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Old 06-03-2017, 05:31 PM  
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A Saturday analysis of AFC West Drafting in the Dorsey era.
Using data from our friends at profootballreference, I downloaded the 2013-2016 drafts of the four AFC West teams. (I left 2017 out since the only thing we know about those players at this point is that Mahomes is Favre Reincarnated and Bolles is Forrest Gump.)

I then sorted them by where the players were selected in the draft, and compared their "Career Average Value" as calculated by profootballreference.

I made one adjustment to the numbers. I took the 2016 players and multiplied their AV by 4, the 2015 players by 2, and the 2014 players by 1.3 so that all players are essentially being measured on a four-year basis. This may understate and/or destabilize the contributions of younger players who have had less time to capture a starting role.

I'll cover each round in a post, and I'll split the first round into two parts since there's presumably a bigger talent spread there. In each round I'll list the team, player, pick#, Adjusted CarAV, and position.

So let's start with the top half of Round 1. Here are the players who were selected along with their Adjusted Career AV.

Code:
Team	Player	Pick	Adjusted CarAV	Pos
KC	Eric Fisher	1	27	T
SD	Joey Bosa	3	24	DE
Oak	Amari Cooper	4	38	WR
Oak	Khalil Mack	5	48	LB
SD	D.J. Fluker	11	29	T
Oak	D.J. Hayden	12	10	DB
Oak	Karl Joseph	14	16	S
SD	Melvin Gordon	15	30	RB
Average points per pick:

Oakland 28
San Diego, er, Los Angeles 28
Kansas City 27
Denver N/A

Oakland has had a lot of picks, and have both the best and worst. Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper are the highest rated guys in this group, even though we all know that Cooper is overrated. However, Oakland also has the least productive guys with their two defensive backs.

This group is primarily an Oakland and San Diego...er, Los Angeles show. Eric Fisher is the only exception, and he's ranked 5th of the 8 as part of a big clump in the middle.

Go to Post 2 for the back half of the round, and then the first several posts work through each subsequent round.
Last edited by Rain Man; 06-03-2017 at 08:24 PM..
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Old 06-03-2017, 07:48 PM   #16
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Oh, and nice job RainMan. Thanks for providing the research and the numbers to back up our belief that Dorsey is killing it in the draft and ElFraud is......well, a fraud.
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Old 06-03-2017, 07:54 PM   #17
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Old 06-03-2017, 07:59 PM   #18
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This is why Rainman is a top 3 poster on this board.
I agree with him being a top poster here, but who are your other 2 top 3 posters?
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Old 06-03-2017, 08:02 PM   #19
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I agree with him being a top poster here, but who are your other 2 top 3 posters?
SNR and DJsLeftNut.
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Old 06-03-2017, 08:03 PM   #20
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Jesus **** Elway is awful.


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The thing I take away about Denver is that the first three rounds are killing them. Their starters are coming from the late rounds and their early rounds are abysmal.

In contrast, KC tends to find a jewel or two in every round over the four-year period.
Excellent work, Rain Man! I'm sure the debate and bullshit will continue between KC and the Dunks, but we must all applaud you for bringing solid, concrete, and indisputable evidence to the table for study and reflection.
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Old 06-03-2017, 08:08 PM   #21
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SNR and DJsLeftNut.
I can see that. Probably not my top 2, but I was just wanting to make sure that Clay wasn't o e of your choices.
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Old 06-03-2017, 08:10 PM   #22
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Old 06-03-2017, 08:14 PM   #23
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Old 06-03-2017, 08:21 PM   #24
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Great analysis, Rainman!
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Old 06-03-2017, 08:22 PM   #25
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Excellent work, Rain Man! I'm sure the debate and bullshit will continue between KC and the Dunks, but we must all applaud you for bringing solid, concrete, and indisputable evidence to the table for study and reflection.
But I like it, I love it, I want some more of it.
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Old 06-03-2017, 08:27 PM   #26
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I'm super annoyed with the poor data management here. What is the prevalent information here? What data piece is the most important and referenced each paragraph. Why is the data not sorted by the most important data piece which the entire original post centers around along with all subsequent RM posts? Why when I want to know who is the best and the worst do I have to scan, hunt, and peck all over an extremely small data set? Why am I explaining this to a statistics company owner?

Why am I so angry about this?

Being cheeky but Jesus it triggered me a bit.
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Old 06-03-2017, 08:29 PM   #27
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This data by Rainman is gospel and proof to the domination of Dorsey over Elway (without lucking into Manning)
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Old 06-03-2017, 08:33 PM   #28
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Old 06-03-2017, 08:43 PM   #29
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The draft is what Dorsey is all about, he is the key to this organization.
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Old 06-03-2017, 09:34 PM   #30
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If you add up all of these averages, you can somewhat get a feel of how well each team is drafting. The figure is the total career AV that you'd expect if each team had 7 picks, 1 in each round.

Chiefs - 94
Raiders - 86
Chargers - 67
Broncos - 58

It seems like our long-term competition is going to be the Raiders. The Chiefs and Raiders are both drafting well, while the other two teams are not.
Great job you data nerd! I really enjoyed reading those. Rep sent.
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