Royals *** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 *** - Page 195

duncan_idaho · 07-14-2015, 11:05 PM

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

Chiefspants · 07-28-2015, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

Holy ****. Yeah, this place was an oasis of positivity in '09. ****...Sauto damn near drove to KC and skull ****ed DM after the Betancourt trade.

I remember that meltdown well. On par with the Alex Smith meltdown here.

It's not like Chiefsplanet is known for its truefan optimism, but there are enough people who could analyze DM's scouting/rationale (Duncan, Al, etc), and could reasonably conclude that we were trending in the right direction.

After 2013, the Scout forum and the Royals fan club Facebook page became so loaded with illogical cynicism that I made Chiefsplanet my go-to place for Royals information.

**Saul Good** · 07-28-2015, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigMeatballDave

Can we just go ahead and cut Rios?

We should. I mean, he broke his hand in May and then played poorly in June and early July. That's unacceptable. He should have been fully healed and stronger than ever by Jult 1st.

KCUnited · 07-28-2015, 03:34 PM

Wish I'd known about that Scout forum.

Fansy the Famous Bard · 07-28-2015, 03:37 PM

GMDM has a new meaning.

"God Damn Dayton Moore"

The evolution of this guy is probably the biggest story regarding the franchise. He was really, really bad the first half of his stint here. The acquisitions and trades all were seemingly of the thinking that previous regime brought to the table... it felt like the same shit all over again. He really has come a long, long way.

tk13 · 07-28-2015, 03:39 PM

The Scout board used to worship Jack Z in Seattle. He was brilliant, Dayton should be more like him. Not so much now.

**BigMeatballDave** · 07-28-2015, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saul Good

We should. I mean, he broke his hand in May and then played poorly in June and early July. That's unacceptable. He should have been fully healed and stronger than ever by Jult 1st.

He broke it in mid-April. Not his fault, I know, but he's been back full time 2 months. Shit or get off the pot.

Chiefspants · 07-28-2015, 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCUnited

Wish I'd known about that Scout forum.

The Betancourt meltdown was truly legendary.

The forum itself had been mostly filled with George Brett era fans who had become jaded on the idea that the Royals would ever be competitive again. It generally didn't have the highs or complete meltdown lows of Chiefsplanet, but had a consistently negative response to every FO decision and it became difficult for me to process. There are a few exceptions (I think Al is/was on there as well), but eventually I got sick enough of a negativity that I called it quits.

I would guess that the community is now more optimistic about the team.

beer bacon · 07-28-2015, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigMeatballDave

He broke it in mid-April. Not his fault, I know, but he's been back full time 2 months. Shit or get off the pot.

Rios is hitting .325 with a .372 OBP in July.

duncan_idaho · 07-28-2015, 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigMeatballDave

He broke it in mid-April. Not his fault, I know, but he's been back full time 2 months. Shit or get off the pot.

He IS getting off the pot.

His overall line in July is very good - .324/.372/.428, and it's even better since the ASB - .333/.391/.500

Fansy the Famous Bard · 07-28-2015, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

He IS getting off the pot.

His overall line in July is very good - .324/.372/.328, and it's even better since the ASB - .333/.391/.500

actually, i believe he's shitting in this context. Wouldn't "getting off the pot" mean getting out of the way for someone else to hit?

Anyway... The dude is raking... what or should i say mashing.... or wait... ah to hell with it.

**alnorth** · 07-28-2015, 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigMeatballDave

He broke it in mid-April. Not his fault, I know, but he's been back full time 2 months. Shit or get off the pot.

Look at his splits by month

duncan_idaho · 07-28-2015, 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

The Betancourt meltdown was truly legendary.

The forum itself had been mostly filled with George Brett era fans who had become jaded on the idea that the Royals would ever be competitive again. It generally didn't have the highs or complete meltdown lows of Chiefsplanet, but had a consistently negative response to every FO decision and it became difficult for me to process. There are a few exceptions (I think Al is/was on there as well), but eventually I got sick enough of a negativity that I called it quits.

I would guess that the community is now more optimistic about the team.

I was here but not posting a ton because I was working an office job for a company that frowned on places such as Chiefsplanet during work time.

Now I work from home, which is fortunate.

Wasn't MUCH to be positive about in 2009. Gordon looked like a bust, Butler was just OK, Luke Hochevar was terrible, and Hosmer and Moustakas had both struggled to that point in the minors.

The rest of the system looked unimpressive, too. It started to turn in 2010.

**BigMeatballDave** · 07-28-2015, 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beer bacon

Rios is hitting .325 with a .372 OBP in July.

This is actually very surprising.

I don't have the luxury of watching them on TV.

**lewdog** · 07-28-2015, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigMeatballDave

This is actually very surprising.

I don't have the luxury of watching them on TV.

He's played well in July. He can stay a while and we're gonna need him. Hope he keeps trending up.

**DeezNutz** · 07-28-2015, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigMeatballDave

This is actually very surprising.

I don't have the luxury of watching them on TV.

The **** did you think he sucked for then?

07-14-2015, 11:05 PM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1300308	* Official Royals Repository, Part 3 * In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions. Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins One month in: Looking strong All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins. Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro! All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one. Division Preview Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them. Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out. And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture. The Royals will be a division winner IF ... 1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work 2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts 3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland 4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy 5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back. Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015: Spoiler! 1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1 2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time. 3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016. 4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level. 5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable) 6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count. 7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season. 8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup. 9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly. 10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up. Spoiler! 11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags. 12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing. 13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with. 14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced. 15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch. 16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them. 17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching. 18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list. 19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far. 20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
Posts: 21,180

07-28-2015, 03:34 PM	#2913
KCUnited Cheat Death Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Land of Drincoln Casino cash: $1828244	Wish I'd known about that Scout forum.
Posts: 34,189

07-28-2015, 03:37 PM	#2914
Fansy the Famous Bard I'm with the Banned Join Date: Feb 2009 Casino cash: $1946440	GMDM has a new meaning. "God Damn Dayton Moore" The evolution of this guy is probably the biggest story regarding the franchise. He was really, really bad the first half of his stint here. The acquisitions and trades all were seemingly of the thinking that previous regime brought to the table... it felt like the same shit all over again. He really has come a long, long way. __________________ Hi.
Posts: 6,061

07-28-2015, 03:39 PM	#2915
tk13 ... Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $1542500	The Scout board used to worship Jack Z in Seattle. He was brilliant, Dayton should be more like him. Not so much now.
Posts: 55,046