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Old 11-02-2015, 05:00 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***



Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:
Spoiler!

Spoiler!

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-17-2015 at 09:49 AM..
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Old 01-06-2016, 12:14 PM   #2251
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Replacing Gordon, Rios, and Zobrist with Dyson, Orlando, and Infante is a huge hit to a third of our lineup.
Rios was pretty terrible, no? I don't see how hard it would be to replace 450 largely ineffective PAs and sub-standard defense. And you didn't have Zobrist while you were pulling away from the rest of the central.

In the end, this was a no-brainer signing for the Royals, don't get me wrong (if nothing else, a healthy Gordon absorbs the 200 very similar ABs you got from Zobrist last year). But I think that only because I think he'll get the 12 WAR needed to 'beat' my calculus.

If he went out there and gave you 9 WAR over the life of this deal, I just don't see how that would be considered a good signing at that point.
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Old 01-06-2016, 12:15 PM   #2252
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Old 01-06-2016, 12:20 PM   #2253
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Infante for Zobrist is the only hit, albeit a big one. We'd have won the division without Zobrist, but we wouldn't have won the WS. Same goes for Cueto frankly.
losing Zobrist really,really hurt

He brought a professionalism to the plate that we really didn't have prior

He was decent enough at 2nd


While Zobrist is older, you can make a case that he was more important than Gordon to the team.

If i had to choose either/or ... i think i might have chosen keeping Zobrist over Gordon. Sacrilege, i know.

didn't keep Zobrist so Gordon is a big get for the heart of the team as much as on the field
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Old 01-06-2016, 12:21 PM   #2254
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They're trying to sign someone so they don't have to put Duffy in the rotation. Ideal goal would be to have Duffy + Zimmer pitch out of the pen and then replace Medlin/Volq next year.
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Old 01-06-2016, 12:25 PM   #2255
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Old 01-06-2016, 12:27 PM   #2256
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Old 01-06-2016, 12:31 PM   #2257
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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/0...n-kennedy.html
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Old 01-06-2016, 12:35 PM   #2258
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I'm more concerned with the pitching staff, namely Herrera and Davis. Lot of miles on those guys the last two seasons going deep into the playoffs. They paid Soria to help shoulder some of that load, so that should help. But he's basically just taking Madson's place. And while Holland wasn't terribly effective, he took on some of those late game innings in 2015 as well.
Hocheaver is back and healthy now. He will eat up innings for the pen.
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Old 01-06-2016, 12:37 PM   #2259
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I like Kennedy a lot as well and yeah, that sparkly K/9 jumps out.

One caveat, though. Some guys will have slightly inflated K/9 figures because they have a tendency to give up a few more baserunners (more PAs against means more chances at a K). It's why K% has become more popular of late - it doesn't 'penalize' guys for getting outs.

Lincecum was the first example of this that I really noticed. In 2012 his K/9 was almost exactly the same as his stellar 2011 season (in fact, it was a little better). His K% dropped by 1.5 points (about 5%); the reason was that he was facing more batters.

Kennedy is a bit like that; his K/9 is elite but his K% is merely good. The explanation for that is pretty straightforward when you see the 1.3 WHIP he had last season. Worse still, when you look at his K% and combine it with his xFIP, you see a very very interesting similar profile in 2015: James Shields.

If you consider the possible effect of a move to the AL and the fact that he won't get to strike out the pitcher anymore (thus inflating that figure a little as well), you suddenly wonder if maybe he wouldn't experience a bit of a reverse Shields in coming to KC. When Shields went KC to SD his K% skyrocketed (an amazing 6 points, damn near a full 1/3 better). I don't think Kennedy's would fall nearly that hard, but if it fell 1/2 that far, 3 points to say 21%, he's around guys like Hector Santiago and Jose Quintana. Probably not coincidentally, his WHIP is right around those guys same figures.

He's still a nice pitcher at that point, but I think there's a little fools gold in his numbers. I was really hoping the Pads wouldn't slap that QO on him. If you're stuck needing to go to $17 million/season on him and giving up a pick, I think it's a pretty tough call.
I wouldn't want to go $17 for him, but the Kazmir deal may have upped the price of poker.
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Old 01-06-2016, 12:39 PM   #2260
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The Royals may also spend some time exploring the possibility of a re-worked deal with backstop Salvador Perez, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports adds on Twitter. We’ve heard chatter before that this could be considered, but the enormously team-friendly deal that he’s bound by also doesn’t leave much motivation for a deal. The large-framed, heavily-used backstop can already be controlled through 2019 (his age-29 season) via a series of options. That makes it seem unlikely, at least from an outside perspective, that he’ll be able to achieve much more than a few guaranteed years — likely at the price of surrendering yet more options at the back end.
I worry about Salvy's health beyond 2019, he is constantly getting beat up.

Love him to death but when does all that damage reach a tipping point?
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Old 01-06-2016, 12:42 PM   #2261
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Look at this gem in the quotes. Another Prison Douche type, only looking at the stats.
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Old 01-06-2016, 12:45 PM   #2262
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I worry about Salvy's health beyond 2019, he is constantly getting beat up.

Love him to death but when does all that damage reach a tipping point?
Depends. Is Yost still manager? If so, Sal might need a wheelchair when he ends this contract.
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Old 01-06-2016, 12:45 PM   #2263
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I worry about Salvy's health beyond 2019, he is constantly getting beat up.

Love him to death but when does all that damage reach a tipping point?


The foul balls right back into his face are worrisome. It happens so often.
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Old 01-06-2016, 12:45 PM   #2264
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I wouldn't want to go $17 for him, but the Kazmir deal may have upped the price of poker.
Yeah, but Leake may have anchored it a little bit as well.

Leake and Kennedy are projected for identical WAR's next season based on Steamer (which is usually pretty decent). Kennedy has those pretty K numbers that will give him value over Leake but Leake's athleticism and some additional durability could serve to even that out. Moreover, Leake's coming into his age 28 season whereas Kennedy is coming into 31.

I'd imagine they end up at similar AAVs, really. If there's enough interest, Kennedy can probably get the 4th year on there. 4/$60 doable for ya?
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Old 01-06-2016, 12:46 PM   #2265
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Would rather have Gallardo than Kennedy, but won't complain too much about either.
If the Royals have to give up their 1st round draft pick, I'd rather have Wei-Yin Chen. In my opinion he is the best of the three.
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