Realistic expectations for Patrick Mahomes

[saphojunkie]

Originally Posted by saphojunkie

I don’t care about his yards. But I will literally put money down he throws over 30 TDS. He’s gonna break the Chiefs record in his first full season.

You seem nice.

[kccrow]

I personally think the kid is going to light it up, but with that is going to come some interceptions.

Give me 4,400 yards, 29 TD and 19 INT.

[Rasputin]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I personally think the kid is going to light it up, but with that is going to come some interceptions.

Give me 4,400 yards, 29 TD and 19 INT.

He didn't throw a lot of intercepted in college so I'm not really expecting a lot of them even his first couple of years however if he does it's a learning experience and coaches have praised the kid for not making same mistakes and I know he can make up for them anyway.


All these years waiting for a draft pick prospect I can't believe he's here and could be better than imagine.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

It’s very hard to peg the potential statistics that he puts up this year. I’m not sure we’ve ever seen a first year QB with a surrounding cast that good.

Casshole in NE probably did.

Originally Posted by KC Tattoo

He didn't throw a lot of intercepted in college so I'm not really expecting a lot of them even his first couple of years however if he does it's a learning experience and coaches have praised the kid for not making same mistakes and I know he can make up for them anyway.


All these years waiting for a draft pick prospect I can't believe he's here and could be better than imagine.

It was Big 12 defense and TT. Different animal. There will be INTs.

[Rasputin]

Originally Posted by KC Tattoo

He didn't throw a lot of intercepted in college so I'm not really expecting a lot of them even his first couple of years however if he does it's a learning experience and coaches have praised the kid for not making same mistakes and I know he can make up for them anyway.


All these years waiting for a draft pick prospect I can't believe he's here and could be better than imagine.

I am proud of this post i was right he wouldn't throw a lot of interceptions. I've said it time and time again he didn't throw a lot in college and he won't in the NFL he steps his level up.

The game looks too easy for the kid.

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I personally think the kid is going to light it up, but with that is going to come some interceptions.

Give me 4,400 yards, 29 TD and 19 INT.

This is lighting it up?

Less than 300 ypg average. 1.8 Td's a game with 1.2 Int average.

Kinda shitty really.

[Shoes]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

This is lighting it up?

Less than 300 ypg average. 1.8 Td's a game with 1.2 Int average.

Kinda shitty really.

4400 yards and 29 TD's would be top 5 in both categories respectively. 19 INT's is quite a bit though.

[Ming the Merciless]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

This is lighting it up?

Less than 300 ypg average. 1.8 Td's a game with 1.2 Int average.

Kinda shitty really.

no., not really

thats a great season for any rookie, probably top 1% to ever play the game

why dont you list all the rookies that have had 4400 yards passing and 30 TD

ill wait here

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

no., not really

thats a great season for any rookie, probably top 1% to ever play the game

why dont you list all the rookies that have had 4400 yards passing and 30 TD

ill wait here

Mahomes is not a rookie.

So you are saying past stats from other QB's can predict what Mahomes will do? Interesting.

I am sure Andy is expecting him to throw at least 2 TDs a game with all of those weapons and a solid running game- do you think they would have moved up in the draft for a QB if they thought he could not even average 2 TD's a game? They just traded a guy that couldn't do it.

[raybec 4]

6700 yds, 59td 3 int, book it! Chiefs go 9-7 and miss the playoffs because they give up a league record 62 field goals in the Pittsburgh game.

[Ming the Merciless]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

Mahomes is not a rookie.

So you are saying past stats from other QB's can predict what Mahomes will do? Interesting.

I am sure Andy is expecting him to throw at least 2 TDs a game

picking some arbitrary number is stupid

if he NEEDS to throw 2 TD a game he will try...but what if we dont need to? I seriously doubt one of the top 10 goals for mahomes is focusing on throwing 2 td per game

its much more fundamental than that - reads, audibles, mastering the playbook under stress, technical / mechanical improvements etc...


sure, he might throw 2 TD a game and break the KC record for TD's by a QB.

hell if he doesnt do it this year i bet he will do it at some point...but I dont think youre correct in saying that is expected of him

edit: and fine he has played in 1 game...so he isnt a rookie .but this is his 1st season as the starter......so show me this list of guys who have played in 1 game or less and then get 4400 yards in their 1st season as starter...is it a pretty long list of QB's? I heard marino did it in 1984 ...but he started 10 games the year prior

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

This is lighting it up?

Less than 300 ypg average. 1.8 Td's a game with 1.2 Int average.

Kinda shitty really.

Umm... I shouldn't even respond to this but I will...

4400 yards would have put him 4th in the NFL in 2017.
29 TD's would have tied him for 4th in the NFL in 2017.
I feel like I"m going full homer just by thinking he will get anywhere near those numbers, when history says it's highly unlikely.

19 INTs are only 4 more than Peyton Manning threw in his 2nd season and 9 less than he threw his rookie year. Dan Marino, even in his epic 2nd season, threw 17 picks. Drew Brees, who played in only 1 game as a rookie as well, threw 16 picks. The list goes on.

Point is, even some of the better QBs of the past 20 years have had to learn the hard way. This kid is a risk taker and he's likely going to throw quite a few picks his first year out the gate.

If I were looking more at history and less at how I feel about this kid's abilities, I'd probably have him around 3500 yards, 20 tds and 17 ints as a best-case scenario. I chose instead to go full homer.

If you're expecting some crazy shit like 4700 yards, 35 tds and 10 ints in year 1, I think you ought to temper your expectations.

[Coogs]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Umm... I shouldn't even respond to this but I will...

4400 yards would have put him 4th in the NFL in 2017.
29 TD's would have tied him for 4th in the NFL in 2017.
I feel like I"m going full homer just by thinking he will get anywhere near those numbers, when history says it's highly unlikely.

19 INTs are only 4 more than Peyton Manning threw in his 2nd season and 9 less than he threw his rookie year. Dan Marino, even in his epic 2nd season, threw 17 picks. Drew Brees, who played in only 1 game as a rookie as well, threw 16 picks. The list goes on.

Point is, even some of the better QBs of the past 20 years have had to learn the hard way. This kid is a risk taker and he's likely going to throw quite a few picks his first year out the gate.

If I were looking more at history and less at how I feel about this kid's abilities, I'd probably have him around 3500 yards, 20 tds and 17 ints as a best-case scenario. I chose instead to go full homer.

If you're expecting some crazy shit like 4700 yards, 35 tds and 10 ints in year 1, I think you ought to temper your expectations.

The thing is though that he has already proven he can throw an Interception and still win. That's huge. Even had us out to a 14 point lead before that was given away by Bray.

If Smith turned it over... even once... there was a better than 50% chance we were going to lose. I posted the numbers on it once, so I know that is correct.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Coogs

The thing is though that he has already proven he can throw an Interception and still win. That's huge. Even had us out to a 14 point lead before that was given away by Bray.

If Smith turned it over... even once... there was a better than 50% chance we were going to lose. I posted the numbers on it once, so I know that is correct.

Brett Favre won a lot of games throwing a lot of interceptions so I'm not overly concerned. What I was trying to relay to halfwit was that he should probably expect them to come in a QB's first season playing. I certainly don't expect 10 or fewer interceptions from a guy that plays like Mahomes plays.

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Umm... I shouldn't even respond to this but I will...

4400 yards would have put him 4th in the NFL in 2017.
29 TD's would have tied him for 4th in the NFL in 2017.
I feel like I"m going full homer just by thinking he will get anywhere near those numbers, when history says it's highly unlikely.

19 INTs are only 4 more than Peyton Manning threw in his 2nd season and 9 less than he threw his rookie year. Dan Marino, even in his epic 2nd season, threw 17 picks. Drew Brees, who played in only 1 game as a rookie as well, threw 16 picks. The list goes on.

Point is, even some of the better QBs of the past 20 years have had to learn the hard way. This kid is a risk taker and he's likely going to throw quite a few picks his first year out the gate.

If I were looking more at history and less at how I feel about this kid's abilities, I'd probably have him around 3500 yards, 20 tds and 17 ints as a best-case scenario. I chose instead to go full homer.

If you're expecting some crazy shit like 4700 yards, 35 tds and 10 ints in year 1, I think you ought to temper your expectations.

Great post. I understand what you are saying- and I agree. If Mahomes wins 10 games with that tough schedule, puts up 4k in yards and 30 Td's, we win the West again and at least a playoff game- that would be an amazing 2nd year for him. Wins are the best stat.

With that said- I still have this feeling that Mahomes is going blow things up.

I think the standard that we judge QB's now is going to change with these young guns coming in and more wide-open offenses. A 300-yard game will become the average and a 400-yard game will be the measuring stick of a great game.

All signs indicate that Reid is going to come out with something different the NFL has not seen before. It will take teams a while to adjust. Unless I am completely missing something with the signing of Sammy- this offense will be the best in Chiefs history (at least on paper). This is why I said less than 2 TD's a game seemed low. We saw Watson put up eye-popping numbers in Houston last year- I think Mahomes will so the same.

I am going on Record with these numbers:

31.33 completions per game X 16 games= 501.28 X 9.2 per attempt= 4612 Total passing yards.

63% completion on 49.73 attempts per game. 2.3 TD's per game X 16= 36.8 rounded up to 37 Total passing TD's

27 yards per game rushing X 16 games = 432 Total Rushing Yards

.04 Rushing TD's per game X 16 games= 4 Rushing TD's

.90 INTs per game X 16 = 14.5 rounded up to 15 INTs.