Chiefs Raiders were most fortunate/lucky team in 2016 - Page 2

TigeRRUppeRRcut · 07-21-2017, 05:20 PM

Per ESPN statisticians: http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2...-bill-barnwell

2017 impact: The Raiders won 12 games but outscored their opponents by only 31 points, producing a Pythagorean expectation of 8.7 wins. That gap -- 3.3 wins -- is the fourth-largest since 1989. They're likely to decline.

--

This makes a whole lot of sense if you watched the games. It seemed pretty suspect they were getting strange calls in their favor, especially in that game played in Mexico.
http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/11/hous...reaction-score

sully1983 · 07-21-2017, 06:42 PM

Weren't the Miami Dolphins outscored by quite a bit overall (yet made the playoffs as the 6th seed)?? That would be my choice as the lucky team of last season.

The Faiders did lose Carr for the playoffs, that was a nut punch for them

-King- · 07-21-2017, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackOp

I've been telling everyone that shit was rigged to get their stadium deal...even before the 2016 season started...that they were, in reality, around an 8-8 team...now the math backs it up. The Saints/Texans games were about as bogus as I've ever seen...on par with the Cowboys/Lions play-off game.

The NFL still wont shut-up about them...

More from that article...which was a quality read.

"The leading reception rate among wideouts last year was the 23.5 percent mark posted by Kansas City's Tyreek Hill. Theo Riddick trailed him, but led the way at running back with 21.2 percent. The leading star wideout in this category is A.J. Green, who caught the ball on 19.6 percent of his routes. Perennial rival Julio Jones was below him at 18.4 percent. The top tight end? C.J. Fiedorowicz at 19.2 percent. I didn't see that one coming, either."

The league is rigged so that tyreek leads the league in that stat.
Posted via Mobile Device

Frazod · 07-21-2017, 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 007

I wouldn't call losing your QB for the playoffs very good luck.

It would have been for us.

**Baby Lee** · 07-21-2017, 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TimBone

The Chiefs, Broncos, and Raiders all had some fluky type wins last year. Such is the nature of the NFL.

SNR, is right. If they get that defense together, they're not going away.

I don't understand, what does the quarterback do on defense again?

**MahiMike** · 07-21-2017, 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

You're right-- they aren't an 8 win team. They're a 9 win team.

8-7-1

'Hamas' Jenkins · 07-21-2017, 07:32 PM

The Chiefs finished 2 wins better than their expected Pythagorean W-L. I wouldn't tout that stat too much, especially when so many of their scores, which inflated even their Pythagorean W-L, were on returns, which is not sustainable.

The Chiefs could be better on both offense and defense this year and easily finish 10-6 or worse.

-King- · 07-21-2017, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

The Chiefs finished 2 wins better than their expected Pythagorean W-L. I wouldn't tout that stat too much, especially when so many of their scores, which inflated even their Pythagorean W-L, were on returns, which is not sustainable.

The Chiefs could be better on both offense and defense this year and easily finish 10-6 or worse.

Why would returns not be sustainable when they've been every year under Toub?
Posted via Mobile Device

**DaneMcCloud** · 07-21-2017, 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

The Chiefs finished 2 wins better than their expected Pythagorean W-L. I wouldn't tout that stat too much, especially when so many of their scores, which inflated even their Pythagorean W-L, were on returns, which is not sustainable.

The Chiefs could be better on both offense and defense this year and easily finish 10-6 or worse.

It would take a plane crash for this team to finish below 11-5

**Baby Lee** · 07-21-2017, 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

It would take a plane crash for this team to finish below 11-5

Don't give anyone here any ideas!!

staylor26 · 07-21-2017, 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

The Chiefs finished 2 wins better than their expected Pythagorean W-L. I wouldn't tout that stat too much, especially when so many of their scores, which inflated even their Pythagorean W-L, were on returns, which is not sustainable.

The Chiefs could be better on both offense and defense this year and easily finish 10-6 or worse.

We didn't get return TD's because we got lucky.

We got them because we have Tyreek and Toub.

We had two returns called back on bs penalties too. This is just your glass half empty shit as usual.

**DaneMcCloud** · 07-21-2017, 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by staylor26

We didn't get return TD's because we got lucky.

We got them because we have Tyreek and Toub.

We had two returns called back on bs penalties too. This is just your glass half empty shit as usual.

Ford had two sacks nullified because of penalties (one by Hali).

The Chiefs were better than their record.

ThaVirus · 07-21-2017, 07:54 PM

We really had no business winning @Denver.

@Carolina and @Atlanta were close but barring Peters' miraculous strip and Berry's pick 2 we likely still would/could have won those games

We probably should have won @Houston and at home against Tennessee and TB.

I wouldn't say we were better than our record because 12-4 is damn good but we were pretty good.

I'm expecting a bit of a regression but if Houston can stay healthy I like our chances of getting bounced in the Divisional Round again.

staylor26 · 07-21-2017, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Ford had two sacks nullified because of penalties (one by Hali).

The Chiefs were better than their record.

This team will continue to make plays and score on D/ST's like they have been for the majority of the last 4 seasons. I really don't get the unsustainable shit.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 07-21-2017, 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King-

Why would returns not be sustainable when they've been every year under Toub?
Posted via Mobile Device

Return scores haven't been. They've gone 4,2,0,3 in ST TDs. D TDs are often a product of where the offense is on the play than the defense itself.

And who led the league in D TDs last year? The Chiefs, Chargers, and Falcons with five each. How many did they have the year before? 6, 1, and 4? The year before that? 2,2,3. The numbers are all over the place because return scores, especially on defense, are random.

I'd agree that the Chiefs are likely to gain yards relative to their opponents on special teams and that will help their win expectancy. But it would be foolish to bet on such an extreme number of return TDs again this year (9).

staylor26 · 07-21-2017, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Return scores haven't been. They've gone 4,2,0,3 in ST TDs. D TDs are often a product of where the offense is on the play than the defense itself.

And who led the league in D TDs last year? The Chiefs, Chargers, and Falcons with five each. How many did they have the year before? 6, 1, and 4? The year before that? 2,2,3. The numbers are all over the place because return scores, especially on defense, are random.

I'd agree that the Chiefs are likely to gain yards relative to their opponents on special teams and that will help their win expectancy. But it would be foolish to bet on such an extreme number of return TDs again this year (9).

You're acting like the Chiefs haven't been winning the past 4 seasons regardless of those stats.

This is their most talented roster yet.

You're full of shit.

07-21-2017, 05:20 PM
TigeRRUppeRRcut Banned Join Date: Dec 2014 Location: 19th Hole Casino cash: $10004725	Raiders were most fortunate/lucky team in 2016 Per ESPN statisticians: http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2...-bill-barnwell 2017 impact: The Raiders won 12 games but outscored their opponents by only 31 points, producing a Pythagorean expectation of 8.7 wins. That gap -- 3.3 wins -- is the fourth-largest since 1989. They're likely to decline. -- This makes a whole lot of sense if you watched the games. It seemed pretty suspect they were getting strange calls in their favor, especially in that game played in Mexico. http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/11/hous...reaction-score
Posts: 11,680

07-21-2017, 06:42 PM	#16
sully1983 Veteran Join Date: Apr 2017 Location: Baka Laka Daka street Casino cash: $9200400	Weren't the Miami Dolphins outscored by quite a bit overall (yet made the playoffs as the 6th seed)?? That would be my choice as the lucky team of last season. The Faiders did lose Carr for the playoffs, that was a nut punch for them
Posts: 2,682

07-21-2017, 07:32 PM	#21
'Hamas' Jenkins Now you've pissed me off! Join Date: Jan 2006 Casino cash: $7919572	The Chiefs finished 2 wins better than their expected Pythagorean W-L. I wouldn't tout that stat too much, especially when so many of their scores, which inflated even their Pythagorean W-L, were on returns, which is not sustainable. The Chiefs could be better on both offense and defense this year and easily finish 10-6 or worse. __________________ "When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read 'all men are created equal, except negroes, and foreigners, and Catholics.' When it comes to this I should prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretense of loving liberty – to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure, and without the base alloy of hypocrisy.”--Abraham Lincoln
Posts: 74,860

07-21-2017, 07:54 PM	#27
ThaVirus You gotta kill a few people Join Date: Sep 2007 Casino cash: $1542369	Raiders were most fortunate/lucky team in 2016 We really had no business winning @Denver. @Carolina and @Atlanta were close but barring Peters' miraculous strip and Berry's pick 2 we likely still would/could have won those games We probably should have won @Houston and at home against Tennessee and TB. I wouldn't say we were better than our record because 12-4 is damn good but we were pretty good. I'm expecting a bit of a regression but if Houston can stay healthy I like our chances of getting bounced in the Divisional Round again.
Posts: 44,678