*** Official San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals World Series Game 1 Thread ***

[alnorth]

Final	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
SF	3	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	7	10	1
KC	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	4	1

Giants Lead the Series, 1-0



Win Madison Bumgarner 7IP 1R 1ER 1BB 5K 1HR
Javier Lopez 1IP 0R 0ER 0BB 0K
Hunter Strickland 1IP 0R 0ER 0BB 2K

VS.



Loss "Big Game" James Shields 3IP 5R 5ER 1BB 1K 1HR
Danny Duffy 3IP 2R 2ER 3BB 3K
Tim Collins 2IP 0R 0ER 1BB 2K
Jason Frasor 1IP 0R 0ER 1BB 1K

Home Runs

SF

Hunter Pence - Top 1st 2-run homer to center

KC

Salvador Perez - Bottom 7th solo shot to left

Starting Lineups

SF

1. Gregor Blanco, CF
2. Joe Panik, 2B
3. Buster Posey, C
4. Pablo Sandoval, 3B
5. Hunter Pence, RF
6. Brandon Belt, 1B
7. Mike Morse, DH
8. Travis Ishikawa, LF
8. Juan Perez, ph/LF
9. Brandon Crawford, SS

KC

1. Alcides Escobar, SS
2. Norichika Aoki, RF
3. Lorenzo Cain, CF
4. Eric Hosmer, 1B
5. Billy Butler, DH
5. Josh Willingham, ph/DH
6. Alex Gordon, LF
7. Salvador Perez, C
8. Omar Infante, 2B
9. Mike Moustakas, 3B

[milkman]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Baseball is just random, man.

There have been statistical analyses done of hit sequencing--the probability that you are going to stack hit after hit. You are no more likely to get a hit after someone else has than if you were up there on your own unless the pitcher is struggling.

That's why things like RISP average for teams are so volatile. The Cardinals made the WS in 2013 based largely upon a completely unsustainable average w/ runners in scoring position. The next year those stats dropped precipitously. Did everyone on the team suddenly become worse at hitting the baseball with a man on second? No, they regressed to the mean.

Similarly, you may hear a broadcaster say, "Pitcher X scattered nine hits tonight." He didn't. People fall victim to the gambler's fallacy far too often in baseball. They assume that players are due when they aren't and that they players are white hot when they really aren't.

If you look at Game 4 that the Cardinals played against Kershaw. The 7th inning went "hit, hit, HR." All three of the runs for the game scored in three batters.

Now, if Kershaw throws those same pitches to those batters but does it to Holliday in the first, Peralta in the 4th, and Adams in the 7th, has he executed his pitches any worse? No. Three hittable pitches got hit.

What was the difference? The sequencing.

A lot of Royals fans don't want to believe it, and a lot of Cardinals fans didn't after last year, but hit sequencing is incredibly important and largely a factor of luck. It sucks that individuals don't have more control over it, but baseball is a weird ****ing game.

So, I am not going to try to steal a base in the hopes that random sequencing strikes, right?

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by ROYC75

Al asked me last week to fill in.

I'm getting the table ready for it now.

Cool get it done.

[ROYC75]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

can someone PM ROYC and get him to start the thread

I'd hate for that to be in the wrong hands

Has already been planned since last week.

[TimeForWasp]

Originally Posted by milkman

Because you might get caught.

I see, but would that not be the same as onside kick? Desperation move to try and get you back into the game?

[milkman]

Should get the mods to delete any other attempts at starting a game thread.

[eDave]

Originally Posted by ROYC75

Al asked me last week to fill in.

I'm getting the table ready for it now.

Best substitute.

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

I'll do the game thread.

I'm ok with that.

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by ROYC75

Has already been planned since last week.

Perfect.

You da man!

[Hootie]

we'll be aight everyone!

We're still in the World Series!

We'll get them tomorrow!

[KCCHIEFS27]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Bobby Cox
Tony LaRussa
Tommy LaSorda
Sparky Anderson
Joe Maddon
Bruce Bochy
Buck Showalter

those are some examples of managers who would have also pitched James Shields in game 1 tonight

2011 ALDS Joe Maddon starts Matt Moore in game 1. Wins the game. Shields goes in game 2 and loses. Shields has yet to win a playoff game. Pretty telling evidence. Which is why I said it takes guts to realize Shields does not perform well in the playoffs. But because he was traded for with the mystique of taking this team over the threshold the traditionalist yost thinks he HAS to pitch him.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by milkman

So, I am not going to try to steal a base in the hopes that random sequencing strikes, right?

Yeah, because if you get caught, the odds of you putting together a big inning are almost totally gone. An inning isn't infinite, and you don't get to carry the remainder of the baserunners over. It's not division.

That's why teams don't send a runner from second on a base hit if it's a three run game in the 9th, even if there is a 90% chance he'll score.

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by KCCHIEFS27

2011 ALDS Joe Maddon starts Matt Moore in game 1. Wins the game. Shields goes in game 2 and loses. Shields has yet to win a playoff game. Pretty telling evidence. Which is why I said it takes guts to realize Shields does not perform well in the playoffs. But because he was traded for with the mystique of taking this team over the threshold the traditionalist yost thinks he HAS to pitch him.

omfggggggggggggg

only a god damn moron would blame Ned Yost for pitching JAMES SHIELDS in game 1

omg

omg

omg

I can't take it.

On that note, good night everyone.

[eDave]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

we'll be aight everyone!

We're still in the World Series!

We'll get them tomorrow!

Man, you gotta do me a solid and change out that avatar. Maybe some boobs. Ass is fine too. Hell, I'm fine with a cameltoe. But just "no" on the guy squirting God knows what out of his mam.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by ChiefsNow

Explain to me why not. I don't know shit about baseball. The only reason I am watching it now is because I am hoping the Chiefs get a fire lit under them.
But I was thinking, if your behind , you steal everything you can.

I'll try again, this will be long.

Late in the game when we were on base, Fangraphs had us at about 0.7%, so keep that in mind.

In any case, no matter what we do, steal, not steal, hit, score, homer, fly out, hit an exciting double, whatever the next 2 or 3 batters do, we're probably still losing the game after those 2 or 3 batters do their thing, no matter what.

In that dire situation when you are down by more than a grand slam late in the game, you really only have one chance: you need a big inning.

Stolen bases are pretty much counter to a big inning. People always point to GIDP, but the CS is always very likely and very harmful. To get big innings, you need a lot of hitters to get hits, walks, errors, hit by pitch, homer, over and over again, probably more than 9 times. So we probably needed to bat around and then some.

Doing that is very hard because 3 mistakes and the big inning is done. You can even almost get there, 2 runs in, bases loaded, 2 outs, and woops fly ball to center, tough luck, you almost got there, but nope. Scoring 6 is hard, but if its your only chance, then you have to play to your slim odds.

When you have no choice but to go for the really big inning, then outs are ultra-precious. If you try to steal a base, even a REALLY GREAT runner against a bad pitcher/catcher is going to get caught 10% of the time. In exchange for that 10% of an out, you marginally increase your odds of scoring one run a little bit, maybe 20% or so. If you are thrown out, your slim odds of the big inning are pretty much shot to hell, because again, its hard even when you aren't giving outs away.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by KCCHIEFS27

2011 ALDS Joe Maddon starts Matt Moore in game 1. Wins the game. Shields goes in game 2 and loses. Shields has yet to win a playoff game. Pretty telling evidence. Which is why I said it takes guts to realize Shields does not perform well in the playoffs. But because he was traded for with the mystique of taking this team over the threshold the traditionalist yost thinks he HAS to pitch him.

That's not entirely accurate. Shields won game 3 against the Angels. He's won playoff games. I'm pretty sure he won the only game the Rays won in their WS appearance... didn't allow a run.