I question about powerball

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

If the odds are 1 in 292,000,000 to win, does that mean there are 292,000,000 different number combinations ? If so, I'm thinking about getting a loan. Just a short term loan.

Thoughts ?

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Hog Farmer

If the odds are 1 in 292,000,000 to win, does that mean there are 292,000,000 different number combinations ? If so, I'm thinking about getting a loan. Just a short term loan.

Thoughts ?

Yes, those are the odds. No, don't get the loan.

It's combinatorics. Not sure if you're familiar with factorials, but lets say you have 5 factorial (5!). 5! = 5*4*3*2*1 = 120.

You have a formula for (n,k) where you choose k balls from n balls. In Powerball, the first situation is to choose 5 balls from 69.

The formula is (n,k) = n!/(k!*(n-k)!)

So, you have (69,5) = 69!/5!*(69-5)! = 69!/5!*64!

Since 69! = 69*68*67*66*65*64!, you can cancel the 64! to get
69*68*67*66*65/5! = 11,238,513.

Your odds of getting all 5 numbers without the Powerball, which I believe wins you $1 million, is 1 in 11,238,513.

Now you have to factor in the Powerball.

You choose 1 from 26, or (26,1) which is simply 26 unique possibilities.

The total ways to get all 6 numbers (5 white and 1 powerball) is now simply multiplication.

11,238,513*26 = 292,201,338

So you have the odds stated on the back of your ticket.

Powerball tickets are $2 so it would cost you $584,402,676 to buy 1 of every possible number combination.

The current Cash-In value is $930 million and you have taxes to pay on those winnings. You'd have to pay 39.6% in federal tax alone ($368 million). If you live in Missouri, you'll pay about another $37 million in state taxes. That means you'll have about $525 million left from your winnings. You wouldn't even pay off what it cost you in tickets.

Also, there is the chance that there are multiple winners, which would move your debt from about $60 million into the hundreds of millions.

[Lex Luthor]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Yes, those are the odds. No, don't get the loan.

It's combinatorics. Not sure if you're familiar with factorials, but lets say you have 5 factorial (5!). 5! = 5*4*3*2*1 = 120.

You have a formula for (n,k) where you choose k balls from n balls. In Powerball, the first situation is to choose 5 balls from 69.

The formula is (n,k) = n!/(k!*(n-k)!)

So, you have (69,5) = 69!/5!*(69-5)! = 69!/5!*64!

Since 69! = 69*68*67*66*65*64!, you can cancel the 64! to get
69*68*67*66*65/5! = 11,238,513.

Your odds of getting all 5 numbers without the Powerball, which I believe wins you $1 million, is 1 in 11,238,513.

Now you have to factor in the Powerball.

You choose 1 from 26, or (26,1) which is simply 26 unique possibilities.

The total ways to get all 6 numbers (5 white and 1 powerball) is now simply multiplication.

11,238,513*26 = 292,201,338

So you have the odds stated on the back of your ticket.

Powerball tickets are $2 so it would cost you $584,402,676 to buy 1 of every possible number combination.

The current Cash-In value is $930 million and you have taxes to pay on those winnings. You'd have to pay 39.6% in federal tax alone ($368 million). If you live in Missouri, you'll pay about another $37 million in state taxes. That means you'll have about $525 million left from your winnings. You wouldn't even pay off what it cost you in tickets.

Also, there is the chance that there are multiple winners, which would move your debt from about $60 million into the hundreds of millions.

Don't listen to him, Hogfarmer. He's lying because he doesn't want you to get rich. Go for it!

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by Lex Luthor

Don't listen to him, Hogfarmer. He's lying because he doesn't want you to get rich. Go for it!

I wrecked all that because I'm taking the 30 annual payments , plus in Texas no state Taxes.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Anyway ,I've already emailed my banker with a request for the $584 million. Told her I needed it well in advance of 10:00 tonight.

[mdchiefsfan]

Originally Posted by Guru

you need to take into account all the duplicate tickets created. Something that truly can't be planned for.

Duplicate tickets wouldn't affect the odds of winning, just the odds of how many can win. There are only so many combinations that can occur. That would be the 1 in x chance to win.

[jspchief]

Originally Posted by Hog Farmer

Anyway ,I've already emailed my banker with a request for the $584 million. Told her I needed it well in advance of 10:00 tonight.

Might as well get the power play multiplier since you're guaranteed to get winning tickets.

An Australian lotto had a group of people do this once. Turns out there wasn't enough time to print off all the tickets, but they still won the jackpot and a lot of smaller prizes. Kind of a cool story.

[Predarat]

Originally Posted by InChiefsHell

I seem to recall in the early 90's when the jackpot got up to like 350 million, there was some large conglomerate that bought up all the possible combinations (at that time the odds were like 1 in 180 million) and the jackpot wound up being split by like 7 tickets. So those guys lost their asses. Which was rather poetic.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Hog Farmer

I wrecked all that because I'm taking the 30 annual payments

Oh, so you really like taking it in the ass rough?

I actually made an error on the Missouri tax. Apparently its about $55.8 million on the lump.

If you took out a 30 year loan on the $584.4 million, at say 6% APR, then your annual payments would total about $42 million.

Assuming $50 million payout annually ($1.5 billion over 30 years), you'd take home about $27.2 million per year. So, you'd lose about $14.8 million per year over 30 years, or $445.4 million over the life of the loan.

You'd be rolling in it... debt that is.

[mikeyis4dcats.]

an article I read yesterday said it would take 1 person 9 years to purchase all the combinations.

[Fairplay]

On the news they just said that 70 percent of powerball winners go broke within 5 years because they mishandled their money.

Couldn't imagine being so bad where a person can blow through this kind of money though. I'd hirer Rain Man to handle my money, he'd get paid good I can assure you.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Fairplay

On the news they just said that 70 percent of powerball winners go broke within 5 years because they mishandled their money.

Couldn't imagine being so bad where a person can blow through this kind of money though. I'd hirer Rain Man to handle my money, he'd get paid good I can assure you.

I'd blow the entire billion on hookers and blow. I'd be broke by July.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Li'l Smokey

I'd blow the entire billion on hookers and blow. I'd be broke by July.

Why do I believe you?

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by mdchiefsfan

Duplicate tickets wouldn't affect the odds of winning, just the odds of how many can win. There are only so many combinations that can occur. That would be the 1 in x chance to win.

It does... if you were drawing numbers between 1 and 10 and drew ten 5s, you would have a 10% chance of winning, as opposed to drawing every number and having a 100% chance of winning.

Probably not all that significant with almost 300 million combinations though... 10 million duplicates would still get you almost 97% of all combinations. The bigger problem is that if it's true 75% of all combinations were played Saturday, I'd think it would be close to 100% if not over, so you're nearly guaranteed to share it with at least one other person.

[Couch-Potato]

bahahahaha!

[Couch-Potato]

can't win unless you play