*** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by milkman

I don't know about that 5% number.

Here's what I do know.

The Royals are now 0-36 when trailing going into the 8th inning.

An ace who pitches 6 or 7 games in the postseason, who doesn't allow teams to get leads, seems like something that increases this team's chance by a larger percentage than 5.

Cueto has 3 postseason starts, none of which were good and 1 where he left after the first batter. He's a massive upgrade but he isn't going to double our odds or anything drastic

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by alnorth

hah, jinx. Right after I posted that, Andy tweeted this

Would make sense for Finnegan to be included in Cueto deal. His value may never be higher, as plenty within KC org. see him as a reliever.

— Andy McCullough (@McCulloughStar) July 26, 2015

This may be one of those things where the Royals don't think he can start and teams outside KC think we're crazy and should be starting him. We very well could be wrong about him, but if he's valued higher outside KC, we gotta move him.

Also a victim of circumstance. We're in win mode. His value to us right now is mid relief. So, they're prioritizing his value with being up here and available because winning a pennant supercedes his developing as a starter at AA ball.

[Sure-Oz]

@BooneOWH: Finnegan didn't say anything while I was in the clubhouse. Lamb was openly talking about his name being mentioned with the potential trade.

[tk13]

There may not be a deal. There may be a deal agreed upon, and the Reds are checking out the medicals again. If that's what is happening, neither side is going to say anything. If they announced it then brought it back because of medical reasons they'd look horrible.

[milkman]

As a side bit of news, Greinke scoreless inning streak has come to an end.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Ok, even if its 10%, then its still a small amt. Just watch the Vegas odds IMMEDIATELY before and after the trade and u will see.

What are they at right now? 9:2?

[C3HIEF3S]

This guy covers the Storm Chasers:

Finnegan didn't say anything while I was in the clubhouse. Lamb was openly talking about his name being mentioned with the potential trade.

— Tony Boone (@BooneOWH) July 26, 2015

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by tk13

There may not be a deal. There may be a deal agreed upon, and the Reds are checking out the medicals again. If that's what is happening, neither side is going to say anything. If they announced it then brought it back because of medical reasons they'd look horrible.

Mike Shanarat to the Chiefs......

[Sure-Oz]

@ihateprospects: Managers and execs can't publicly confirm trade details on the record until they're done. It means nothing.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by milkman

I don't know about that 5% number.

Here's what I do know.

The Royals are now 0-36 when trailing going into the 8th inning.

An ace who pitches 6 or 7 games in the postseason, who doesn't allow teams to get leads, seems like something that increases this team's chance by a larger percentage than 5.

You need to consider that there's a small chance we don't make the playoffs, and also a small chance that we don't win the division and have to play the wild card game, and if we get to the LDS round, there are 3 other very good teams on our side of the bracket and then the NL champion. That seems super-obvious and pointless to say, but it really makes a huge difference to our odds, and we're not going to be some kind of enormous 5 to 1 favorite in every series.

Right now the most favorable monte carlo simulations have us at about 15% to win the world series, which is also what the Vegas odds are implying. I don't think Cueto pushes us much past 20%.

That said, I think those extra few points are worth it because the value of winning the world series is so incredibly enormous that it probably skews the cost/benefit analysis towards clawing for those extra few percentage points.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by alnorth

He's probably right, but it boils down to how highly we should value that extra 5%. Its not a few points to win a few games that no one will remember, its a few points for a world championship that will be treasured forever.

This is absolutely about postseason starts and maybe to a lesser degree playoff seeding. Playoff baseball is such a different animal than the grueling long season.

Of course, I know that you know that.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Mike Shanarat to the Chiefs......

Not nearly the same thing, and you know it. Don't be an idiot Pete. I don't know if a deal will get done. But the Reds had two starters warming up last night, and Cueto openly said to the press he was told he's gone. So they are obviously talking about it. If it doesn't happen, it doesn't happen, but it's not someone throwing crap against the wall either.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Cueto has 3 postseason starts, none of which were good and 1 where he left after the first batter. He's a massive upgrade but he isn't going to double our odds or anything drastic

I would call it one good start (not great because he only went 5),one start in which he was hurt, and one terrible start.

Either way, not enough to tell us anything.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by alnorth

You need to consider that there's a small chance we don't make the playoffs, and also a small chance that we don't win the division and have to play the wild card game, and if we get to the LDS round, there are 3 other very good teams on our side of the bracket and then the NL champion. That seems super-obvious and pointless to say, but it really makes a huge difference to our odds, and we're not going to be some kind of enormous 5 to 1 favorite in every series.

Right now the most favorable monte carlo simulations have us at about 15% to win the world series, which is also what the Vegas odds are implying. I don't think Cueto pushes us much past 20%.

That said, I think those extra few points are worth it because the value of winning the world series is so incredibly enormous that it probably skews the cost/benefit analysis towards clawing for those extra few percentage points.

I get it.

But I have to think that an ace improves the odds more than that because, as it's been pointed out numerous times by tk13, teams without an ace simply don't win.

[MahiMike]

I'm seeing multiple sites reporting Cueto is a done deal. So glad to see the Royals striking when the iron is hot.