Royals *** Official 2017 Royals Offseason Repository - Page 173

duncan_idaho · 09:07 PM

The reign is over. Time to begin the quest for the next one.

Interesting offseason opens for the Royals. Will they go all in for one last shot with this crew? Will they re-tool for 2018 and beyond? Will Dayton Moore actually decrease payroll this time?

Trades, free agent signings, rumors, plans, proposals... dump 'em all here, for this is... the offseason repository!

Royals Top Prospects, 2017

This is a list that’s going to seem a little bleak initially, as Raul Mondesi got enough ABs to age out of the prospect rankings (just barely – at 135 ABs, he is not rookie eligible). But that said, I like the talent and feel like this is a system that will actually be underrated by the prospect services.

Spoiler!

DJ's left nut · 03-09-2017, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Sounds like you're using chicken-and-egg reasoning. Is he hitting it harder leading to my flyballs, or is he trying to hit more fly balls and swinging harder?

He started lofting the ball concurrent when he started pulling it. Which is what many of us have been screaming at Hos. Pull the damn ball! Quit protecting 2-2 and slapping oppo field singles. That's for Nori Aoki and Alcides

Hitting more fly balls doesn't equal hitting a ball harder at all. Hell, look at Martinez's own words - you can absolutely blast a ball; exit velocity of 100 mph+ and still not hit a fly ball. Meanwhile an 82 mph exit velocity could easily be a fly ball.

His fly ball rates only changed one year; in the other 2 years, he had very average fly ball rates and still had a very elevated BABIP. Why? Because he hit the ball really damn hard. In the air, on a line, on the ground; whatever, the ball was well struck.

He's never 'lofted' the ball. He did a bit more in 2015 but in his other 2 premier years his batted ball profiles were virtually identical. You're making a classic causation/correlation mistake here. He made adjustments that allowed him to hit the ball with more authority and that made him a better hitter. But he didn't do anything to substantially alter the number of fly balls he hit and if he actually did do so in '15, he reverted pretty much to where he'd always been in '16.

Demonpenz · 03-09-2017, 01:55 PM

Hosmers swing sucks.

Prison Bitch · 03-09-2017, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Hitting more fly balls doesn't equal hitting a ball harder at all. Hell, look at Martinez's own words - you can absolutely blast a ball; exit velocity of 100 mph+ and still not hit a fly ball. Meanwhile an 82 mph exit velocity could easily be a fly ball.

His fly ball rates only changed one year; in the other 2 years, he had very average fly ball rates and still had a very elevated BABIP. Why? Because he hit the ball really damn hard. In the air, on a line, on the ground; whatever, the ball was well struck.

He's never 'lofted' the ball. He did a bit more in 2015 but in his other 2 premier years his batted ball profiles were virtually identical. You're making a classic causation/correlation mistake here. He made adjustments that allowed him to hit the ball with more authority and that made him a better hitter. But he didn't do anything to substantially alter the number of fly balls he hit and if he actually did do so in '15, he reverted pretty much to where he'd always been in '16.

Normally I agree with what you post but this is one of those times I won't. Per StatCast, Hoz had a higher exit velocity than JD last year, 93.4 - 91.9. (17th vs 52nd). Yet distance was 213-236. JD pulls it and puts loft on it and that's why it goes farther. Not because he's "hitting the shit out of it"

Consider this: Hoz avg HR distance 403'. JD 397'. The takeaway is clear, Hoz has untapped power. Lots of it. His exit velo is up there with Sano/Trumbo/CabreraDonaldson. He just needs to cut loose

DJ's left nut · 03-09-2017, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Normally I agree with what you post but this is one of those times I won't. Per StatCast, Hoz had a higher exit velocity than JD last year, 93.4 - 91.9. (17th vs 52nd). Yet distance was 213-236. JD pulls it and puts loft on it and that's why it goes farther. Not because he's "hitting the shit out of it"

Consider this: Hoz avg HR distance 403'. JD 397'. The takeaway is clear, Hoz has untapped power. Lots of it. His exit velo is up there with Sano/Trumbo/CabreraDonaldson. He just needs to cut loose

Hey, I won't argue that Hosmer's swing is an active deterrent to his power - of course it is.

I'm just saying that the idea that putting some of those balls in the air isn't going to hurt his BABIP is false. A 93 mph grounder is going to find holes a lot of the time. A 93 mph popup is gonna find a mitt.

It's almost certainly a trade worth making and yeah, Hosmer's swing is a mess. But it's also super long and I think if he were to make changes designed to give him more loft, he'll spend a lot less time in the hitting zone. You'll see some serious contact issues that pop up if he started trying to get more air under the ball.

But again - I'm not a fair barometer as I just don't think Hosmer's a great player. He's a rich man's Travis Lee; good defensive player who people will wait 10 years to turn into the prospect he was supposed to be but in the end, just not as good as people thought he was.

If he'll ever prove me wrong, this will be the year. I just think at this point he's a guy coasting on draft position and a couple of ABs in October. That's a reason to like someone looking back but it's not predictive and no reason to suggest a player will be great going forward.

cosmo20002 · 03-10-2017, 01:39 AM

Your semi-regular WBC update:

Italy scores 5 in the bottom of the ninth to take Mexico 10-9.

Drew Butera, DH: 2-4, HR, RBI, 2R

Joakim Soria: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 K, 0 R

Prison Bitch · 03-10-2017, 10:13 AM

Trivia: Dodgers will be 1 payroll. Who will be 2?

Great Expectations · 03-10-2017, 10:17 AM

Tigers

Prison Bitch · 03-10-2017, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

Tigers

Really not all that impressive when you look up the answer. You'd have never guessed that first.

Fansy the Famous Bard · 03-10-2017, 10:59 AM

I would have said either BoSox\Yankees being #2. Didn't realize the Tigers were that high.

Great Expectations · 03-10-2017, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Really not all that impressive when you look up the answer. You'd have never guessed that first.

Looking it up shows that the correct answer is the NY Yankees. I figured if it was them you wouldn't have asked. The Tiger's have some awful contracts and only a couple of young/control guys. My next guess would've been the Giants because who would ask that as a trivia question if the answer was either the Yankees or Bo Sox?

DJ's left nut · 03-10-2017, 02:50 PM

Wow - the Cubs, with 5 cost controlled studs as well as an arb eligible ace starting pitcher, still have the 5th highest payroll in baseball.

Sonsabitches.

Prison Bitch · 03-10-2017, 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

Looking it up shows that the correct answer is the NY Yankees. I figured if it was them you wouldn't have asked. The Tiger's have some awful contracts and only a couple of young/control guys. My next guess would've been the Giants because who would ask that as a trivia question if the answer was either the Yankees or Bo Sox?

jd1020 · 03-10-2017, 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Wow - the Cubs, with 5 cost controlled studs as well as an arb eligible ace starting pitcher, still have the 5th highest payroll in baseball.

Sonsabitches.

Great Expectations · 03-10-2017, 07:24 PM

I don't subscribe to fangraphs.

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

Rasputin · 03-11-2017, 06:03 AM

Awesomeness

I haven't bought baseball cards in years, 20 actually sad to say. Usually I just buy my son some NFL cards and we collect them together but today I bought two packs of Topps 2016 and I at least scored my favorite player of all time Eric Hosmer. I should have thought of this sooner but I want to collect all of 20014/2015 Royals that was exciting to find a Royal and not to sound repetitive or redundant but Eric Hosmer is my favorite player I shouldn't even have to repeat myself about Eric Hosmer being my favorite player.

Now I remember what it was like opening them as a kid the disappointment of not finding any Chiefs or the reward of finding Chiefs players in a pack. I don't know why but I don't get near as excited when I find a Chiefs player but finding a Royal seamed special that they just won a WS at least twice in my life time but I can't say that about the Chiefs

just shy four years

Damn I'm happy and I made myself depressed at the same time.

11-03-2016, 09:11 PM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1350308	* Official 2017 Royals Offseason Repository * The reign is over. Time to begin the quest for the next one. Interesting offseason opens for the Royals. Will they go all in for one last shot with this crew? Will they re-tool for 2018 and beyond? Will Dayton Moore actually decrease payroll this time? Trades, free agent signings, rumors, plans, proposals... dump 'em all here, for this is... the offseason repository! Royals Top Prospects, 2017 This is a list that’s going to seem a little bleak initially, as Raul Mondesi got enough ABs to age out of the prospect rankings (just barely – at 135 ABs, he is not rookie eligible). But that said, I like the talent and feel like this is a system that will actually be underrated by the prospect services. Spoiler! Format: POS/Name/2017 Projected Final Level 1) 3B/OF Hunter Dozier, MLB. Dozier bounced back from a disastrous 2015 campaign that had many wondering, myself included, if he was wrecked. His strong offensive performance in 2016 saw Dozier recapture the mature approach that many liked coming up, while also starting to tap into his above-average raw power for the first time. In addition to his success at the plate, Dozier also proved he could at least HANDLE an OF spot, which could put him in the conversation for 2017 playing time at the major leagues. If the Royals DO end up trading Cheslor Cuthbert, Dozier could find a decent amount of MLB playing time sliding between RF and 3B. With Moustakas recovering from knee surgery, he likely will need more regular breaks from the field. And the streaky Paulo Orlando is just not an intriguing short-side platoon partner for Jarrod Dyson. 2) LHP Matt Strahm, MLB. Strahm just barely skates under the rookie eligibility rules for a pitcher, so he can be included here. Royals fans already got a taste of the lefty’s abilities, as he used his above-average fastball and slurve to dominate out of the pen in 2016. For him to translate that dominance to the rotation, Strahm will need to maintain his velocity (92-94) and continue to improve a changeup that flashed average at times. If the changeup becomes a weapon he can lean on against righties, Strahm could be a very solid mid-rotation starter and fringe ToR/No. 2 type (think Danny Duffy-lite). 3) RHP Josh Staumont, AAA. This one could blow up on me and look really silly by this time next year, but I’m encouraged by what we saw from Staumont late last year. He showed significantly improved control down the stretch for Northwest Arkansas, including some impressive playoff starts, while maintaining the big-time K ability. That trend continued in the Arizona Fall League. If Staumont’s control holds, the Royals have a guy with a plus fastball, plus-plus curve, and average change (with a slider that could develop into a real weapon as he matures). He’ll start next season at AAA and could be an addition to the MLB bullpen or even the rotation before the season ends. 4) RF Jorge Bonifacio, AAA. Boni, like Dozier, had a bounceback season in 2016 with the bat, and also played 15-20 pounds lighter than the year before, which added some nice defensive utility according to reports I’ve gotten. He now looks like a guy could provide solid/average RF production in the major leagues… Average defense paired with potential to put up a .275/.335/.450 line. While that’s not all-star level, it IS playable. Especially at pre-arbitration dollars. He’ll get another year in Omaha to refine his approach, and likely be in the mix of a 2018 mini-youth movement… unless moved for MLB reinforcements. 5) C Meibrys Viloria, Low-A (Lexington). I haven’t seen him in person, but I like the pedigree. You’ve got a lefthanded hitting catcher with the defensive ability to stick behind the plate. He was a big-bonus guy out of Colombia (nearly $500k). And his offensive performance has been highly impressive early, with a good combination of power, plate discipline, and contact skills. He’s forever away from the majors, just now clearing rookie ball, but Viloria is the most exciting prospect KC has had at Idaho Falls since someone on this board was gushing about a 16-year-old SS tearing it up. 6) 1B Ryan O’Hearn, AAA. O’Hearn is a guy who has never gotten a lot of hype from scouts, but he continues to be a strong producer. He’s someone who likely will strikeout about 25 percent of the time at the big-league level, but has the ability to be a .500+ SLG guy. That plays. He also has shown good patience at the plate, posting above-average OBPs at every level. Bold prediction: I won’t be shocked if O’Hearn takes over at 1B for KC in 2018/2019 and provides similar offensive production to Hosmer out of the gate. He’s probably never going to be a consistent plus average (.290+) hitter, but .270 with 25 HR is something within reach for him. He’ll get his first shot at AAA in 2017. 7) RHP AJ Puckett, A+. Puckett is a high floor, low-ceiling guy who performed about as you’d expect in 2016 after being the Royals’ first pick in the 2016 Rule IV Draft. He’s not flashy, but Puckett does profile as a solid potential back-end starter. Good fastball command and an above-average changeup are his calling cards. If Puckett finds a reliable breaking ball to put batters away, this could tick up. Great athlete, very similar to Jake Odorizzi in that regard. 8) RF Khalil Lee, Low-A (Lexington). Lee was a two-way player in HS and many viewed him as a pitcher first as a pro, but the Royals drafted him as an OF and were reward with a strong debut campaign. Lee is not a big guy, but he produced solid power numbers despite that. He’s a dynamic athlete who could contribute with power and speed. 9) C Chase Vallot, High-A (Wilmington). Vallot has an intriguing bat, with plus raw power. Got off to a great start in 16 before being sidelined and then sidetracked by injury. RH bat may be good enough to push him out from behind the plate, where he has good tools but a long way to go. 10) RHP Jake Junis and RHP Alec Mills (AAA). I'm copping out here and including both at No. 10 because they're so similar. Like Puckett, they each project as a serviceable back of rotation starter. Similar stuff and profiles, though Junis has shown a little better strikeout ability and may have a smidge more upside as a result. Others of note: SS/CF Marten Gasparini. Production has been bad for this toolsy player, but Gasparini has speed and pop that jump out at you. At only 19, need to be patient with him... this European signee was even less polished when signing at 16 than the typical Latin America prospect. OF Seuly Matias. Loud, loud tools. Matias profiles as a classic RF... big-time power potential. He's a long ways from the majors but is one of the Royals' biggest bonus babies from LA. RHP Ashe Russell. 2014 1st rounder saw his velocity disappear last year and was quickly shut down. He's intriguing one way or the other, even if he ends up as another notch in the belt of the TINSTAAPP saying. 2B Corey Toups. O'Hearn's HS teammate has been an above-average producer for an up-the-middle player. His small stature hides a surprising amount of pop. Could turn into a Mark Grudzielanek type of offensive second baseman at his peak - solid average, lots of 2Bs. RHP Scott Blewett, LHP Foster Griffin, RHP Nolan Watson - all three have underwhelmed as pros but were drafted in the supplemental round. Stuff and projectability for each is a positive. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of them take a Cody Reed-like step forward this season and crack the 50-75 range on prospect lists. They all have the natural ability. SS/2B Ricky Aracena - Jose Altuve-sized Aracena is a switch hitting middle infielder who can flat out run. Switch hitter with a good approach. RHP Pedro Fernandez - I'm still a believer in his stuff, even if he is destined for the pen. Was having a nice 2016 start until injuries derailed him right after his promotion to AA. Sirs not Appearing in this Prospect List: RHP Kyle Zimmer. Same story, different year. The Royals are hopeful they FINALLY found the cause of Zimmer's achy shoulder. If they really did, and he can stay healthy, the talent/potential is exciting. OF Bubba Starling. Never trust a guy named Derek. Last edited by duncan_idaho; 02-22-2017 at 09:07 PM..
Posts: 21,173

03-09-2017, 01:55 PM	#2582
Demonpenz Woman should only make babies Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Apartment "G UNIT!" Casino cash: $2822136	Hosmers swing sucks. __________________
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03-10-2017, 01:39 AM	#2585
cosmo20002 Debunking your bullshit Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: KC area Casino cash: $4890315	Your semi-regular WBC update: Italy scores 5 in the bottom of the ninth to take Mexico 10-9. Drew Butera, DH: 2-4, HR, RBI, 2R Joakim Soria: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 K, 0 R
Posts: 52,592

03-10-2017, 10:13 AM	#2586
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	Trivia: Dodgers will be 1 payroll. Who will be 2?
Posts: 87,025

03-10-2017, 10:17 AM	#2587
Great Expectations MVP Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: Joplin, MO Casino cash: $13322338	Tigers __________________
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03-10-2017, 10:59 AM	#2589
Fansy the Famous Bard I'm with the Banned Join Date: Feb 2009 Casino cash: $1986440	I would have said either BoSox\Yankees being #2. Didn't realize the Tigers were that high. __________________ Hi.
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03-10-2017, 02:50 PM	#2591
DJ's left nut Sauntering Vaguely Downwards Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Columbia, Mo Casino cash: $2599099	Wow - the Cubs, with 5 cost controlled studs as well as an arb eligible ace starting pitcher, still have the 5th highest payroll in baseball. Sonsabitches. __________________ "If there's a god, he's laughing at us.....and our football team..." "When you look at something through rose colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags."
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03-10-2017, 07:24 PM	#2594
Great Expectations MVP Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: Joplin, MO Casino cash: $13322338	I don't subscribe to fangraphs. http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/ __________________
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03-11-2017, 06:03 AM	#2595
Rasputin Tip of the hat LIV Champs Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: ks Casino cash: $3135421	Awesomeness I haven't bought baseball cards in years, 20 actually sad to say. Usually I just buy my son some NFL cards and we collect them together but today I bought two packs of Topps 2016 and I at least scored my favorite player of all time Eric Hosmer. I should have thought of this sooner but I want to collect all of 20014/2015 Royals that was exciting to find a Royal and not to sound repetitive or redundant but Eric Hosmer is my favorite player I shouldn't even have to repeat myself about Eric Hosmer being my favorite player. Now I remember what it was like opening them as a kid the disappointment of not finding any Chiefs or the reward of finding Chiefs players in a pack. I don't know why but I don't get near as excited when I find a Chiefs player but finding a Royal seamed special that they just won a WS at least twice in my life time but I can't say that about the Chiefs just shy four years Damn I'm happy and I made myself depressed at the same time.
Posts: 54,986