Royals *** Official Royals Repository, Part 4 *** - Page 110

duncan_idaho · 10:46 PM

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
4. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
5. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
6. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
7. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

8. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

Prison Bitch · 08-19-2015, 06:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Well when most metrics seem to rate Hosmer as a below average defensive first baseman and worth like 1.5 WAR - that's one big chunk of mistake right there.

He's 3.5 on FG. Where'd you see him at 1.5?

People do seem obsessed with the PECOTA projections but that was the outlier. Most were in the 80 range including the most important one, Vegas. Now if you thought that was dumb you should've made lots + lots of $$$$ betting it.

**BigMeatballDave** · 08-19-2015, 07:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie

Dyson should be in the game every single game we play a RHP. Hell, at this point, I wouldn't even care if you just straight up released Rios and let Dyson play everyday.

Rios did make a nice catch today, but I've seen enough of him to move on now.

I complained about Rios a few weeks ago and was attacked for it. Careful...

Hootie · 08-19-2015, 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

He's 3.5 on FG. Where'd you see him at 1.5?

People do seem obsessed with the PECOTA projections but that was the outlier. Most were in the 80 range including the most important one, Vegas. Now if you thought that was dumb you should've made lots + lots of $$$$ betting it.

I'm on record saying it was hilariously dumb

Fansy the Famous Bard · 08-19-2015, 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigMeatballDave

I complained about Rios a few weeks ago and was attacked for it. Careful...

Toe the line and follow Hootie's cheerleader antics or be labeled a (hilarious) moron.

**Nzoner** · 08-19-2015, 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigMeatballDave

I complained about Rios a few weeks ago and was attacked for it. Careful...

Seriously?The guy is a POS,hell even Francouer looks better,he hit his 11th homer last night.

duncan_idaho · 08-19-2015, 08:25 AM

I like the Border Patrol, and it's a good show. Other than having to dodge minor league soccer talk, I generally prefer it to 610's morning offerings, though I do like Vernier and appreciate the Royals access 610 gets.

Petro is far superior to Lake and Bink, but it's back to 610 for drive listening after that. Keitzman is just tired.

tomahawk kid · 08-19-2015, 08:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nzoner

Seriously?The guy is a POS,hell even Francouer looks better,he hit his 11th homer last night.

REALLY hoping Rios is DFA'd once Gordo gets healthy.

He's giving us absolutely NOTHING right now.

The AB last night where he got up 3-1 and then swung at two ball 4's had me chucking my remote across the room.

Fansy the Famous Bard · 08-19-2015, 08:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I like the Border Patrol, and it's a good show. Other than having to dodge minor league soccer talk, I generally prefer it to 610's morning offerings, though I do like Vernier and appreciate the Royals access 610 gets.

Petro is far superior to Lake and Bink, but it's back to 610 for drive listening after that. Keitzman is just tired.

Petro is really good for baseball talk, however his college basketball takes can be difficult at times. I can't get over how poorly he treats his guests on the show.

Keitzman is unlistenable, at least he was when i last heard him 6 or so years ago.

Molitoth · 08-19-2015, 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I like the Border Patrol, and it's a good show. Other than having to dodge minor league soccer talk, I generally prefer it to 610's morning offerings, though I do like Vernier and appreciate the Royals access 610 gets.

Petro is far superior to Lake and Bink, but it's back to 610 for drive listening after that. Keitzman is just tired.

You mean you don't want to listen to him talk about his GOLF game?

Yeah, his show is absolute garbage.

KChiefs1 · 08-19-2015, 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigMeatballDave

I complained about Rios a few weeks ago and was attacked for it. Careful...

Who would attack you for that reason? Rios is a big steaming pile of crap.

Fairplay · 08-19-2015, 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I like the Border Patrol, and it's a good show. Other than having to dodge minor league soccer talk, I generally prefer it to 610's morning offerings, though I do like Vernier and appreciate the Royals access 610 gets.

Petro is far superior to Lake and Bink, but it's back to 610 for drive listening after that. Keitzman is just tired.

Don't get me started on how bad Keitzman is 810 needs to fire a lot of people and start over again is my advice.

Lake and Bink are decent to listen to though the 'That's what she said' has gotten stale.

I like c-dot on The Drive cause he is funny, Parkins is high on himself and thinks his poop don't stink plus he airs is left wing political views too much he needs to just

about them. Its a sports radio not a political show.

My 2 cents is that they air more guests from past Royals/Chiefs teams, listeners would be interested in many of them and hear a few stories from their old glory days gone by.

duncan_idaho · 08-19-2015, 09:25 AM

Rios staying in the lineup was defensible two weeks ago. He had a strong month of July and there was reason to hope he'd finally gotten healthy. Obviously, he has regressed since then.

There's really no defense of him at this point. The slump over the past 2-3 weeks has driven away any slivers of optimism.

Hootie · 08-19-2015, 09:28 AM

My only point on Rios is there is nothing to be gained by releasing him ... August was his tryout to see if he could build on his July. He didn't. Once Gordon returns, he's a bench bat and probably not on the postseason roster.

**Saul Good** · 08-19-2015, 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke

Petro is really good for baseball talk, however his college basketball takes can be difficult at times. I can't get over how poorly he treats his guests on the show.

Keitzman is unlistenable, at least he was when i last heard him 6 or so years ago.

The guests he treats poorly are his buddies, and they just give each other shit. I travel a decent amount, and Petro is easily the best local sports guy I've heard. 15 years ago, I couldn't stand the guy, though.

siberian khatru · 08-19-2015, 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

My only point on Rios is there is nothing to be gained by releasing him ... August was his tryout to see if he could build on his July. He didn't. Once Gordon returns, he's a bench bat and probably not on the postseason roster.

A 40-man roster spot, if it's needed.

But otherwise, yes. I honestly think Ned's going to do the right thing with Infante and Rios in September. The solutions are just too glaringly obvious. He's given Rios PT and Infante time off to come around by Sept. 1, so he can at least tell them he's been fair to them, but after that I think he makes the switches.

07-14-2015, 11:05 PM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1390308	* Official Royals Repository, Part 4 * In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions. Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins One month in: Looking strong All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins. Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro! All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one. Division Preview Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them. Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out. And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture. The Royals will be a division winner IF ... 1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work 2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts 3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland 4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy 5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back. Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015: Spoiler! 1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1 2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016. 3. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level. 4. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season. 5. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup. 6. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly. 7. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up. Spoiler! 8. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags. 9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing. 10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with. 11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced. 12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch. 13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them. 14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching. 15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list. 16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far. 17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble. Last edited by duncan_idaho; 10-06-2015 at 10:46 PM..
Posts: 21,166

08-19-2015, 08:25 AM	#1641
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1390308	I like the Border Patrol, and it's a good show. Other than having to dodge minor league soccer talk, I generally prefer it to 610's morning offerings, though I do like Vernier and appreciate the Royals access 610 gets. Petro is far superior to Lake and Bink, but it's back to 610 for drive listening after that. Keitzman is just tired. __________________ "You gotta love livin', cause dying is a pain in the ass." ---- Sinatra
Posts: 21,166

08-19-2015, 09:25 AM	#1647
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1390308	Rios staying in the lineup was defensible two weeks ago. He had a strong month of July and there was reason to hope he'd finally gotten healthy. Obviously, he has regressed since then. There's really no defense of him at this point. The slump over the past 2-3 weeks has driven away any slivers of optimism. __________________ "You gotta love livin', cause dying is a pain in the ass." ---- Sinatra
Posts: 21,166

08-19-2015, 09:28 AM	#1648
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	My only point on Rios is there is nothing to be gained by releasing him ... August was his tryout to see if he could build on his July. He didn't. Once Gordon returns, he's a bench bat and probably not on the postseason roster.
Posts: 56,356