*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***

[duncan_idaho]

Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.

Spoiler!

11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates.
19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system.
20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

I might buy my first jersey.

ChiefsCountry's advice on buying jerseys - retired or dead.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

Moving a team from replacement level to playoff level in a single season very likely would cost $300,000,000 for that season.

I don't disagree - it's why nobody really tries to do it.

What I'm saying is that using a bad approach to set your bar probably isn't the way to go about doing it.

Would you really be happy getting a slightly below average regular for 4 years at $18 million/season? Because that's what the $8.4/share model says is a solid return.

Another way to look at it - I'll truncate it a bit because I did this a couple seasons ago and truly don't remember exactly what the math was. I went through and looked at a fair number of baseball's above average or better teams over about a 5 year span. I took out pitcher WAR and just looked at what the position players on those teams were doing. For average to good teams, a solid threshhold for 'successful' ballclubs was that their position players were giving them about 1 WAR per 275 PAs (PAs also giving a fair proxy for defensive innings).

If you figure 4 healthy seasons yields about 2600 total plate appearances then you need about 9.5 wins over that time period for him to be considered an above average regular for a good team.

Are you content with $18 million for an above average regular on a good team? I'm not so sure I would be.

Like I said, I really think $6 million/share is what teams should be striving for. That gets you 12 WAR over his 3 years which is a pretty reasonable expectation. It also gets you a genuinely good regular over the life of the deal.

It's a far more nuanced approach to it, IMO. It tells you how a team should function if it wants to be a good team, rather than simply a team that wants to be smarter than dipshits like Arte Moreno.

[DJ's left nut]

All that said, I think Gordon beats $6 million/share, to be honest. He's a damn good player and as a lifelong Royal (and the devil you know), Royals fans should be excited as hell to have him back at that figure. Again, congrats to you guys; it's always nice when you see a player play out his career with the same squad, especially when he's a local kid who's gone from the bottom of the heap to the top of the mountain with you.

Really neat story.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I don't disagree - it's why nobody really tries to do it.

What I'm saying is that using a bad approach to set your bar probably isn't the way to go about doing it.

Would you really be happy getting an average regular for 4 years at $18 million/season? Because that's what the $8.4/share model says is a solid return.

Another way to look at it - I'll truncate it a bit because I did this a couple seasons ago and truly don't remember exactly what the math was. I went through and looked at a fair number of baseball's above average or better teams over about a 5 year span. I took out pitcher WAR and just looked at what the position players on those teams were doing. For average to good teams, a solid threshhold for 'successful' ballclubs was that their position players were giving them about 1 WAR per 275 PAs (PAs also giving a fair proxy for defensive innings).

If you figure 4 healthy seasons yields about 2600 total plate appearances then you need about 9.5 wins over that time period for him to be considered an above average regular for a good team.

Are you content with $18 million for an above average regular on a good team? I'm not so sure I would be.

Like I said, I really think $6 million/share is what teams should be striving for. That gets you 12 WAR over his 3 years which is a pretty reasonable expectation. It also gets you a genuinely good regular over the life of the deal.

It's a far more nuanced approach to it, IMO. It tells you how a team should function if it wants to be a good team, rather than simply a team that wants to be smarter than dipshits like Arte Moreno.

It's dependent on the situation. Do I want to pay 8.4/WAR to go from 60 wins to 62 wins? No. I'd pay that and more to go from 87 to 89, though.

[Jerm]

royals are among teams with strong interest in ian kennedy. expected to make push now that gordon is done

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 6, 2016

Hmm....

[suzzer99]

[Al Bundy]

**** YES!

[Sully]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

ChiefsCountry's advice on buying jerseys - retired or dead.

Personalized.

[Sully]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Awesome!

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

Gordo will play LF every day and Salvy will play C almost every day.
That's the platoon.

He's just trolling. Asshat also thinks the Royals should trade Colon to the White Sox.

[alpha_omega]

Congrats to Alex and to the Royals...and to us!

Shouldn't this piece of news be worthy of it's own thread?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

It's dependent on the situation. Do I want to pay 8.4/WAR to go from 60 wins to 62 wins? No. I'd pay that and more to go from 87 to 89, though.

Possibly - but were the Royals at risk of falling below 88 wins?

I guess the marginal win shares argument doesn't really apply unless you think that Starling would've been ready this year or next. You kinda need Dyson to start in RF already, don't you? You'd have been left with some pretty iffy options in the other corner had Gordon not returned.

It's just a long way of saying that the $8.4/share 'blanket' analysis is largely worthless. There's pretty much one situation where I think it makes sense - where a team is sitting right below the fringe of playoff caliber and have an organizational gap in the hole they're filling. At that point you could consider 'market' price a fair barometer. Otherwise there is just way too much stuff to consider.

[Great Expectations]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

ChiefsCountry's advice on buying jerseys - retired or dead.

That is good advice. I'm forever a Gordon fan and with his Homerun in game 1 (amongst a host of other reasons) he will go down as a Royals hero unless something Bill Cosbyesque comes out about him.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by Superturtle

Internet. You always manage to surprise me.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by DeepSouth

So PB, are you willing to give up the Royals 1st pick for Gallardo or Kennedy?

Oh god yes, given this window we are in.