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Old 07-14-2015, 11:05 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 ***

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

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Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:
Spoiler!

Spoiler!
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Old 07-27-2015, 11:20 PM   #2566
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Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 View Post
I'll tell you what ... Yesterday I picked Toronto as the 2nd wild card. Today? I predict a collapse
I think what's scary is if they have that offense and then also go add some pitching. I can't imagine they did this without also having a line on a pitching upgrade. I still love our team, nothing any other team does will change that. But Tulo is a pretty big upgrade on Reyes at this point. He looked like a shell of his former self earlier this year at the K.
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Old 07-27-2015, 11:20 PM   #2567
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It could be enough for them to bash their way through the AL East, though. That lineup is going to play extremely well in all of the AL East parks EXCEPT for Tampa.

The Yankees have better SP at the 1-2 spots and a much better bullpen, but other than that, there isn't really a rotation in that division that is better than theirs.

They are, however, 7 games back from the Yankees. That's a lot to make up this point but not insurmountable.

It would suck to make this type of deal, though, and end up in a one-game wildcard facing Dallas Keuchel...
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Old 07-27-2015, 11:22 PM   #2568
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Yeah I think an even bigger concern is this might actually wake up the Yankees. I don't want them getting Kimbrel. They would actually be able to move their closer, Miller, to the 7th inning and go Miller/Betances/Kimbrel. They could at least match our bullpen every step of the way.
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Old 07-27-2015, 11:24 PM   #2569
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
It could be enough for them to bash their way through the AL East, though. That lineup is going to play extremely well in all of the AL East parks EXCEPT for Tampa.

The Yankees have better SP at the 1-2 spots and a much better bullpen, but other than that, there isn't really a rotation in that division that is better than theirs.

They are, however, 7 games back from the Yankees. That's a lot to make up this point but not insurmountable.

It would suck to make this type of deal, though, and end up in a one-game wildcard facing Dallas Keuchel...

I'd like to know what minor leaguers Toronto gave up, because they should have been elite prospects. Reyes is basically an average starting shortstop now who derives almost all his value from the basepaths, which will continue to decline. He's already below average as a defender.

It makes Toronto's offense even more terrifying, and in a one game playoff they could just bludgeon Keuchel.

If those aren't three B+ to A- prospects then it's just a salary dump.
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Old 07-27-2015, 11:30 PM   #2570
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Yeah I think an even bigger concern is this might actually wake up the Yankees. I don't want them getting Kimbrel. They would actually be able to move their closer, Miller, to the 7th inning and go Miller/Betances/Kimbrel. They could at least match our bullpen every step of the way.
For sure ... but the O's had Britton, Miller and O'day last year. Our SP > the Yankees with Cueto.

Miller / Betances and Kimbrel would make our bullpen look pedestrian lolol
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Old 07-27-2015, 11:30 PM   #2571
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Rosenthal alluded to this on MLB Network. Wasn't sure Tulo knew this was coming. Not sure how well that was going to go over.


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Old 07-27-2015, 11:30 PM   #2572
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Morosi saying Daniel Norris isn't in the deal
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Old 07-27-2015, 11:32 PM   #2573
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Tulo has never had jaw dropping road splits ... super meh
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Old 07-27-2015, 11:32 PM   #2574
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Old 07-27-2015, 11:35 PM   #2575
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I'd like to know what minor leaguers Toronto gave up, because they should have been elite prospects. Reyes is basically an average starting shortstop now who derives almost all his value from the basepaths, which will continue to decline. He's already below average as a defender.

It makes Toronto's offense even more terrifying, and in a one game playoff they could just bludgeon Keuchel.

If those aren't three B+ to A- prospects then it's just a salary dump.
Yeah, apparently Norris is not in the deal, and it would be hard to believe Toronto has traded Pompey since he's a local hero and all that.

Sean Reid-Foley is probably a top 75 type, but that's not enough to headline the deal. Jeff Hoffman also falls into that category. Richard Urena might make sense to be involved... 19-year-old holding his own at AA who has the glove to stick at SS and surprising pop.
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Old 07-27-2015, 11:36 PM   #2576
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Blue Jays line up is just nuts. I hope they dont get some pitching to go along with it. Hope Cueto goes in there and just pitches a CG shut out. How great would that be
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Old 07-27-2015, 11:38 PM   #2577
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The angels and Orioles both had fantastic offenses last year and what happened to them when it cooled down and October rolled around? Pitching and defense wins postseason baseball. Not a lineup full of HR hitters. Now, Tulo absolutely is a better defensive SS than Reyes. It's an upgrade, but scares me very little
This is commonly cited and pretty much completely wrong. The 2013 Red Sox had average starting pitching and hammered their way to a WS. The 2013 Cardinals were extremely similar. The 2011 Cardinals and Rangers were carried by monstrous offenses.

The Giants had an offense in the top third last year and 7th in 2012.

Of the last 10 teams to appear in the WS, here are their league ranks in wRC:

2010: 13, 14
2011: 3, 5
2012 14, 5
2013: 1, 4
2014: 13, 17

That's an average ranking of 8.9/30. The worst team to appear in the WS in the last five years had no worse than a league average offense.

Offense absolutely matters.

Meanwhile, here are the team rankings by FIP:

2010: 3, 22
2011: 8, 16
2012: 4, 9
2013: 2, 16
2014: 10, 14

Average pitching was rated 10.7/30

Offense matters every bit as much as pitching.
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Old 07-27-2015, 11:39 PM   #2578
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You know what, **** the Blue Jays. Do they have six guys with 10 or more HRs like deez Royals? Hell no.
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Old 07-27-2015, 11:41 PM   #2579
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joe Blanton will probably end up a blue jay
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Old 07-27-2015, 11:43 PM   #2580
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I'll look it up tomorrow when I'm off my phone ... I'm not talking about regular season numbers. When the postseason hits, pitching wins. Even if it's mediocre guys throwing surprising gems. Someone tried telling me the 2005 Sox had average pitching and won a WS the other day. Um, they went 11-1 in the playoffs and won because of absolutely dominant starting pitching.
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