Looking ahead to Sunday Night

[Mile High Mania]

What can the last game at KC tell us ... if anything? First glance, KC let off the throttle - enjoyed a 1H lead thanks to the KO return and Manning/Decker were insanely in synch, especially after halftime.

Should be a cold one, as the high looks like 37 with a low of 29 - so at kickoff it's likely freezing. We'll see, the high on Saturday is 57 and on Monday it's 46, but it doesn't look like it will be wet, so that's good.

The game @ KC a year ago had much warmer temp on 12/1 with 55 degrees at kickoff, so it will be about 20 degrees colder for SNF. Simply being cold and loud is ok, not ideal - but ok.

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...1312010kan.htm

Last year, the Chiefs were up 21-14 at the half and down 35-21 with 7 minutes left before they scored, making it a 35-28 victory.

KC scored a TD on a 108 yd KO return (Davis), had more rushing yards as a team, won the TO battle and ended with a slight advantage on TOP. And while intercepting Manning twice - they couldn't stop him, and with the KC offense not being set up to win a passing battle, it hurt KC. Although, Smith had nearly 300 yards and 2 TDs.

Eric Decker went nuts (4 TDs total) as he caught 3 in the 2nd half, with Manning throwing for 5 TDs and over 400 yds. Montee Ball actually had a good day. Decker and Ball our gone, replaced by Sanders and CJ Anderson this year.

Travis Kelce is a big add for KC in this one and we'll see what they can do with Avant. Denver's defense can't stop anyone on 3rd down and TEs kill them.

I don't see a combined point total over 60 points again - more like 20-17 (KC), but we'll see what happens.

Manning is only 2 TDs and 243 yards off his record pace in 2013 through 11 games, but the ground game is different now ... and while the defense should be better, they haven't played like it lately consistently enough.

Denver needs Julius back in the lineup.. interestingly enough, he didn't play last year in KC either. Julius returning to the lineup is key for me if Denver can win. If Julius isn't playing, Denver loses... I just think he means that much in a game like this on the road.

Say what you will about reverse mojo, but I'm not expecting a Denver win here... not after the way they've played over the last month.

Obviously, I'm fine being wrong here. Let's have some fun this week.

[temper11]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Denver has to stop the 3rd down conversion more than anything in this game. Box up on the run and stick the best cover guy on Kelce. Force Smith to find a WR.

Smith to Bowe has been pretty good this year.... just hasn't connected for TD's but plenty of 1st downs. Avant on the other side (assuming he will be WR2 this week - which I don't know) will only help that scenario. As usual... the Chiefs win or loss is all on the offensive and defensive line. If they can open up lanes and not let Charles get tackled as he is getting the ball handed to him (as what happened multiple times Thursday nights) - good sign for Chiefs. If they can protect long enough for Smith to get to the end of his 3 to 5 step drop and set his feet and connect on the short to medium range passes that everyone loathes so much - good sign for the Chiefs. If the Defensive line (and blitz packages) can pressure manning - good sign for the Chiefs.

As with most games, he who wins in the trenches, wins the game (Bills game notwithstanding).

[Aspengc8]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

I do.

They're the best offense because of the passing game, which we can stop.

Not if they drop four picks like last week.

[Iconic]

I think we win this with solid pass coverage on short to medium routes and sustaining long offensive possessions.

We won't get a ton of pressure on Manning but that won't be a necessity as long as we're limiting his opportunities with the football.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by temper11

Smith to Bowe has been pretty good this year.... just hasn't connected for TD's but plenty of 1st downs.

Interesting to note that yes, Bowe is on pace to have a better year than 2013 in regards to receptions and yards. It's the lack of TDs that give the impression that he does nothing really, at least to the outside viewer.

68 targets with 44 receptions, 32 first downs - really good. That's only 4 catches a game though, with nearly 3 of those being first downs. Bowe has devolved into the safety valve to move the sticks with this 12.5 ypc.

Smith is 28th in the league with 6.76 yards per attempt passing. Smith is 31st in passing yards per game ... the key is to contain the ground game, don't let the TEs get open and Arrowhead is transformed into Puntsville, MO.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

I do.

They're the best offense because of the passing game, which we can stop.

The run game is trickier for us to stop, but it's not a forte of the Donks.

No we can't. Our secondary is overrated none of our corners match up against Denvers WR's.

The Chiefs offense can't score 30 points and the defense can't turn Manning over. This game is a loss.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Denver has to stop the 3rd down conversion more than anything in this game. Box up on the run and stick the best cover guy on Kelce. Force Smith to find a WR.

Denver is allowing 36.7% of 3rd downs to be converted. The league average is 41%.

Actually, Denver is just a bit better than KC right now, they're at 36.9%.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Denver is allowing 36.7% of 3rd downs to be converted. The league average is 41%.

Actually, Denver is just a bit better than KC right now, they're at 36.9%.

I'll say this - as a fan that watches Denver games, you can't tell me that Denver doesn't give up too many critical 3rd down conversions. Every week, it happens. The stats may support the theory that they're not bad - but when it has really mattered to kill a drive, they have given it up.

So, sure the stats may not support the comment, but I've watched too many drives continue because we fall short when it matters on stopping them at 3rd down.

[temper11]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Smith is 28th in the league with 6.76 yards per attempt passing. Smith is 31st in passing yards per game ... the key is to contain the ground game, don't let the TEs get open and Arrowhead is transformed into Puntsville, MO.

Smith has always been near the bottom in yards per attempt passing through his last 3+ years of success. This is not a stat that really matters for the Chiefs this weekend.

31st in passing yards per game. I think this stat is not as important as people think. Chiefs are also near the bottom of the league in number of offensive possessions which is going to directly correlate into passing yards. Chiefs have also enjoyed playing most of their games with the lead which directly correlates to pounding the rock to grind the clock in the later portion of the game. If the Broncos do a decent job containing (not destroying but containing) the run game and take away the TE, but do not get heavy and early pressure on Smith, I still like the Chiefs chances. Short but steady passing plays to Charles, Bowe, Sherman and Avant will do just as good as short plays to Fasano and Kelce. It all hinges on the line.

[Rain Man]

at least they're not playing the raiders this week. Man, that team was tough.

[TEX]

Originally Posted by Chocolate Hog

No we can't. Our secondary is overrated none of our corners match up against Denvers WR's.

The Chiefs offense can't score 30 points and the defense can't turn Manning over. This game is a loss.

Also can't seem to EVER generate a pass rush against them. (Choke holds become legal, especially against Tamba) Do that and the defense has a shot. But yea, I agree withe what you said.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

I'll say this - as a fan that watches Denver games, you can't tell me that Denver doesn't give up too many critical 3rd down conversions. Every week, it happens. The stats may support the theory that they're not bad - but when it has really mattered to kill a drive, they have given it up.

So, sure the stats may not support the comment, but I've watched too many drives continue because we fall short when it matters on stopping them at 3rd down.

I'd love for Denver's 3rd down percentage to be better as well, but I'm guessing that fans of every team think that their team gives up too many 3rd downs on defense and doesn't convert enough 3rd downs on offense.

[Jimmya]

We better have some LONG offensive drives with 7 points scored not 3 or turnover on downs.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

I'd love for Denver's 3rd down percentage to be better as well, but I'm guessing that fans of every team think that their team gives up too many 3rd downs on defense and doesn't convert enough 3rd downs on offense.

I would just simply like to see more 3 and outs.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by Jimmya

We better have some LONG offensive drives with 7 points scored not 3 or turnover on downs.

Long drives and owning the TOP nearly worked out in week 2, Denver had the ball for less than 24 minutes - still put up 24 points.

[TEX]

Originally Posted by Jimmya

We better have some LONG offensive drives with 7 points scored not 3 or turnover on downs.

Yep, very critical to come away with 7 and sustain drives. Honestly, IF the Chiefs ground game is in gear like it was against New England or Seattle, we have a VERY good shot at winning. If not, we don't have much of one.