Official 2017 STL Cardinals Thread

[BigRedChief]

My as well get it started. Here's my "Matheny" lineup.....

Fowler CF
Diaz SS
Carpenter 1B
Piscotty RF
Grichuk LF
Molina C
Peralta 3B
Wong 2B
Pitcher

My "Matheny" Starting rotation

Martinez
Reyes
Wainwright
Lynn
Leake

['Hamas' Jenkins]

I don't know why anyone who watched the Cardinals play the Dodgers in the '13 or '14 playoffs would want anything to do with Adrian Gonzalez that doesn't involve him getting thrown into a meat grinder. I loathe that mother****er.

[George Liquor]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I don't know why anyone who watched the Cardinals play the Dodgers in the '13 or '14 playoffs would want anything to do with Adrian Gonzalez that doesn't involve him getting thrown into a meat grinder. I loathe that mother****er.

He is a certified cock-sucker on the level of David Ortiz.

[DJ's left nut]

Dude, BRC, you're just flat ****ing wrong about Gyorko. Trying to bench him for a flash in the pan like Dejong is bad enough but saying we should go get that washed up pile of shit, Adrian Gonzalez because we so desperately need to get him off the field...Jesus, how much baseball do you actually watch?

Gyorko was the 2nd best all-around player on the team last year and us a genuinely good starter. If we add a SS, Dejong can sit because Gyorko is simply a better player than him. And Gonzalez isn't worth the roster spot. I'd play Luke Voit over him.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Dude, BRC, you're just flat ****ing wrong about Gyorko. Trying to bench him for a flash in the pan like Dejong is bad enough but saying we should go get that washed up pile of shit, Adrian Gonzalez because we so desperately need to get him off the field...Jesus, how much baseball do you actually watch?

Gyorko was the 2nd best all-around player on the team last year and us a genuinely good starter. If we add a SS, Dejong can sit because Gyorko is simply a better player than him. And Gonzalez isn't worth the roster spot. I'd play Luke Voit over him.

I don't watch much baseball but probably 150 Cardinals games a year and whoever they are playing.

I guess I've seen Gyrko strike out or fail way too many times when it counts and then hit home runs when it didn't matter.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I don't watch much baseball but probably 150 Cardinals games a year and whoever they are playing.

I guess I've seen Gyrko strike out or fail way too many times when it counts and then hit home runs when it didn't matter.

And yet Dejong doesn't bother you?

That dude is going to bomb HARD. We'll be trading him to Toronto for some shit outfielder in A ball about 12 months from now.

If they could sell high on him, they'd be wise to do so. He has genuinely no idea what he should and should not be swinging at. His strike zone judgment is probable worse than Grichuk's.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

And yet Dejong doesn't bother you?

That dude is going to bomb HARD. We'll be trading him to Toronto for some shit outfielder in A ball about 12 months from now.

If they could sell high on him, they'd be wise to do so. He has genuinely no idea what he should and should not be swinging at. His strike zone judgment is probable worse than Grichuk's.

i have as much confidence in him as I had in Diaz's long term prospects, Matheny's bullpen management and Gyrko to have a game winning hit.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

i have as much confidence in him as I had in Diaz's long term prospects, Matheny's bullpen management and Gyrko to have a game winning hit.

Gyorko was 3rd on the Cardinals in game winning rbi's (behind Molina and Fowler) and tied for 25th in all of MLB...who was he tied with?

Marcell Ozuna

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by VAChief

Gyorko was 3rd on the Cardinals in game winning rbi's (behind Molina and Fowler) and tied for 25th in all of MLB...who was he tied with?

Marcell Ozuna

Being 3rd on a team that sucked doesn't impress me.

Obviously I'm not deep into the stats of the game. I'm usually learning or designing something new in my career while watching the game. But, I've been watching Cardinals baseball for 50+ years.

I'm usually positive in this thread, so I dont give the love to Gyrko. Don't we all have players we dont like that most others love?

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Being 3rd on a team that sucked doesn't impress me.

Obviously I'm not deep into the stats of the game. I'm usually learning or designing something new in my career while watching the game. But, I've been watching Cardinals baseball for 50+ years.

I'm usually positive in this thread, so I dont give the love to Gyrko. Don't we all have players we dont like that most others love?

No worries, GWRBI stats can be misleading. Just wanted to point out that he didn't exactly suck there. Top 25 for position players in any category though is roughly the top 5-6%.

As I mentioned earlier, when you look closely at his progress from last year, the most hopeful stats were his defensive numbers at 3B and his significant uptick in OBP. His strikeouts are still big, but nothing that worries you if he continues to get on base at .340 or higher.

I'm not sure we can get stats at what our numbers were with him at 3B, DeJong at SS, Wong and Carpenter, but my guess is they are significantly better than when we we started the year with Peralta, Diaz and a mixture of Gyorko, Wong, DeJong at 2B.

We were mixing and matching with some horrible combinations. DeJong is the one to watch for regression. I personally have more optimism for him than DJ, but he is right that he could be in for a fall. He ended up at .325 OBP, and I would like to see that number climb this season. He is a bright guy, which is the main reason I give him a shot to actually adapt his approach, but he will need to adapt or he will regress, because the opposition will certainly adapt to what worked for him.

One other thing to factor in is whether Ozuna holds true to form from last season. If he does, he will add something we didn't have last year. While I am higher on Gyorko than some, he isn't a 4 hole hitter. Neither was Fowler, DeJong, Grichuk, etc. You put Gyorko everyday at 3b, hit him 5th or 6th and I bet he would hold his numbers if not better them.

[DJ's left nut]

DeJong's BA was so BABIP fueled that his shot at sustaining his performance last year is virtually non-existent. Give him a .300 BABIP last year and he's a .255 hitter with an OBP below .300. Worse still, with his batted ball profile and hard hit rate, a 19.8 HR/FB ratio is also damn near impossible for him to repeat. He's likely to settle in around 15%, which is still well above average but more where guys like Machado/Arenado live than true sluggers (and DeJong is not that).

So give him 15% instead and he loses 6 HRs which then become balls in play so take away another 4 hits, presuming a normal BABIP on those. Now he's hitting around .245 and his ISO falls about 40 points.

So we're looking at a .245/.290/.450 player at that point who strikes out about 170 times.

That's effectively Hunter Renfroe's offensive profile with defense that can be best described as adequate. So barring continued batted ball luck and/or fly ball luck, you're looking at a 1 win player; maybe 1.5. In other words, a bench player. That's exactly where he should be.

So roughly as valuable as Jordy Mercer. Take a look at Trevor Story's disastrous (and incredibly predictable) 2017 and you'll get a pretty good idea of what we're likely to see with Paul DeJong absent some MAJOR changes in his approach. Frankly, I don't think this staff is capable of effectuating positive changes for a group of 8 year old girls, let alone someone that's made it to the majors by swinging from his heels.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

DeJong's BA was so BABIP fueled that his shot at sustaining his performance last year is virtually non-existent. Give him a .300 BABIP last year and he's a .255 hitter with an OBP below .300. Worse still, with his batted ball profile and hard hit rate, a 19.8 HR/FB ratio is also damn near impossible for him to repeat. He's likely to settle in around 15%, which is still well above average but more where guys like Machado/Arenado live than true sluggers (and DeJong is not that).

So give him 15% instead and he loses 6 HRs which then become balls in play so take away another 4 hits, presuming a normal BABIP on those. Now he's hitting around .245 and his ISO falls about 40 points.

So we're looking at a .245/.290/.450 player at that point who strikes out about 170 times.

That's effectively Hunter Renfroe's offensive profile with defense that can be best described as adequate. So barring continued batted ball luck and/or fly ball luck, you're looking at a 1 win player; maybe 1.5. In other words, a bench player. That's exactly where he should be.

So roughly as valuable as Jordy Mercer. Take a look at Trevor Story's disastrous (and incredibly predictable) 2017 and you'll get a pretty good idea of what we're likely to see with Paul DeJong absent some MAJOR changes in his approach. Frankly, I don't think this staff is capable of effectuating positive changes for a group of 8 year old girls, let alone someone that's made it to the majors by swinging from his heels.

He definitely worries me more than anyone else on our team regarding what we can expect from him offensively. I would be more worried if he was our 3B option. If we do miraculously get Machado, he goes to SS and Gyorko should play 3B with DeJong our sub at all three positions.

[VAChief]

Last year we had over 1100 at bats with guys in our everyday lineup, often hitting in top 6 in the order with the following OPS numbers (Peralta .462, Diaz .682, Piscotty .708, Adams .735, and Grichuk .758).

Conversely this year, we have 6 players returning who finished in the top 60 with OPS numbers over .800 (with at least 400 at bats (not including Martinez .857 with over 300 at bats), (2 in the top 20, Pham .931 and Ozuna .924). Obviously no elite thumpers, but there were only 5 players with OPS numbers at 1.000 (Trout, Judge, Votto, Stanton and Blackmon).

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by VAChief

He definitely worries me more than anyone else on our team regarding what we can expect from him offensively. I would be more worried if he was our 3B option. If we do miraculously get Machado, he goes to SS and Gyorko should play 3B with DeJong our sub at all three positions.

Exactly.

DeJong is an obvious fit for the long-term Chris Taylor super-sub role that the Cardinals seem hell bent on trying to cram Matt Carpenter into (who completely lacks the athleticism to manage that worth a damn).

You could put DeJong at any IF position and probably either of the corner OF posititions for a handful of games and be okay there. And you can spot-start him against lefthanders and righties that lack a high octane fastball or a dynamic breaking ball (i.e. most 4th and 5th starters) and still get some big hits from him.

DeJong is simply playing above his station at SS, IMO. He's not a regular. I've been wrong before but the hardest part about finding players to compare him to is the fact that players that have the discipline issues he has simply don't play that much. They're selectively deployed and it keeps anyone from finding a real baseline for them.

There's a reason for the lack of comps for DeJong.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

DeJong's BA was so BABIP fueled that his shot at sustaining his performance last year is virtually non-existent. Give him a .300 BABIP last year and he's a .255 hitter with an OBP below .300. Worse still, with his batted ball profile and hard hit rate, a 19.8 HR/FB ratio is also damn near impossible for him to repeat. He's likely to settle in around 15%, which is still well above average but more where guys like Machado/Arenado live than true sluggers (and DeJong is not that).

So give him 15% instead and he loses 6 HRs which then become balls in play so take away another 4 hits, presuming a normal BABIP on those. Now he's hitting around .245 and his ISO falls about 40 points.

So we're looking at a .245/.290/.450 player at that point who strikes out about 170 times.

That's effectively Hunter Renfroe's offensive profile with defense that can be best described as adequate. So barring continued batted ball luck and/or fly ball luck, you're looking at a 1 win player; maybe 1.5. In other words, a bench player. That's exactly where he should be.

So roughly as valuable as Jordy Mercer. Take a look at Trevor Story's disastrous (and incredibly predictable) 2017 and you'll get a pretty good idea of what we're likely to see with Paul DeJong absent some MAJOR changes in his approach. Frankly, I don't think this staff is capable of effectuating positive changes for a group of 8 year old girls, let alone someone that's made it to the majors by swinging from his heels.

Fangraphs has him regressing somewhat to .310 BABIP. With a line of .261 batting average, .308 OBP, .462 slugging (.770 OPS) with 26 hrs and 85 rbi (152 strike outs).

I think we would have to take that right now if he is batting 6th or lower in the lineup (providing he gives at least average defense).

Looking at his minor league stats, he has always had a high BABIP (.335, .318, and .336). Last year's .349, might not be as far out of line as first glance.

[VAChief]

That said, I would love to have a defensive wizard there who could get on base at the bottom of or our order with Wong and really help solidify our up the middle defense (something that is way undervalued now).