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Old 04-03-2016, 09:48 AM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2016 Royals Repository, Version 1 ***



And so it begins: The Royals' second straight attempt to repeat as AL Champions, and first attempt to repeat as World Series champions.

In this thread, we'll track all non-gameday action. Roster moves, prospect news, etc.

I'll start the thread as usual, with division rivals thoughts. I still like KC to repeat as AL Central champs. Here's how I see the rest of it shaking out:

2) Indians - they have the pitching (and seem to have at least semi-Kluber-ed Cody Anderson, who added 3 mph to his fastball in the offseason). Will the offense hold up? I think this is a team that ends up looking a lot like the 2014 Royals. Francisco Lindor will solidify their IF defense over the full season, and is a help with the bat. I think this club is still a year away from really breaking through - the offense still has a lot of question marks - but I like them to nab a wildcard spot.

Key Player(s): Michael Brantley. When Brantley returns - and how he hits when he does - will be critical to the Indians' ability to be good enough on offense.

Jason Kipnis. Kipnis has been an enigmatic offensive performer for the past several years. If he finally has a good offensive campaign from start to finish, Cleveland could make real noise.

Something of interest to me: For all the acclaim the Twins' farm system gets, I look at the Indians young players, and would much rather have them. Brad Zimmer is going to be a very good all-around CF. Clint Frazier has huge power potential and should arrive soon (2017). Lindor is a young stud.

3) Tigers - Old and dependent on a few stars. If Verlander and Sanchez are healthy and effective, they will be playoff contenders. I'm sure JD Martinez will continue to hit roid-aided bombs. I'm also pretty sure Victor Martinez's days as a huge power threat are gone.

Key player: Justin Verlander. Detroit people would have you believe he figured out how to succeed without his big fastball in September of last year. If that's true, and he returns to dominant form, Detroit will likely contend again.

Something of interest to me: Will Jose Iglesias stay healthy and not try to kill teammates in the dugout? His defense makes the whole group much better.

4) Twins - They won't lead the division or be in playoff contention for as long this year, but Minnesota will avoid the cellar.

Key Player: Miguel Sano. Huge power, huge K rate. Can he continue to drive the ball and be a plus offensive player? Probably needs to cut that 35 percent K percentage to do so.

Something of interest to me: Will teams challenge Sano inside with hard stuff? Working away, away, just lets his power play up. Also - will Mike Berardino continue to be the biggest beat writer homer in MLB?

5) White Sox - still managed by a shitty manager who can't control his clubhouse (The blame for the LaRoche thing really should fall on him, not the GM). Still have a shitty overall defense and a lot of douchebags on the team. They will once again look better on paper than they actually perform.

Key player: Carlos Rodon. The White Sox need Rodon to take a big step forward to make an actual move this season. He's got the talent...

And, as always, here are the prospects.

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:
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Spoiler!
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Old 06-12-2016, 09:12 PM   #1846
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I guess. There's only two years crossover with Gordon's contract. Even if they signed Gordon again, he won't be making $18M a year. Plus there'll be money freed up if our infield is Cuthbert/Mondesi/2B. I think the bigger issue is another rich team coming in and driving up the price out of our range.
Anyone and everyone of consequence is set to be free after the 2017 season.

Regardless of what anyone says, the Royals traded five pitchers last year in pursuit of a title. They didn't know if it would happen or not but fortunately, it did.

Those trades in no way guaranteed that they'd return to the playoffs in 2016 or 2017, let alone the World Series.

2020 is a long time from now and Fox isn't likely to give away free money.
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Old 06-12-2016, 09:43 PM   #1847
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Wow, so much to catch up on.

Re: Trading Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, Davis, Escobar, Duffy or any other free agent following 2017...That's only going to happen if they're way out of it at the break next year.

They're going to make a concerted effort to keep Hosmer in KC. It probably won't be enough, but they're going to try for him. They do have, on their side, his eye towards his legacy (in baseball and towards the Royals). He sees the benefits beyond dollar signs of staying put. If he signs, it will be a Gordon-type situation where he takes a competitive but slightly lesser offer. But it's not out of the question.

Yes, $25 million seems like a safe bet for Hosmer on the open market. But with the Giants tied long-term to Belt, the Angels having no spending money, the Orioles making a huge long-term commitment to Chris Davis (and with a superior player in Machado looming as a free agent), the Yankees having a couple of great young options coming through their farm system, the number of big money suitors for a 1b may be less than people would think.

KC will also likely have low-cost options at SS, 2B, and possibly 3b to balance that big contract for Hosmer out.

If they find an OF and SP through the farm by the end of next season, that helps as well.

If this team can find a way to get through the rest of this tough stretch at or slightly above .500, I like its chances in a stretch drive as they get healthier across the board.


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Old 06-12-2016, 09:46 PM   #1848
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But the rotation though...
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Old 06-12-2016, 09:49 PM   #1849
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The legacy thing is a whole other part of it, but that plays into it too. It just makes sense. We have other infielders. I think Cuthbert and Mondesi will become solid players. Dozier is on the way. Who knows if we find another guy like Merrifield. Hosmer has turned into the leader of this team. Replacing Gordon's contract with Hosmer's might cost us $7-8 million more a year, but much of that should be offset by TV money... especially if the Royals continue to have the best ratings in baseball. They can afford one contract like that, and at this point Hosmer should be that guy.
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Old 06-12-2016, 09:54 PM   #1850
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Wow, so much to catch up on.

Re: Trading Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, Davis, Escobar, Duffy or any other free agent following 2017...That's only going to happen if they're way out of it at the break next year.
The Royals currently have three legit starters, if you count Duffy, who's unproven long term and Ventura, who's a hothead. As far as I can tell, there's not much, if any, relief coming from AAA or AA in the next year.

Payroll is maxed out.

Wouldn't it be an absolute goldmine stroke of luck for the Royals to even be in the hunt a year from now?

Personally, I'm all good with trading assets for players and rebuilding quickly but why is this on the back burner instead of the front burner?

Is this because Ned decided to come back?
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Old 06-12-2016, 09:56 PM   #1851
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The legacy thing is a whole other part of it, but that plays into it too. It just makes sense. We have other infielders. I think Cuthbert and Mondesi will become solid players. Dozier is on the way. Who knows if we find another guy like Merrifield. Hosmer has turned into the leader of this team. Replacing Gordon's contract with Hosmer's might cost us $7-8 million more a year, but much of that should be offset by TV money... especially if the Royals continue to have the best ratings in baseball. They can afford one contract like that, and at this point Hosmer should be that guy.
The TV contract is what it is until 2020.

It sucks and anyone associated with it should have been fired a long time ago.
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Old 06-12-2016, 10:08 PM   #1852
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The TV contract is what it is until 2020.

It sucks and anyone associated with it should have been fired a long time ago.
For the one millionth time, I know how TV contracts work.

That's only two years of what will probably be a 6 or 7 year contract for Hosmer.

And as much as you want to say otherwise, FOX negotiated both St. Louis' and Arizona's new contracts before the previous one expired. This is not a debatable point. It happened. Will they do that for the Royals? I have zero idea... but painting it as completely impossible is false too.
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Old 06-12-2016, 10:14 PM   #1853
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For the one millionth time, I know how TV contracts work.

That's only two years of what will probably be a 6 or 7 year contract for Hosmer.

And as much as you want to say otherwise, FOX negotiated both St. Louis' and Arizona's new contracts before the previous one expired. This is not a debatable point. It happened. Will they do that for the Royals? I have zero idea... but painting it as completely impossible is false too.
I don't think there's any reason for Fox or any other network to give the Royals $100 million per year in advance of their contract expiring.

Call me cynical.
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Old 06-13-2016, 01:51 AM   #1854
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But oh hai, World Series

Which no one outside of KC remembers.
You realize that Championships are typically the point of rooting for sports teams, right?

I don't give a **** if zero people outside of KC know about 2015. The Royals did what I thought they would never do in my lifetime. They gave this city a title.

We traded five pitchers. I would have given more. It's the nature of the beast when rooting for a small market team. We're not the Dodgers. We're going to be able to sign the Greinke's or the Cueto's. We have to do what we can with the tools we have.

And those trades? They netted us a second basemen who played out of his mind in October and a starter who pitched two two hitters in the postseason. We likely don't win a championship without them.

Your line of reasoning isn't uncommon. I see this all over Facebook (usually from people broken up that we lost Finny), but I swear it's a symptom of rooting for a perrienial loser. The "it's always next year" mindset has made people forget what we're hoping to accomplish "next year." But you know, Next year is here. We won the damn thing, and until late October, we are the kings of Major League Baseball.

Ask the Cubs, Indians, Rockies, or any fanbase who hasn't won it all. I have a feeling they would trade with us in a heartbeat.

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Old 06-13-2016, 05:03 AM   #1855
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The Royals currently have three legit starters, if you count Duffy, who's unproven long term and Ventura, who's a hothead. As far as I can tell, there's not much, if any, relief coming from AAA or AA in the next year.

Payroll is maxed out.

Wouldn't it be an absolute goldmine stroke of luck for the Royals to even be in the hunt a year from now?

Personally, I'm all good with trading assets for players and rebuilding quickly but why is this on the back burner instead of the front burner?

Is this because Ned decided to come back?
They get $20 mil off the books after this season, assuming they decline the options on Morales and Medlen. Davis, Volquez, Escobar and Hochevar also have options after this year but I am assuming those will be picked up.

They only have $73.5 mil committed in 2018, assuming that they decline options on Infante and Young. There's A LOT of spots to fill but 1B is one of them.

They have 6 players currently signed for the 2018 team, along with the younger guys (Cuthbert, Merrifield, etc.) that won't be free agents yet and are on those 1 year deals.
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Old 06-13-2016, 06:42 AM   #1856
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The Royals currently have three legit starters, if you count Duffy, who's unproven long term and Ventura, who's a hothead. As far as I can tell, there's not much, if any, relief coming from AAA or AA in the next year.

Payroll is maxed out.

Wouldn't it be an absolute goldmine stroke of luck for the Royals to even be in the hunt a year from now?

Personally, I'm all good with trading assets for players and rebuilding quickly but why is this on the back burner instead of the front burner?

Is this because Ned decided to come back?

You're going to get the rebuild/retool you want, just in 2018.

They won't retool for 2017 because KC returns all key position players next year with the exception of Morales, whose mutual option will be declined by the team, and it returns most of the bullpen (Hochevar likely leaves as a FA).

The rotation will definitely be a question mark. What Duffy and Ventura do the rest of the year certainly will be a factor in how big a question mark it will be. They both have immense talent.

Ian Kennedy's HR trouble on the road is a warning sign, but he will be a piece of that rotation.

Jason Vargas will be back from his Tommy John (18 mo. Removed) and an option. Mike Minor also will be in the mix.

They'll be shopping for at least one SP in free agency, in all likelihood. And they'll find a way to make that work, with the salary coming off the books (which is only a slight gain by the time you include salary increases from contracts and arbitration) and a potential increase. I'll believe it's maxed out when they stop adding big salary to the payroll in the offseason. Has happened for many years in a row, and all indications are that they'll continue to do so to max out their ability to contend in this window.


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Old 06-13-2016, 06:45 AM   #1857
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They get $20 mil off the books after this season, assuming they decline the options on Morales and Medlen. Davis, Volquez, Escobar and Hochevar also have options after this year but I am assuming those will be picked up.



They only have $73.5 mil committed in 2018, assuming that they decline options on Infante and Young. There's A LOT of spots to fill but 1B is one of them.



They have 6 players currently signed for the 2018 team, along with the younger guys (Cuthbert, Merrifield, etc.) that won't be free agents yet and are on those 1 year deals.

Volquez and Hochevar are also on mutual options, if I recall correctly, so those are unlikely to be engaged.


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Old 06-13-2016, 07:07 AM   #1858
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Volquez and Hochevar are also on mutual options, if I recall correctly, so those are unlikely to be engaged.

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You're correct. They're mutual options so there's a good chance they decline them. That's another $17 mil off the books in 2017 if they decline their options.
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Old 06-13-2016, 09:31 AM   #1859
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Your line of reasoning isn't uncommon. I see this all over Facebook (usually from people broken up that we lost Finny), but I swear it's a symptom of rooting for a perrienial loser. The "it's always next year" mindset has made people forget what we're hoping to accomplish "next year." But you know, Next year is here. We won the damn thing, and until late October, we are the kings of Major League Baseball.
I was fervently against the Cueto trade last year, so my opinion isn't a symptom of rooting for a perennial loser. The Zobrist trade didn't bother me as much but as you've said, the Royals won the WS and no one can take that from them.

But anyone could see that their pitching assets would be depleted from those trades, regardless of where they were projected in the majors. The Royals are a small market team with limited resources and a terrible TV contract. Expecting them to compete for a WS for the third straight year with a patchwork pitching staff is tenuous at best.
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Old 06-13-2016, 09:37 AM   #1860
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Jason Vargas will be back from his Tommy John (18 mo. Removed) and an option.
What would be a realistic expectation of a 34 year pitcher coming off UCL surgery? 80% of his former self? Higher?
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