*** Official 2015 Royals Repository ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer

I can't wait for this season to start. The AL Central should be a very entertaining race. I'll give brief thoughts on each team the Royals must contend with to make it back to the postseason - strengths and weaknesses.

Detroit Tigers:
Strength: The offense is still full of powerful hitters, and Miguel Cabrera may be healthier.
Weakness: Rotation is questionable after Price and Sanchez, bullpen continues to be horrible.

Cleveland Indians:
Strength: Great manager and a deep, versatile lineup.
Weakness: The rotation is a question mark past Corey Kluber, and even he has a few questions about him.

Chicago White Sox:
Strength: 1-2-3 combo of Sale, Quintana and Samardzija is pretty formidable. Offense is anchored by Jose Abreu, too.
Weakness: Defense still has major questions, and this team has 20 games to improve by if it really wants to make the playoffs.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

Let's get this started!

[Hootie]

KC had saved 24 runs against CLE -13 runs coming into yesterday according to the telecast...

that's a 37 run differential

in less than 20 games

...this is why PECOTA and FANGRAPHS and other ranking systems don't work yet

37 runs in 18 games ... slightly over 2 a game difference

if we play Cleveland 162 times and the game starts at 2.1 - 0 our lead ... how many do we win? 125? 120?

[ReynardMuldrake]

K'd Davis didn't even throw a ball last night. Soooo nasty.

http://gfycat.com/NauticalSomeGrasshopper

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

KC had saved 24 runs against CLE -13 runs coming into yesterday according to the telecast...

that's a 37 run differential

in less than 20 games

...this is why PECOTA and FANGRAPHS and other ranking systems don't work yet

37 runs in 18 games ... slightly over 2 a game difference

if we play Cleveland 162 times and the game starts at 2.1 - 0 our lead ... how many do we win? 125? 120?

Isn't it safe to assume any given MLB team with a 2-0 head start in everygame wins 50-60% of the time...?

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Isn't it safe to assume any given MLB team with a 2-0 head start in everygame wins 50-60% of the time...?

If we won 50-60% of games where we were spotted a 2-0 lead, I would be sad.

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Isn't it safe to assume any given MLB team with a 2-0 head start in everygame wins 50-60% of the time...?

I'd hope it would be at least 65% (105 wins)

[Hootie]

but that's against the 28th worst defense in baseball (so far)...

Against an ok defense we probably would start out at 0.7 - 0. Cleveland has just had a really, really, really poor defense to start the year (-13 DRS)

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by alnorth

If we won 50-60% of games where we were spotted a 2-0 lead, I would be sad.

Just going off a wild ass guess. I'd assume the win rate for a team with a 2-0 headstart would be a few percentage points better than the win rate for a team that enters the bottom 1st with a 2-0 advantage and I don't know that specific rate.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Just going off a wild ass guess. I'd assume the win rate for a team with a 2-0 headstart would be a few percentage points better than the win rate for a team that enters the bottom 1st with a 2-0 advantage and I don't know that specific rate.

Based on MLB games played from 1957-2013, when the visiting team is winning 2-0 in the top of the first with bases clear and no outs, they go on to win the game 69.1% of the time. (340 out of 492)

There are no games where the home team is winning in the top of the first because that is impossible, but when the home team is winning 2-0 in the bottom of the first with the bases clear and no out, the home team goes on to win 75.5% of the time. (398 out of 527)

So, if we're spotted a 2-0 lead, I'd hope for about 70%

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Based on MLB games played from 1957-2013, when the visiting team is winning 2-0 in the top of the first with bases clear and no outs, they go on to win the game 69.1% of the time. (340 out of 492)

There are no games where the home team is winning in the top of the first because that is impossible, but when the home team is winning 2-0 in the bottom of the first with the bases clear and no out, the home team goes on to win 75.5% of the time. (398 out of 527)

So, if we're spotted a 2-0 lead, I'd hope for about 70%

Hey I was close enough for government work.

[Discuss Thrower]

Oh, and someone PM Hamas and tell him that Aaron Crow only has two pitches.

[alnorth]

Oh, and if the visiting team is winning 2-0 in the bottom of the first with the bases clear and no out, they win the game 62.0% of the time. Makes sense that its less than in the top of the first since you are eliminating the possibility of piling on more runs in the first.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake

K'd Davis didn't even throw a ball last night. Soooo nasty.

http://gfycat.com/NauticalSomeGrasshopper

[suzzer99]

Here's the gif version:


I guess we'll get beaned for that swag tomorrow. Can't show emotion - even if you make a great pitch. Gotta play the game right - in a joyless funk.

[ReynardMuldrake]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Here's the gif version:


I guess we'll get beaned for that swag tomorrow. Can't show emotion - even if you make a great pitch. Gotta play the game right - in a joyless funk.

I love how he doesn't even have to look. As soon as it leaves his hands, he knows it's a strike.

[Ceej]

OT: Hootie, that fanduel thread in CasinoPlanet is dying.

Help me out man!