*** Official Royals Repository, Part 4 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
4. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
5. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
6. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
7. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

8. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

[ChiTown]

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

I don't think it makes a lot of sense for fans to be diagnosing mental or physical ailments. It is kind of ridiculous to think we know more or know better than the team staff does.

Holland may not be dominant like before, but there really isn't some great alternative. I'm good with Davis closing, but Holland would still likely pitch the 8th. I still trust him more than most of the other bullpen guys.
Cueto probably has 4 starts left. He can't do THAT much damage at this point. Assuming that he's not actually injured, he isn't going to figure this out by not pitching. May as well run him out there and see if he can get it back.

If you are able to find it, go back and listen to Ned's post-game interview when they discuss Holland.

[duncan_idaho]

Holland: I do believe he's hurt. They've been trying to protect him/nurse him through the injury with cleaner mechanics, but it has resulted in lost velocity. Thankfully, his slider is still sharp, which allows him to be effective, but if he's not sitting 92-93, at least, you can't go into postseason games with him closing.

Cueto: I don't believe he's hurt. His velocity is fine/in normal ranges. I think this is a case of a guy who succeeds with finesse/command struggling with those factors... and also experiencing some bad luck on balls out of the zone.

Morales: The prospect of him playing RF for any period of time is kind of terrifying on the outset, but we'll see how it goes. Keeping his bat in the lineup in NL parks would be pretty nice.

[ChiTown]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Holland: I do believe he's hurt. They've been trying to protect him/nurse him through the injury with cleaner mechanics, but it has resulted in lost velocity. Thankfully, his slider is still sharp, which allows him to be effective, but if he's not sitting 92-93, at least, you can't go into postseason games with him closing.

Cueto: I don't believe he's hurt. His velocity is fine/in normal ranges. I think this is a case of a guy who succeeds with finesse/command struggling with those factors... and also experiencing some bad luck on balls out of the zone.

Morales: The prospect of him playing RF for any period of time is kind of terrifying on the outset, but we'll see how it goes. Keeping his bat in the lineup in NL parks would be pretty nice.

Holland - agreed. If he's not touching 94 or 95 on his FB, and all he has is his slider, he'd be more effective in situational pitching, but not as a closer.

Cueto - The rumors were flying around that he may have been injured earlier in the Summer, and I wonder if he isn't masking something, that is not allowing him to control his location better. Whatever it is, it's consistently bad, and amazingly unfortunate for the R's

Morales: I'm all in if it means less Rios. Got to have our RBI machine in the lineup if we are fortunate enough to make the WS again

[Hootie]

If Holland is sitting at 89 he shouldn't even be on the postseason roster ... He looks like Joe Borowski out there

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by ChiTown

If you are able to find it, go back and listen to Ned's post-game interview when they discuss Holland.

Whatever he said, I don't think they run someone out there if they think he's too hurt to execute. It's one thing for a fan to 2nd guess the batting order or a PH, but I don't think there's any reason to believe we know better than the staff about someone's physical/mental condition. If anything, Ned's probably too overcautious. He always says that when everyone says a player is healthy, that's when he gives it one more day.

[ChiTown]

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

Whatever he said, I don't think they run someone out there if they think he's too hurt to execute. It's one thing for a fan to 2nd guess the batting order or a PH, but I don't think there's any reason to believe we know better than the staff about someone's physical/mental condition. If anything, Ned's probably too overcautious. He always says that when everyone says a player is healthy, that's when he gives it one more day.

Well, not that you don't already know this, but the good news is that the fans don't make these decisions. However, as you are also well aware, you are free to speculate and state your opinion as often as you'd like.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

If Holland is sitting at 89 he shouldn't even be on the postseason roster ... He looks like Joe Borowski out there

He had a fastball register at 87 last night. That's not good.

[tk13]

Borowski never had Holland's slider. He's shown how great that pitch is this year, he's basically living off it.

I don't know what to think about it. He's getting the job done, and he obviously thrives on the pressure. He's never been great in non save situations. I wonder if you take him out of the closer spot will he just unravel. I don't know. It will certainly make it more of an adventure just to get to Davis. Games still feel like they're over if we get to the 8th. We switch it up and we'll be sweating games out.
Posted via Mobile Device

[ChiTown]

Originally Posted by tk13

Borowski never had Holland's slider. He's shown how great that pitch is this year, he's basically living off it.

I don't know what to think about it. He's getting the job done, and he obviously thrives on the pressure. He's never been great in non save situations. I wonder if you take him out of the closer spot will he just unravel. I don't know. It will certainly make it more of an adventure just to get to Davis. Games still feel like they're over if we get to the 8th. We switch it up and we'll be sweating games out.
Posted via Mobile Device

You aren't already sweating the 9th inning when Holland is pitching?

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

If Holland is sitting at 89 he shouldn't even be on the postseason roster ... He looks like Joe Borowski out there

The only person pitching himself off the postseason roster right now is Cueto.

[siberian khatru]

Greg Holland's velocity trend since May 1 is kind of terrifying.. pic.twitter.com/AlEED8PodU

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) September 13, 2015

[CaliforniaChief]

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

Greg Holland's velocity trend since May 1 is kind of terrifying.. pic.twitter.com/AlEED8PodU

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) September 13, 2015

This is highly problematic.

I would feel better if Hochevar and Herrera were dominating right now, but they aren't.

Davis is clearly the man, and there's a pretty sharp drop-off after that.

[ChiTown]

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief

This is highly problematic.

I would feel better if Hochevar and Herrera were dominating right now, but they aren't.

Davis is clearly the man, and there's a pretty sharp drop-off after that.

I still like Ryan Madson a ton - especially his 0.98 WHIP and his 4.42 K/BB ratio

[siberian khatru]

What's very alarming on that graph is that after Holland rallied to reach 96 on Aug. 16 his velocity has nosedived. That suggests the effort to regain his old fastball may have done some damage and proved counterproductive.

I wondered awhile back if they had him intentionally dial it back to improve his control. But in that Aug. 16 game when he amped up, he three a 9-pitch, 9-strike clean inning.

After complaining about him dropping to 93-94 for most of the year, I'm sure we'd all love to have that instead of the current 89-91.

[ChiTown]

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

What's very alarming on that graph is that after Holland rallied to reach 96 on Aug. 16 his velocity has nosedived. That suggests the effort to regain his old fastball may have done some damage and proved counterproductive.

I wondered awhile back if they had him intentionally dial it back to improve his control. But in that Aug. 16 game when he amped up, he three a 9-pitch, 9-strike clean inning.

After complaining about him dropping to 93-94 for most of the year, I'm sure we'd all love to have that instead of the current 89-91.

For a closer, what's alarming to me is

3.49 ERA (2 pts higher than what he carried last year)
1.40 WHIP (.5 higher than last year)
2.00 K/BB Ratio (more than half of what it was in '14 and nearly a 1/3 of what it was in '13)