Royals *** Official Royals Repository, Part 4 *** - Page 205

duncan_idaho · 10:46 PM

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
4. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
5. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
6. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
7. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

8. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

tk13 · 09-16-2015, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiTown

You aren't already sweating the 9th inning when Holland is pitching?

Eh, not as comfortable as the last three years, no way. But I don't feel like we just put Aaron Crow in the game either. We are incredibly spoiled by the last two years. Fans were nervous about him last year and he had a 1.40 ERA.

He has a 2.41 ERA in save situations. He has a 7.71 ERA in non save situations.

He has a 1.38 ERA on three days or less of rest. He has a 10.45 ERA on 4 or more days of rest.

I don't know the answer. It only takes one bad outing to say I told you so. But as we've seen with Cueto, messing with what's worked for two years can backfire too. I totally get it. But I don't think moving Holland to the 7th inning is a guaranteed success either. Every time people get down on him he answers the bell. I think he responds well to pressure.

**ChiTown** · 09-16-2015, 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tk13

Eh, not as comfortable as the last three years, no way. But I don't feel like we just put Aaron Crow in the game either. We are incredibly spoiled by the last two years. Fans were nervous about him last year and he had a 1.40 ERA.

He has a 2.41 ERA in save situations. He has a 7.71 ERA in non save situations.

He has a 1.38 ERA on three days or less of rest. He has a 10.45 ERA on 4 or more days of rest.

I don't know the answer. It only takes one bad outing to say I told you so. But as we've seen with Cueto, messing with what's worked for two years can backfire too. I totally get it. But I don't think moving Holland to the 7th inning is a guaranteed success either. Every time people get down on him he answers the bell. I think he responds well to pressure.

Truth

tk13 · 09-16-2015, 01:49 PM

Yeah. I wonder if the Royals are basically just resting him as much as possible and plan to just air it out in the playoffs and throw him out there every night until his arm falls off. Statistically he clearly pitches so much better on less rest. More K's, no homers, etc. But you don't want to burn him up during the regular season either. I wouldn't want to be the one making the decision, because if you lose with your closer throwing 87 you're an idiot. If you lose because you tinkered with your bullpen and lineups too much you're an idiot.

Hootie · 09-16-2015, 02:09 PM

I've said all year long the Royals best two relievers, this year, are Madson and Davis

BigCatDaddy · 09-16-2015, 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

I've said all year long the Royals best two relievers, this year, are Madson and Davis

Still want to flip Madson for that prospect?

Shawny2X4 · 09-16-2015, 02:44 PM

Was looking over the NW Arkansas roster and noticed that Zimmer is listed as "temporarily inactive." The team is playing in the Texas League Playoffs. I am not sure why he isn't starting for them.

Also, they are going against Sean Manaea tonight. He is 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA since being traded to the A's organization.

Hootie · 09-16-2015, 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Still want to flip Madson for that prospect?

I think I may have suggested that in ... April? Maybe. And for a prospect? No one trades prospects for relievers. Hell, at this point, I'd have to have that post linked to me because I think you're Prison Bitch'ing the context to the nth degree.

Still want to argue with me that Infante won't be benched? That Ned won't bat Alex leadoff?

Hootie · 09-16-2015, 03:07 PM

I'm re-watching the Holland inning ... and ... 89 isn't going to cut it. It's a recipe for disaster.

siberian khatru · 09-16-2015, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shawny2X4

Was looking over the NW Arkansas roster and noticed that Zimmer is listed as "temporarily inactive." The team is playing in the Texas League Playoffs. I am not sure why he isn't starting for them.

They shut him down healthy. I think Andy tweeted a couple of days ago that they considered his season a success.

Hootie · 09-16-2015, 03:12 PM

on top of that, the guys Holland got out yesterday were Aviles on a shit bunt and two guys I've never heard of in my life ...

he isn't getting people out with 89 MPH

duncan_idaho · 09-16-2015, 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shawny2X4

Was looking over the NW Arkansas roster and noticed that Zimmer is listed as "temporarily inactive." The team is playing in the Texas League Playoffs. I am not sure why he isn't starting for them.

Also, they are going against Sean Manaea tonight. He is 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA since being traded to the A's organization.

Zimmer only threw about 20 innings last year, so getting him to 65 this year (plus about 20 in extended spring training) is actually pretty in line with the way a lot of teams treat young pitchers.

He was in a dead arm period, and it seems they decided to shut him down rather than let him work through that (Dead arm at 40-60 innings into your season/as a starter is pretty normal).

Prison Bitch · 09-16-2015, 05:11 PM

"The American League Is Rolling Again":

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-a...rolling-again/

**petegz28** · 09-16-2015, 07:51 PM

I think all of Ned's tinkering is backfiring....perhaps ****ing with what got you 30 games over .500 wasn't the best idea?

mr. tegu · 09-16-2015, 09:24 PM

I don't know about anyone else but my expectations for the postseason are definitely not as nearly as lofty as they once were.

tk13 · 09-16-2015, 09:40 PM

Ned and DM have made all the right moves, certainly all the moves the fans wanted except maybe demoting Holland. Sometimes getting better on paper doesn't work, as we've seen over the years. They've played the numbers... except that some of these moves did not make us a better defensive team, and we were built on run prevention and our bullpen. Neither is as good as last year. We are probably better offensively, but we went to the World Series last year with a terrible offense. It doesn't always translate to October.

07-14-2015, 11:05 PM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1450308	* Official Royals Repository, Part 4 * In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions. Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins One month in: Looking strong All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins. Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro! All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one. Division Preview Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them. Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out. And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture. The Royals will be a division winner IF ... 1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work 2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts 3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland 4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy 5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back. Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015: Spoiler! 1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1 2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016. 3. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level. 4. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season. 5. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup. 6. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly. 7. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up. Spoiler! 8. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags. 9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing. 10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with. 11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced. 12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch. 13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them. 14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching. 15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list. 16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far. 17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble. Last edited by duncan_idaho; 10-06-2015 at 10:46 PM..
Posts: 21,152

09-16-2015, 01:49 PM	#3063
tk13 ... Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $1692500	Yeah. I wonder if the Royals are basically just resting him as much as possible and plan to just air it out in the playoffs and throw him out there every night until his arm falls off. Statistically he clearly pitches so much better on less rest. More K's, no homers, etc. But you don't want to burn him up during the regular season either. I wouldn't want to be the one making the decision, because if you lose with your closer throwing 87 you're an idiot. If you lose because you tinkered with your bullpen and lineups too much you're an idiot.
Posts: 54,998

09-16-2015, 02:09 PM	#3064
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	I've said all year long the Royals best two relievers, this year, are Madson and Davis
Posts: 56,356

09-16-2015, 02:44 PM	#3066
Shawny2X4 Starter Join Date: Aug 2015 Casino cash: $9910752	Was looking over the NW Arkansas roster and noticed that Zimmer is listed as "temporarily inactive." The team is playing in the Texas League Playoffs. I am not sure why he isn't starting for them. Also, they are going against Sean Manaea tonight. He is 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA since being traded to the A's organization.
Posts: 209

09-16-2015, 03:07 PM	#3068
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	I'm re-watching the Holland inning ... and ... 89 isn't going to cut it. It's a recipe for disaster.
Posts: 56,356

09-16-2015, 03:12 PM	#3070
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	on top of that, the guys Holland got out yesterday were Aviles on a shit bunt and two guys I've never heard of in my life ... he isn't getting people out with 89 MPH
Posts: 56,356

09-16-2015, 05:11 PM	#3072
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	"The American League Is Rolling Again": http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-a...rolling-again/
Posts: 87,025

09-16-2015, 07:51 PM	#3073
petegz28 Supporter Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Olathe, Ks Casino cash: $2484127	I think all of Ned's tinkering is backfiring....perhaps ****ing with what got you 30 games over .500 wasn't the best idea?
Posts: 128,262

09-16-2015, 09:24 PM	#3074
mr. tegu Forever Royal Join Date: Mar 2012 Casino cash: $1661300	I don't know about anyone else but my expectations for the postseason are definitely not as nearly as lofty as they once were.
Posts: 24,155

09-16-2015, 09:40 PM	#3075
tk13 ... Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $1692500	Ned and DM have made all the right moves, certainly all the moves the fans wanted except maybe demoting Holland. Sometimes getting better on paper doesn't work, as we've seen over the years. They've played the numbers... except that some of these moves did not make us a better defensive team, and we were built on run prevention and our bullpen. Neither is as good as last year. We are probably better offensively, but we went to the World Series last year with a terrible offense. It doesn't always translate to October.
Posts: 54,998