Infographics: Every NFL Offense's Production, Visualized By Position

[listopencil]

Instinctively, you know every team has strengths and weaknesses. You see it in the box scores and the advanced metrics, but when the teams line up, a shitty running back doesn't look impossibly different from Adrian Peterson. So, here's a visual aid. Every NFL offense, visualized by how each of the main offensive positions are playing.

Each circle in these charts represents how productive that position has been for a given team. We added up every qualifying player's DYAR at a given position—so you're not just looking at single players, but whole units. (LeSean McCoy is the single best running back, for example, but the Denver backs are a better unit.) Bigger circles mean more production. Red circles mean below replacement level play. So, a big red circle means that that position really sucks.

If you're unfamiliar, DYAR stands for Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement. It's a Football Outsiders metric that compiles the total value a player generates over the course of a year, instead of the slightly better known DVOA. Broadly, we're using DYAR because we wanted to show how much production each team has gotten from each of its positions, not how well each player has played in whatever snaps he was on the field for. (DVOA is a rate stat, like the NBA's PER, meaning a highly productive five plays would set you ahead of league leaders. We aren't so interested in that here.)

The "defense-adjusted" in DYAR means that these numbers reflect the quality of opponents each offense played. The thing to note is that because we're only four weeks into the season, the opponent adjustment isn't really kicking in yet. It increases 10 percent every week, and is at full confidence by week 10. It's at 40 percent this week, which isn't the strongest, but is better than no adjustment.

The minimum qualifying criteria were 10 passes for quarterbacks, five targets for receivers, and six carries for running backs. DYAR was also useful here because we could combine rushing DYAR and passing DYAR for quarterbacks, rushing DYAR and receiving DYAR for running backs, etc. For the offensive line, we used adjusted line yards, which is a rushing metric, instead of pass protection. We did this because many of the passing stats, at least this early, seemed more predicated on a quarterback's ability to avoid sacks than we'd like, but we're open to suggestions.

We didn't do defense this time around, because, frankly, we didn't have the most compelling data to work with. We're going to see about getting something together for that.

Average Squad

Here's the NFL average for accumulated DYAR of a team's receivers, tight ends, running backs, and quarterbacks through Week 4, and the average adjusted yards gained by the offensive line:





Every team rated:

http://regressing.deadspin.com/every...ion-1440409319

[listopencil]

Bear in mind that Baltimore did a major retool of their O-Line last year.

[CrazyPhuD]

So the Chiefs have a top 10 TE corps????

[loochy]

Jaguars:



Worst Possible:

[listopencil]

Originally Posted by CrazyPhuD

So the Chiefs have a top 10 TE corps????

...and were #11 overall. This thread really isn't a trolling attempt. We all know that the Broncos had a great start to the season statistically. I found it interesting that SD is #2. Look at the teams around them. The data says that this is going to be an interesting year for the AFCW. Take it for what it's worth. Still a small sample size.

[mikey23545]

FEAR THE BEARD!

[Pasta Little Brioni]

(LeSean McCoy is the single best running back, for example, but the Denver backs are a better unit

JFC

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by listopencil

Instinctively, you know every team has strengths and weaknesses. You see it in the box scores and the advanced metrics, but when the teams line up, a shitty running back doesn't look impossibly different from Adrian Peterson. So, here's a visual aid. Every NFL offense, visualized by how each of the main offensive positions are playing.

Each circle in these charts represents how productive that position has been for a given team. We added up every qualifying player's DYAR at a given position—so you're not just looking at single players, but whole units. (LeSean McCoy is the single best running back, for example, but the Denver backs are a better unit.) Bigger circles mean more production. Red circles mean below replacement level play. So, a big red circle means that that position really sucks.

If you're unfamiliar, DYAR stands for Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement. It's a Football Outsiders metric that compiles the total value a player generates over the course of a year, instead of the slightly better known DVOA. Broadly, we're using DYAR because we wanted to show how much production each team has gotten from each of its positions, not how well each player has played in whatever snaps he was on the field for. (DVOA is a rate stat, like the NBA's PER, meaning a highly productive five plays would set you ahead of league leaders. We aren't so interested in that here.)

The "defense-adjusted" in DYAR means that these numbers reflect the quality of opponents each offense played. The thing to note is that because we're only four weeks into the season, the opponent adjustment isn't really kicking in yet. It increases 10 percent every week, and is at full confidence by week 10. It's at 40 percent this week, which isn't the strongest, but is better than no adjustment.

The minimum qualifying criteria were 10 passes for quarterbacks, five targets for receivers, and six carries for running backs. DYAR was also useful here because we could combine rushing DYAR and passing DYAR for quarterbacks, rushing DYAR and receiving DYAR for running backs, etc. For the offensive line, we used adjusted line yards, which is a rushing metric, instead of pass protection. We did this because many of the passing stats, at least this early, seemed more predicated on a quarterback's ability to avoid sacks than we'd like, but we're open to suggestions.

We didn't do defense this time around, because, frankly, we didn't have the most compelling data to work with. We're going to see about getting something together for that.

Average Squad

Here's the NFL average for accumulated DYAR of a team's receivers, tight ends, running backs, and quarterbacks through Week 4, and the average adjusted yards gained by the offensive line:





Every team rated:

http://regressing.deadspin.com/every...ion-1440409319

Can someone explain to me why all these circles are roughly the same size, but have totally different values.

[listopencil]

Originally Posted by PGM

(LeSean McCoy is the single best running back, for example, but the Denver backs are a better unit

JFC

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

RUNNING BACKS 2013

Regular season totals, through Week 4

Revised as of 10/1/2013

Running backs are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this RB carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DYAR (and its cousin, YAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.


The next statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average running back in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.


The simple version: DYAR means a running back with more total value. DVOA means a running back with more value per play.
Effective Yards, listed in red, translate DVOA into a yards per attempt figure. This provides an easy comparison: in general, players with more Effective Yards than standard yards played better than standard stats would otherwise indicate, while players with fewer Effective Yards than standard yards played worse than standard stats would otherwise indicate. Effective Yards are not the best way to measure total value because they are more dependent on usage than DYAR.


The final statistic is Success Rate. This number represents the player's consistency, measured by successful running plays (the definition of success being different based on down and distance) divided by total running plays. A player with higher DVOA and a low success rate mixes long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. A player with lower DVOA and a high success rate generally gets the yards needed, but doesn't often get more. Success Rate is further explained here. It is not adjusted for opponent.

• Because it is early in the season, opponent adjustments are only at 40 percent strength; they will increase 10 percent every week through Week 10.
• These numbers do not separate the performance of a running back from the performance of his offensive line. (You'll find numbers that try to do that on this page.) Be aware that one will affect the other.
• All fumbles are considered equal, whether recovered by the offense or defense.

Clicking on a player's name will bring you to his FO player page with advanced stats through the most recent season.

[listopencil]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Can someone explain to me why all these circles are roughly the same size, but have totally different values.

Because that number represents an average?