he will get a reasonable deal due to his age but I can't blame Dayton for being gunshy on aging outfielders. I sure as shit hope we don't sign Hosmer because you are getting very little value compared to a replacement on what you spend.

If we can get Moose, great, but I just have a feeling he is the least probable, while Hosmer being the most probably to resign.
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Old 07-05-2017, 03:20 PM   #3347
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****ing badass analysis top to bottom.
First, I completely agree with you. I think Vargas is due for a regression just like the one he experienced in 2014. I think many people forget just how good he was to start off 2014. He was every bit as good as Santana and Shields, and I think the majority had forgotten about that due to his performance in September, the World Series and his injury plagued 2015. I personally will be very surprised if his era stays in the sub-3 range before the end of 2017.

With that said, if he stays at a defense assisted sub-3 era and manages over 200 innings, I think people are going to jump for Vargas over the offseason. If you or I were a GM, we'd look at Vargas' strand rate, and likely consider his numbers to be an anomaly and the product of a small sample size, however, GM's in the MLB have proven to not conduct themselves with this level of quantitative analysis, and this is especially true in the era when starting pitchers have stratospheric demand.

The reason simply comes back down to Rich Hill. I know have been beating this drum throughout this thread. However, let's look at Rich Hill's career stats.

Career ERA:

Jason Vargas 4.03
Rich Hill: 4.09

Career FIP:

Jason Vargas: 4.25
Rich Hill: 3.98

Career WHIP:

Jason Vargas: 1.294
Rich Hill: 1.292

Innings Pitched:

Jason Vargas: 1323.0
Rich Hill: 664.1

Age:

Jason Vargas: 34
Rich Hill: 37

In addition, before 2015, Rich Hill had not even started a game since 2009, he had no pitched more than 58 innings in a season coming into 2016, and in 2016, he only managed 110.1 innings and still managed to get 3/48. People are paying stupid amounts of money for starters.

While it's tough to find comps at Vargas' age. (Rich Hill and John Lackey (2/32) signed at age 37) but the fact that Ricky Nolasco got 4/49, Wei-Yin Chen got 5/80, Jordan Zimmerman pulled 5/110, and even Jeff Samardzija pulled 5/90 which speaks to how crazy the market is right now. If Vargas finishes strong, I think some GM of a high-payroll team desperate for a starting pitcher will pull the trigger on Vargas, and I think Vargas' agent will advise him to pursue that opportunity over a 1/17 deal, especially since an older John Lackey pulled comparable numbers on a 2 year deal.

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Old 07-05-2017, 03:21 PM   #3348
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Why on Earth would a guy that grew up in California want to raise his child in the Midwest? If anything, he would want to raise his child in the same place he grew up to mimic those values. I think Moose is the guy out of Cain and Hosmer that I would say least WANTS to resign. Sure at any sum of money anyone will resign. Personally, I don't think we resign any of them. I would like to resign Cain because he is the best of the bunch and he will get a reasonable deal due to his age but I can't blame Dayton for being gunshy on aging outfielders. I sure as shit hope we don't sign Hosmer because you are getting very little value compared to a replacement on what you spend.

If we can get Moose, great, but I just have a feeling he is the least probable, while Hosmer being the most probably to resign.
lewdog told you we should resign Hosmer. This seals it.
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Old 07-05-2017, 03:23 PM   #3349
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She will grow up and be a stripper


What would be her stripper name? Hopefully something related to Moose dongs.
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Old 07-05-2017, 03:31 PM   #3350
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Why on Earth would a guy that grew up in California want to raise his child in the Midwest? If anything, he would want to raise his child in the same place he grew up to mimic those values. I think Moose is the guy out of Cain and Hosmer that I would say least WANTS to resign. Sure at any sum of money anyone will resign. Personally, I don't think we resign any of them. I would like to resign Cain because he is the best of the bunch and he will get a reasonable deal due to his age but I can't blame Dayton for being gunshy on aging outfielders. I sure as shit hope we don't sign Hosmer because you are getting very little value compared to a replacement on what you spend.

If we can get Moose, great, but I just have a feeling he is the least probable, while Hosmer being the most probably to resign.

Goddamn, that's easily the dumbest thing I've read here in a while. And OaklandHater is an abortion on the politics board.



As if you could possibly know what their "values" even are
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Old 07-05-2017, 03:42 PM   #3351
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@OMAStormChasers: @MiguelAlmonte27 @crazylegselman In addition, RHP Josh Staumont has been transferred to Double-A @nwanaturals. Our active roster stands at 24.

http://atmilb.com/2ti1gVg

Looks like Staumont demoted to AA...was hoping this guy would find the strike zone

In a corresponding move, right-hander*Josh Staumont*has been transferred to Double-A Northwest Arkansas. In 16 outings (15 starts) with Omaha, the 23-year-old posted a 3-8 mark and 6.28 ERA (53 ER/76.0 IP), adding 93 strikeouts.
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Old 07-05-2017, 03:42 PM   #3352
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It's not that far stretched as people make it seem to be. Moore has already said he will try and do everything he can to re sign the core. They have increased payroll every year and with the new tv contract coming up the payroll will increase. Glass I feel like will poney up the money.
Well by god if DM says they are going to try than that changes everything. You suspected DM would say management would not even try to resign the core? No GM would say that in their right mind even if it is true. The underlying question is can they even afford it even if they wanted to? Sure payroll has gone up and a new TV deal will make a difference, but these are all just peanut dollars to what the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc. have in their coffers. If any of these franchises want them bad enough, we are not going to outbid them.
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Old 07-05-2017, 03:57 PM   #3353
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Well by god if DM says they are going to try than that changes everything. You suspected DM would say management would not even try to resign the core? No GM would say that in their right mind even if it is true. The underlying question is can they even afford it even if they wanted to? Sure payroll has gone up and a new TV deal will make a difference, but these are all just peanut dollars to what the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc. have in their coffers. If any of these franchises want them bad enough, we are not going to outbid them.
Dodgers won't be interestedin Moose or Hosmer. Yanks and Red Sox maybe
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Old 07-05-2017, 04:26 PM   #3354
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@OMAStormChasers: @MiguelAlmonte27 @crazylegselman In addition, RHP Josh Staumont has been transferred to Double-A @nwanaturals. Our active roster stands at 24.

http://atmilb.com/2ti1gVg

Looks like Staumont demoted to AA...was hoping this guy would find the strike zone

In a corresponding move, right-hander*Josh Staumont*has been transferred to Double-A Northwest Arkansas. In 16 outings (15 starts) with Omaha, the 23-year-old posted a 3-8 mark and 6.28 ERA (53 ER/76.0 IP), adding 93 strikeouts.
He's been a huge disappointment. Thank god Foster Griffin has had a good year. But he's a 1st rounder and if you did a re-draft nobody would draft him above the 5th round. Doesn't look to have front line starter potential even with his results so far.
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Old 07-05-2017, 05:15 PM   #3355
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Did that fix it?
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Old 07-05-2017, 05:16 PM   #3356
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Old 07-05-2017, 05:20 PM   #3357
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I'll be at the game...
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Old 07-05-2017, 05:26 PM   #3358
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Did that fix it?
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Old 07-05-2017, 05:33 PM   #3359
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Kershaw vs Duffy should be a classic.
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Old 07-05-2017, 05:36 PM   #3360
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Kershaw vs Duffy should be a classic.
Bring it. Kershaw is 3rd in BB/9.

We pwn strike throwers.
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