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Old 04-05-2017, 10:55 AM  
Chiefspants Chiefspants is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***

Chiefsplanet’s (Proposed) 2017 Season Title: One Last Ride

Midish-Season Update (Royals 51-47, 2nd Wild Card, 1.5 GB of ALC):

We're halfway through 2017, and fittingly to the Chiefsplanet's 2017 Season Title, the Royals are all-in on what will likely be one final run with the current core. While many are worried the Royals will take a 2004 style tumble after this year, the farm system is hardly the barren wasteland it was during the Baird years. To see what's in the pipeline and what we have to look forward to, check out this exceptional list and analysis that Duncan put together of our system.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0

While I had the honor of starting this thread this year, Duncan will always have a VIP pass to this OP, and can add more content at any time.

2017's Burning Questions Revisited:

1. What is the threshold between being “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline?

We're buyers, baby.

In April, I argued that it would be a wise strategy for us to sell if we were 5 GB or worse, but that Dayton would likely add supplemental pieces for us to load up for another run if we were 1-2 GB. On July 24th, the Royals found themselves in sole possession of the 2nd wild card spot and 1.5 games back of the division. In April I said the Royals might pull the trigger on someone like Alex Cobb and resign Luke Hochevar, but since the Rays are also buyers and Luke's shoulder hasn't rebounded, this prediction hasn't come to fruition. Luckily, Dayton Moore again proved much more adept and creative than me by adding Trevor Cahill (good call, Duncan), Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter in a single trade. Giving us a solid starter to compete in 2017, and two relievers whom we will control through 2019 and 2021, respectively, keeping Moore's new vision through 2019-2020 intact. Moore has hinted that the Royals will continue to pursue the right deals if they're there, so the fun may not be over just yet. While we may not have the bullets to pull in a "star" like Cueto or Zo, Moore's adeptness may yet again net us what we need for another run in October.

2. Can Gordo and Moose bounce back to 2015 levels?

In April I asked if Gordo could at least set the table at a 265/325/425 clip and if Moose could deliver damage around a 265/335/500 clip for an entire year. This season Mr. Moustakas has been the prospect that was promised, delivering at a 277/307/568 clip as of this update. Gordo, on the other hand, has put up an unbelievably abysmal line thus far. But, if there is a silver lining, it's that Gordo has performed at a 246/311/432 line since June 1st, and if he can continue to perform near that mark, he will be more than a valuable asset at the bottom of the lineup while he continues to provide the best LF defense in the league.

3. Can Ned Yost manage a bullpen?

In April, I felt that despite the poor start, Royals bullpen would ultimately be "solid" this year, but the question was whether "solid" was good enough for Ned. I argued that the Royals needed Soria to bounce back and that Ned would need to start being strategic in his L/L and R/R matchups. While Ned has still made at times baffling and frustrating decisions with his starters (such as allowing Travis Wood to try to "get the win" and still insisting on sending Hammel out for the 6th, he's mostly done a good job).

MASH: Minor/Moylan - Alexander - Soria - Herrera (Credit to C3HIEF3S for the origins of the phrase) have cemented into reliable pieces, and now that Herrera is showing signs of stabilizing, our dumping of Wood, our call up Flynn, and the acquisition of Buchter and Maurer, the Royals have the potential to enter October with one of the best and deepest bullpens in the postseason.

4. Will the Royals find a boost from an unexpected X-Factor to lift them to contention?

Cool-Whit, Boni, Mike ****ing Minor, and Alexander have come up huge thus far. Cool Whit is, incredibly, is second on the team in WAR and has more than replaced Zo's presence on the team. They, like the X-Factors on the 2014-2015 teams, have been critical cogs as we've raced back to contention, while Cool-Whit and Boni also have provided a rosier outlook for this team's future. It's worth noting that Salvador Perez and Jason Vargas has been beasts on offense and the mound (along with Sal providing his customary defensive excellence), but I am still a bit wary of Salvy's annual Yost assisted offensive drought as the team moves into August, along with Vargy regressing to his averages.

5. Can Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss be productive contributors in Kauffman’s dimensions?

Ouch, no, but the Royals shift to power-hitting in the juiced ball era looks like one that will pay off. Thankfully, Moss is showing signs of entering his seasonal hot streak where he becomes corn-fed Jesus for a month, and we'll need him hot to keep up with Cleveland down the stretch. While Jorge has been painful to watch in the majors, his scorching performance in AAA should give one a bright hope for the future. While some may disagree, I offer Moose, Hos, Gordo, and Duffy's struggles as exhibit A for why it is far too early to give up on Soler's potential.

Bonus Question - Is Raul Mondesi truly ready to be an everyday player?

Ha! Not even close. However, like Soler, his progress in AAA is incredibly encouraging. With ceilings like Lindor and floors being Esky being thrown out there, it's hard not to be excited about his future.

The Picture Forward

There are many reasons to be excited, and not only for 2017. The Royals emergence of Cool Whit, Bonifacio, and Scott Alexander, and the fact that we have pieces like Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera, Jorge Soler, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer Cheslor Cuthbert, and Raul Mondesi until at least 2019 should leave one feeling pretty optimistic. Re-up Moose or Hos (and heck, re-sign Dyson while we're at it), and suddenly this team looks very much like one that could compete for the indefinite future.

The Royals are all in again, buckle in and enjoy the ride.

April OP:

Spoiler!

Last edited by Chiefspants; 08-02-2017 at 01:53 PM..
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Old 06-26-2017, 07:40 AM   #2836
Fansy the Famous Bard Fansy the Famous Bard is offline
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Thanks. I do wonder if there is a way to adjust or improve the metric ... perhaps by excluding outliers or capping the "credit" you can get for a single win. A blowout cap... capping it at 5-7 runs would probably adjust the stat a little more realistically.

The statistic will always skew towards teams with high-powered offenses because those will do more damage against the types of pitchers used in blowouts, but a run cap might make it more realistic.


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That's an interesting idea... "Adjusted Run Differential" I'm surprised something like that hasn't caught on yet. Duncan, here's your chance for some glory! Reach out to the baseball gods and make it happen.
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Old 06-26-2017, 07:49 AM   #2837
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Originally Posted by fahrenheit View Post
That's an interesting idea... "Adjusted Run Differential" I'm surprised something like that hasn't caught on yet. Duncan, here's your chance for some glory! Reach out to the baseball gods and make it happen.


I'll mess with something at some point this week. Then go back and apply it to teams that have been much better than RD would suggest (13-15 Royals, 2012 Orioles, 2011 or 2012 Dbacks, etc).


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Old 06-26-2017, 08:06 AM   #2838
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
Also: this weekend series great example of why I always take run differential with a grain of salt.

The Royals won the series 2-1 but were -4 in run differential. Run differential hard cores - often stats-first and only guys - would tell you posting a .667 winning percentage with a -4 RD is luck.

Does anyone think the Royals were actually outperformed in that series?

I'll look up the total RD for May and June at some point today. I believe it will be negative for KC despite a record that is 10 games over .500 in that span.

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I do think they were outplayed by the Jays during the series. We were lucky to win Friday, won a close one Saturday, and got beat decisively on Sunday.
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Old 06-26-2017, 08:21 AM   #2839
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Whether or not the Royals were 'lucky', you could debate it either way.

But what has always baffled me with regards to mainstream sports media, 'analytics experts' and most fans is this idea that runs scored in the 1st through 6th innings are somehow more 'valuable' and indicative of a teams strength than runs scored in the 7th, 8th and 9th? I heard about this repeatedly all through the World Series against the Mets.

Yes, the Royals were a good 'scrappy' team and had a great bullpen BUT the Mets had the lead late in most of those games and they really blew that series.

Am I missing something here? Was a baseball game not designed to go 9 innings? Since when did we decide it was okay to punish a team for being clutch in late inning big game pressure situations? Is it just because it's the aww shucks midwestern based Kansas City Royals? My guess is that has something to with it because god knows if the Yankees ever won a World Series using the formula that the Royals did, the media and everyone would be proclaiming them the greatest 'clutch' team in the history of Major League Baseball.
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Old 06-26-2017, 08:38 AM   #2840
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Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin View Post
Whether or not the Royals were 'lucky', you could debate it either way.

But what has always baffled me with regards to mainstream sports media, 'analytics experts' and most fans is this idea that runs scored in the 1st through 6th innings are somehow more 'valuable' and indicative of a teams strength than runs scored in the 7th, 8th and 9th? I heard about this repeatedly all through the World Series against the Mets.

Yes, the Royals were a good 'scrappy' team and had a great bullpen BUT the Mets had the lead late in most of those games and they really blew that series.

Am I missing something here? Was a baseball game not designed to go 9 innings? Since when did we decide it was okay to punish a team for being clutch in late inning big game pressure situations? Is it just because it's the aww shucks midwestern based Kansas City Royals? My guess is that has something to with it because god knows if the Yankees ever won a World Series using the formula that the Royals did, the media and everyone would be proclaiming them the greatest 'clutch' team in the history of Major League Baseball.
I really wasn't agreeing with you until that last sentence. I was thinking that naturally the human psyche watches a game for say.. 3 hours... 2 and a half of that a team leads and basically outplays the other.. .then the last half hour of it the other team wins it. In your mind it feels like the better team didn't win. And you're right it's a whole game with 1 winner and 1 loser, regardless of how it got there. But the human element brings us to that measurement of "the better team".

Then that last statement in bold. I think about that a bit deeper, and you're dead on.. which makes me think that there's just no easy answer.
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Old 06-26-2017, 11:09 AM   #2841
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Moose is 400,000 votes away from 1st in all star voting. People need to vote! Merrifield has moved into 4th place but he isn't getting past Altuve
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Old 06-26-2017, 11:11 AM   #2842
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
Also: this weekend series great example of why I always take run differential with a grain of salt.

The Royals won the series 2-1 but were -4 in run differential. Run differential hard cores - often stats-first and only guys - would tell you posting a .667 winning percentage with a -4 RD is luck.

Does anyone think the Royals were actually outperformed in that series?

I'll look up the total RD for May and June at some point today. I believe it will be negative for KC despite a record that is 10 games over .500 in that span.

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I agree, run differential is not a great way to judge a team. All innings are not created equal. Chris Young coming out to pitch in a 5-0 game and lets up 6 runs, that game was already given up on. I feel like alot of those teams with high run differential have the high walk, high hr guys who feast upon bad pitchers. And they don't get to face those pitchers in the post season.
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Old 06-26-2017, 06:15 PM   #2843
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No ball tonight, but we've got news.

The Royals have reinstated Brian Flynn from the 60-day DL, coming back from his epically-odious barn injury. Subsequently, he has been sent to Omaha for the time being. Additionally, Nate Karns has been transferred to the 60-day DL. Rustin Dodd reports via Twitter that he is eligible to return July 20th, so the move must be retroactive. But still, the Royals shouldn't be counting on his return before August. Everything coming out on Karns doesn't sound favorable.

Will be interesting to see how GMDM chooses to fill that void if the Strahm/Junis duo falters.
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Old 06-26-2017, 06:19 PM   #2844
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Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S View Post
No ball tonight, but we've got news.

The Royals have reinstated Brian Flynn from the 60-day DL, coming back from his epically-odious barn injury. Subsequently, he has been sent to Omaha for the time being. Additionally, Nate Karns has been transferred to the 60-day DL. Rustin Dodd reports via Twitter that he is eligible to return July 20th, so the move must be retroactive. But still, the Royals shouldn't be counting on his return before August. Everything coming out on Karns doesn't sound favorable.

Will be interesting to see how GMDM chooses to fill that void if the Strahm/Junis duo falters.
Karns current trajectory reminds me of Vargas' in 2015.

"It's not the UCL." "We're very sure it's not the UCL." "Okay, we're positive it's not the UCL"

2 months later.

"It's the UCL"
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Old 06-26-2017, 06:22 PM   #2845
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Originally Posted by Chiefspants View Post
Karns current trajectory reminds me of Vargas' in 2015.

"It's not the UCL." "We're very sure it's not the UCL." "Okay, we're positive it's not the UCL"

2 months later.

"It's the UCL"
Pretty sure this is what's happening


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Old 06-26-2017, 06:31 PM   #2846
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Originally Posted by Chiefspants View Post
Karns current trajectory reminds me of Vargas' in 2015.

"It's not the UCL." "We're very sure it's not the UCL." "Okay, we're positive it's not the UCL"

2 months later.

"It's the UCL"
Man, Vargas' injury was straight up depressing. After two DL-stints no less. All of that time just to come back and blow it out completely.

Karns has had a major injury history, of many different body parts. He's served DL-time, on separate occasions, for his back, shoulder, forearm and now his elbow. Last year he was placed on the 15-day DL in July for his back, just for it to linger.. and linger.. and linger, in what would eventually lead to him being sent to the 60-day and done for the year.
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Old 06-26-2017, 06:32 PM   #2847
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Originally Posted by Chiefspants View Post
Karns current trajectory reminds me of Vargas' in 2015.

"It's not the UCL." "We're very sure it's not the UCL." "Okay, we're positive it's not the UCL"

2 months later.



"It's the UCL"
Added theatrics, makes me cringe.
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Old 06-26-2017, 06:40 PM   #2848
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Both Twins and Indians losing currently.

Also, I didn't realize Boston had both David Price and Chris Sale. Seems like if we face them in the playoffs we'll we'll induce the usual Price meltdown and classic Hosmer leftie vs Chris Sale home run.
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Old 06-26-2017, 06:42 PM   #2849
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Added theatrics, makes me cringe.
That was even more painful to watch than I remembered.

It does make my mind hypothesize how 2015 may have been different with a healthy Vargas. Yordano Ventura took a straight U-turn from Omaha after this moment and pitched like a straight up Ace in the second half of 2015. Only 2 games separated us from having home field advantage to playing on the road to start the ALCS against the Jays. Perhaps we still take them down, but if we played up to four games in that little league sandbox, I'm honestly not sure.

I also was also more concerned about the Rangers in the 2015 playoffs than the Jays. With their lefty starters in a short series, our season could have theoretically ended in Arlington.

Speaking of 2015, that video reminded me what an unsung hero Joe flippin' Blanton was to our season. Amazing that a team that relied on over 400 combined regular season and playoff innings from Edinson Volquez, Chris Young and Joe Blanton would go the distance, but here we are.
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Old 06-26-2017, 06:57 PM   #2850
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chiefspants View Post

Speaking of 2015, that video reminded me what an unsung hero Joe flippin' Blanton was to our season. Amazing that a team that relied on over 400 combined regular season and playoff innings from Edinson Volquez, Chris Young and Joe Blanton would go the distance, but here we are.
Means nothing if your run differential is shit, bud.

/Canadians.
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