How I see the offseason (with cap implications)

[kccrow]

Chiefs Free Agents - Must Re-Sign

OLB Justin Houston - Give Houston a deal around $14 million per to be the highest paid OLB in the NFL
OC Rodney Hudson - Give Hudson a deal around $3.5 million per, putting him in the top 10 for Centers in the NFL.
DE Allen Bailey - Give Bailey a deal around $1.5 million per putting him around 20th in terms of starting 3-4 defensive ends in the NFL.
DE Kevin Vickerson - Give Vickerson a deal around $1.5 million per, putting him around 20th in terms of starting 3-4 defensive ends in the NFL.
CB Chris Owens - Give Owens a deal at $870,000, putting him at the vet minimum for 7th year players in the NFL.
CB Ron Parker - Give Parker a deal at around $1.50 million per, putting him at the top of the tier 3 CBs in the NFL (65th) and in the middle of the tier 2 safeties (48th) or so.
ILB Josh Mauga - Give Mauga a deal around $940,000, putting him at the bottom of starting NFL linebackers (around 48th) but above vet min (870,000 for him).
LS Thomas Gafford - Sign Gafford at the vet minimum of $870,000 for his tenure.
RT Ryan Harris - Harris has earned a re-signing so far, give him a deal worth $1.2 per or so, putting him at the bottom of starting RTs in the NFL.
S Kelcie McCray - Sign McCray at vet minimum of $660,000
OLB Josh Martin - Sign Martin at vet minimum of $660,000
TE Demetrius Harris - Sign Harris at vet minimum of $660,000

Total of these signings = $27,860,000
Cap Hits = $158,928,172 (18,928,172 over)

Chiefs Restructuring

OLB Tamba Hali - Offer Hali to take his 2015 salary, roster bonus, and workout bonuses, totaling $9 million and make them a signing bonus on a 3 year extension (2015-16-17). Give Hali the vet minimum salary of 970,000 in 2015. His prorated old signing bonus money of just over 2.9 million will have to be added to his new signing bonus and prorated over the 3 years, giving him a new bonus hit of $3,988,235 per and a cap hit of $4,958,235 in 2015, which remains on par with the top 15 3-4 OLBs in the NFL while saving the Chiefs $6.5 million against the cap.

Cap Hits = $152,421,701 (12,421,701 over)

Chiefs Cuts

QB Chase Daniel - Cap Savings of $3.8 million
RB Cyrus Gray - Cap Savings of $668,500
WR A.J. Jenkins - Cap Savings of $1,337,390
WR Donnie Avery - Cap Savings of $3,550,000
DE Mike DeVito - Cap Savings of $4,000,000 (give injury settlement)
TE Sean McGrath - Cap Savings of $585,000 (currently showing against cap but retirement voids base)
TE Anthony Fasano - Cap Savings of $1,975,000
ILB Derrick Johnson - Cap Savings of $5,250,000 (give injury settlement)

Total Savings = $21,165,890 (Dead Money Created = $5,176,918)
Cap Hits = $131,255,811 ($8,744,189 under = enough to sign draft class)

Cap Rollover from 2014 = $5,417,020
FB Anthony Sherman was extended, approximately $2,333,333 in 2015 reduces effective cap rollover to $3,083,687. Could be used on a couple low-level free agents.


Let Walk...

OG Mike McGlynn
OG Jeff Linkenbach
S Kurt Coleman
WR Junior Hemmingway
WR Frankie Hammond
S Daniel Sorenson
LB Dezman Moses
RB Joe McKnight

Obviously cap accuracy could be slightly off, but it should be very close. There will be turnover of some low-level contracts I'm sure, and some signings of new ones.

How I'd see the roster going into FA/Draft

QB Alex Smith
QB Aaron Murray
QB Tyler Bray

RB Jamaal Charles
RB Knile Davis
RB De'Anthony Thomas

FB Anthony Sherman

WR Dwayne Bowe
WR Albert Wilson

TE Travis Kelce
TE Demetrius Harris

OT Eric Fisher
OT Ryan Harris
OT Donald Stephenson

OG Jeff Allen
OG Zach Fulton
OG Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff

OC Rodney Hudson
OC Eric Kush

DE Allen Bailey
DE Jaye Howard
DE Kevin Vickerson
DE Mike Catapano
DE Vance Walker

NT Dontari Poe

OLB Dee Ford
OLB Frank Zombo
OLB Josh Martin
OLB Justin Houston
OLB Tamba Hali

ILB James Michael Johnson
ILB Joe Mays
ILB Josh Mauga

CB Chris Owens
CB Jamell Fleming
CB Marcus Cooper
CB Phillip Gaines
CB Ron Parker
CB Sean Smith

S Eric Berry
S Husain Abdullah
S Kelcie McCray
S Sanders Commings

K Cairo Santos
P Dustin Colquitt
LS Thomas Gafford

And the losses, summarized...

QB Chase Daniel

RB Cyrus Gray
RB Joe McKnight

WR A.J. Jenkins
WR Donnie Avery
WR Junior Hemingway
WR Frankie Hammond

TE Anthony Fasano

OG Mike McGlynn
OG Jeff Linkenbach

DE Mike DeVito

ILB Derrick Johnson

OLB Dezman Moses

S Kurt Coleman
S Daniel Sorensen


What this leaves KC...

46 active players. They need only 7 of their 11 draft picks to make the active roster.

What they appear to need...

WR - 3
TE - 1
OG - 1
OT - 1
ILB - 1

Everything else is shuffling...

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by mszymko

Would really like to see us keep both Houston and Hali. Lately I'm wondering if we don't trade Berry, maybe to move up in the draft? Cecil Shorts? Meh, ok. But if we go that route I'd like to see us get a Star receiver in the first round of the draft. Maybe that means we pkg picks and possibly Berry to climb up into the top of the draft.

Bowe, Stud rookie WR, Cecil Shorts... theoretically looks like a respectable NFL WR Core.



Anyways... thank you for your analysis, good read!

First you guys are welcome, I thought something new would be fun. I like to debate things like this too.

I'm looking at the Chiefs going WR in round 1 and add 1 or two more.

My current mock is:
1. WR DeVante Parker - Louisville (6'3" 211)
2. CB Alex Carter - Stanford (6'0" 200)
3. LB Jake Ryan - Michigan (6'3" 235)
3. OT Sean Hickey - Syracuse (6'5" 300)
4. OG Jarvis Harrison - Texas A&M (6'3" 325)
5. FS Adrian Amos - Penn State (6'0" 209)
5. WR Rannell Hall - Central Florida (6'1" 200)
5. DE Anthony Chickillo - Miami (6'4" 277)
6. WR Tre McBride - William & Mary (6'1" 205)
7. RB Travon Van - Montana (5'10" 195)
7. TE Nick Boyle - Delaware (6'5" 270)

Which makes me think the following:

QB	Alex Smith
QB	Aaron Murray
QB	Tyler Bray
RB	Jamaal Charles
RB	Knile Davis
RB	De’Anthony Thomas
RB	Travon Van
FB	Anthony Sherman
WR	Dwayne Bowe
WR	DeVante Parker
WR	Cecil Shorts
WR	Albert Wilson
WR	Rannell Hall
WR	Tre McBride
TE	Demetrius Harris
TE	Travis Kelce
TE	Nick Boyle
OT	Donald Stephenson
OT	Eric Fisher
OT	Ryan Harris
OT	Sean Hickey
OG	Jeff Allen
OG	Laurent Duvernay-Tardif
OG	Zach Fulton
OG	Jarvis Harrison
OC	Eric Kush
OC	Rodney Hudson

DE	Allen Bailey
DE	Jaye Howard
DE	Kevin Vickerson
DE	Mike Catapano
DE	Vance Walker
DE	Anthony Chickillo
NT	Dontari Poe
OLB	Dee Ford
OLB	Frank Zombo
OLB	Josh Martin
OLB	Justin Houston
OLB	Tamba Hali
ILB	James Michael Johnson
ILB	Joe Mays
ILB	Josh Mauga
ILB	Jake Ryan
CB	Christopher Owens
CB	Jamell Fleming
CB	Marcus Cooper
CB	Phillip Gaines
CB	Sean Smith
CB	Alex Carter
S	Eric Berry
S	Husain Abdullah
S	Kelcie McCray
S	Sanders Commings
S	Adrian Amos
S	Ron Parker
K	Cairo Santos
P	Dustin Colquitt
LS	Thomas Gafford

Strikethroughs = Cuts

[Sandy Vagina]

It was just one game last week where I observed UM's LB Ryan closely... so it's probably not fair to shut him down.. but I was really unimpressed. He seems slow and lacking in acceleration. Someone to look for late in the draft, would be my early thought.

Like the effort and thought that you put into the OP.

[OldSchool]

Crow, it'll be a miracle if Parker makes it out of the top 15 much less into the mid 20s. That kid has top 10 ability right now and would probably be in top 5 consideration if he had been healthy all year. His monster game vs FSU does not help our chances at all.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by OldSchool

Crow, it'll be a miracle if Parker makes it out of the top 15 much less into the mid 20s. That kid has top 10 ability right now and would probably be in top 5 consideration if he had been healthy all year. His monster game vs FSU does not help our chances at all.

Could be. A couple of really good receivers at the top. One will fall past 10 I'm sure, and if you have 11 draft picks and a team that is close to doing some damage, then I see no reason not to move up and get a guy like Parker. You have Cooper, White, Strong, Funchess, maybe Green-Beckham that could all go early. Even though I feel Green-Beckham will drop, there is a chance he goes top 20. Even Randy Moss, for all his troubles early in life, got drafted at #21. Now if the Chiefs make the playoffs and manage to go deep into them, then I might start looking at other options. If any one of Cooper, White, Strong, or Parker drop then I'm all over that. I'd move up a bit for any one of them, especially Cooper and Parker. I like Diggs late round 1.

[Easy 6]

Originally Posted by kccrow

1. Chase Daniel is scheduled to make 4.8 million next year as a backup. Read that again. He's gone, the Chiefs need that cap space. Never understood the love affair people have with an overpaid, mediocre, backup QB that likely wont' see the field and certainly is unlikely to save the Chiefs if Alex goes down. What I've seen of Murray, I'm okay with him as the #2 heading into his 2nd year.

2. Cutting Johnson is a move that is made in lieu of cutting either Eric Berry, Tamba Hali, Sean Smith, Jamaal Charles, or Dwayne Bowe OR letting Justin Houston walk. The Chiefs need the cap space if they are intent on re-signing Houston and they have proved to be okay without Johnson and he's one of the oldest on that list. Add in the fact that players are never 100% back to usual until two years removed from an Achilles, and it makes the choice even easier.

3. Hali is looking straight down the pipe of restructure or get cut. If he chooses to get cut, he gets whatever he can on the open market. It isn't likely other teams still see Hali in the top 15 OLBs in the NFL, so he'll be hard pressed to get a contract anywhere near 5 million per season elsewhere. In this case, he still makes as much money as he otherwise would in 2015, only difference is he gets it as a signing bonus. If you think he won't accept that, I'd say you're very, very wrong. Hali isn't what he used to be, but Dee Ford looks light years from being ready, which is the only reason I chose restructure instead of cut.

4. I very seriously thought about trading or cutting Eric Berry, but I'm not certain that is the best idea. The Chiefs did get by without him, but Abdullah isn't getting younger. Berry is an asset, and the going rate for top safeties like Berry is right at what he's set to make in 2015. If anything, its his salary THIS season that is far beyond what he deserves. I'm not opposed to the options of trade/cut when it comes to Berry, but I don't think its the smartest move.

5. Joe McKnight... one performance does not make a player. If he can be had at the vet minimum, then I'm not opposed to bringing him back in. I'm more inclined to see if West can make the active roster next year and bring in some low dollar competition.

6. I'm not worried about Zombo. As far as Martin goes, he's shown some flashes. I do agree that the Chiefs could use more competition, but that doesn't mean I'm going to throw Martin away for one good game from a journeyman running back that is a dime a dozen.

I'm 100% down with all of this, you've obviously put a ton of thought into it and it all makes perfect sense to me.

You made hard choices while still providing avenues that might be able to keep guys like Berry and Hali... we sure cant keep everyone, nor would we want to... but you have come up with a nice formula to keep what matters most.

[RunKC]

Couple things I don't agree with.

-Catapano will be back. He was quietly developing into a nice rotational player. I expect him to be rocked up again like he was before he got Ebola.
-why are we cutting Joe McKnight? His base is 645k and he's a proven weapon (see Miami game). I thought about him this weekend when JC hurt his shoulder. He's a very good option at RB behind Knile Davis and he's cheap. Keep him.
-Chris Owens sucks. I don't want him back. Sure he's good at blitzing, but his coverage skills aren't great at all. I don't want anymore 5'9" midgets in this damn secondary and I don't think Dorsey will either moving forward.

Last thing. I LOVE Alex Carter. Sadly he won't be there round 2. This is a first rd player but we should be able to draft him. I think he'll be there.

[O.city]

Owens is pretty.good in the slot though, this last week hopefully being an anomaly.

I dunno why Catapano is anything other than fodder at this point.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by O.city

Owens is pretty.good in the slot though, this last week hopefully being an anomaly.

I dunno why Catapano is anything other than fodder at this point.

Bc he made a decent impact as a rookie. People said this shit about Kelce last year and look where he's at now?

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Bc he made a decent impact as a rookie. People said this shit about Kelce last year and look where he's at now?

So did Cooper. Where is he now?

Kelce was considered amongst the best of the tight ends available in the 2013 draft. Pete Prisco of CBS Sports said he was the best TE last year and in the 2014 draft. But because of character concerns, he, like Justin Houston, dropped two rounds.

Catapano is a nice developmental 7th round acquisition but there are no guarantees moving forward that he'll be a solid, rotational player the Chiefs can depend on for the next few years.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by O.city

Owens is pretty.good in the slot though, this last week hopefully being an anomaly.

I dunno why Catapano is anything other than fodder at this point.

Meh, Owens wouldn't see the field if Fleming wasn't injured.

I still can't figure out why Cooper has seen little to no action this season. I know his play fell off late last season but there has to be more to his situation.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

So did Cooper. Where is he now?

Kelce was considered amongst the best of the tight ends available in the 2013 draft. Pete Prisco of CBS Sports said he was the best TE last year and in the 2014 draft. But because of character concerns, he, like Justin Houston, dropped two rounds.

Catapano is a nice developmental 7th round acquisition but there are no guarantees moving forward that he'll be a solid, rotational player the Chiefs can depend on for the next few years.

Yes, but you can't just give up on these guys after on year. Cooper is having a sophomore slump, but can get better like before.
And I think Cat will be back to compete. And if so I think he makes the team.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Yes, but you can't just give up on these guys after on year. Cooper is having a sophomore slump, but can get better like before.
And I think Cat will be back to compete. And if so I think he makes the team.

I'm not "giving up" on Catapano. I'm stating that it would be folly to count on a guy that had three tackles as a rookie, then missed training camp and was placed on IR the following season.

I wouldn't cut him before the end of training camp but I'd hardly rely on him as rotational player until it's proven that he can be a rotational player.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Meh, Owens wouldn't see the field if Fleming wasn't injured.

I still can't figure out why Cooper has seen little to no action this season. I know his play fell off late last season but there has to be more to his situation.

How so? Fleming was on the outside with Owens in the alot before he was injured.

It also says alot about cooper in that they moved parker to cb before bringing cooper in. Seems his confidence is shot

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by O.city

How so? Fleming was on the outside with Owens in the alot before he was injured.

It also says alot about cooper in that they moved parker to cb before bringing cooper in. Seems his confidence is shot

Owens is "supposed" to be the 4th or 5th cb and IMO, Fleming has played better than Owens.

That said, it just all depends on matchups but I'd rather see Fleming than Owens. But the defense can have multiple looks now that Berry's healthy and Parker has proven to be an outstanding cornerback and safety.

[RunKC]

Right now I would love to draft Alex Carter CB Stanford rd 1. He's got the speed, experience strength and length to be a #1 CB. Dude is 200 lbs of muscle too.

Would really solidify the CB position.