***Official 2016 STL Cardinals Thread***

[BigRedChief]

• 2011 World Series Championship
• 2012 NLCS. One win from another WS appearance.
• 2013 World Series. Two wins from another World Series Championship
• 2014 NLCS. Three wins from another WS appearance
• 2015 Central Division title. Won 100 games. Lost in the NLDS.
• Made the postseason 11 times in the last 15 seasons.
• 67 post season wins since 2004. 24+ wins more than any other team.

SI article on our off season, Gives us a "A". ??:
http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/02/12/win...ouis-cardinals

2015 III thread:
http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=295296
2015 II thread:
http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=293412
2015 I thread:
http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=289085

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I'm actually hopeful that we might win a series in the playoffs now, with some luck. Waino and Martinez can give us 3 games in the 5 game series and 4 in a 7 game series. We get a homer in the correct place, ya never know.........But, thats only possible if we fix the bullpen. And don't have defensive meltdowns. Long shot for sure but the 2006/2011 teams were long shots. Get in the tournament and cross your fingers???

No bullpen and the guy that's the most likely help in Reyes can't throw strikes so you can't use him in high leverage situations.

If Weaver could come up and give us what Lynn did in 2011, that would be a big boost. Oh may just be able to keep the 9th, but would you really trust him with a post-season game on the line? Or 4 of them for that matter? Broxton's a gas can and I don't know how Siegrist can raise his arm above his head at this point. Maness is throwing BP these days and Rosenthal is Rosenthal.

Worse still, given the cost of relief pitching and the very long odds of us actually accomplishing anything meaningful in October, I'm damn sure not looking to pay what it would take for legitimate reinforcements.

Oh yeah, and it's still an average defensive team on its best days. What better salve for a spotty bullpen than a leaky defense?

Honestly, I still don't think they'll even make the post-season. But even if they do, I don't seem them making it out of the NLDS. Every team they might face is better than they are.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

That's the same thing people said about Lynn.

Rarely is it actually mental. His issue in the playoffs last year wasn't mental; dude was sick. I guess you can chalk not telling anyone about it up to a vapor lock, but I don't blame him after how the organization handled him over the last 3 years. They tried to bury him at every turn and it wasn't until he went against their medical directives that he got himself right again.

I love watching Garcia pitch. He battles his ass off out there. The guy works at 91 mph and gets by on simple old-school movement. He doesn't throw anything that goes straight and his arsenal allows him to attack all four quadrants from the same general tunnel. He's smart with his pitches, kills plenty of worms and does a great job fielding his position. He's a throw-back to Duncan (and the guys that pre-dated him).

You don't come back from Tommy John surgery in the minors, 3 seasons wandering the wastelands and thoracic outlet surgery by being a pussy. The guy's a legit bulldog out there that isn't any more demonstrative than Carpenter was and we revered Carpenter for it.

Absolutely, I have been amazed he has been able to pitch as well as he has the last two years. What looks like mental, is most likely just the physical battle of trying to get everything in place at the right time. A mental issue example is more like Rosenthal, nothing is physically wrong, but similar to a golfer who gets the yips, he can't find the strike zone because he can't consistently repeat his approach (but not due, at least apparently from a physical issue).

You are so right about the movement, he is almost like having a good knuckle baller on your staff. I think it is important to have some diversity in your starting staff, if they all are clones it is easier for hitters to adjust day to day. Herzog used to bench Hendrick against Neikro because he felt like he was messed up for the next few days.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

No bullpen and the guy that's the most likely help in Reyes can't throw strikes so you can't use him in high leverage situations.

If Weaver could come up and give us what Lynn did in 2011, that would be a big boost. Oh may just be able to keep the 9th, but would you really trust him with a post-season game on the line? Or 4 of them for that matter? Broxton's a gas can and I don't know how Siegrist can raise his arm above his head at this point. Maness is throwing BP these days and Rosenthal is Rosenthal.

Worse still, given the cost of relief pitching and the very long odds of us actually accomplishing anything meaningful in October, I'm damn sure not looking to pay what it would take for legitimate reinforcements.

Oh yeah, and it's still an average defensive team on its best days. What better salve for a spotty bullpen than a leaky defense?

Honestly, I still don't think they'll even make the post-season. But even if they do, I don't seem them making it out of the NLDS. Every team they might face is better than they are.

I'm surprised we haven't heard Weaver's name as a possibility. He projects more like an Oh, great K/BB ratio, good WHIP. Is he untouchable, no, but his history has been he isn't likely to walk himself into a hole.

Rosenthal needs to go to the minors, work as a starter and develop confidence in secondary pitches. Find even one that is off speed he can throw consistently for a strike and he likely can become a closer again, possibly dominant. Look at what Seigrist said today. He is getting more confident with his hook which has changed the way hitters (particularly lefties who were teeing off on him last year) approach him. Last year they ignored his slider and waited on the fastball. Drop a 12/6 duece first or second pitch for a strike it changes everything.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by VAChief

I'm surprised we haven't heard Weaver's name as a possibility. He projects more like an Oh, great K/BB ratio, good WHIP. Is he untouchable, no, but his history has been he isn't likely to walk himself into a hole.

Rosenthal needs to go to the minors, work as a starter and develop confidence in secondary pitches. Find even one that is off speed he can throw consistently for a strike and he likely can become a closer again, possibly dominant. Look at what Seigrist said today. He is getting more confident with his hook which has changed the way hitters (particularly lefties who were teeing off on him last year) approach him.

Interesting thing with Weaver though is that his ceiling has likely gone up right before our very eyes.

People forget that Weaver entered his JR year as a consensus top 10 pick with an outside shot at making himself the first college pitcher drafted. Then he regressed. He lost some velocity and appeared to be guiding the ball.

Well the Cards thought they saw some stuff they could fix, worked at it last year and appear to have unleashed him on an unsuspecting world this season. Suddenly he's evidently back to working at 95 mph and touching 97. More critically, he's K rate has rocketed back up in a very hitter-friendly league.

I don't think it's fair to say he's a guy with a #3 ceiling anymore. He probably doesn't project to be a true ace, but I see no reason to say that his ceiling is any more limited than Martinez's at this point. If he's truly working in the mid-high 90s and it's not just a hot gun, there's no reason that he can't be a fringe #1, high end #2 if his development continues a bit.

The kid's still only 22 and has a nice long frame that could probably support additional weight. He appears to have unlearned whatever got him in a bit of trouble as a junior at FSU and may be the best overall prospect we have at this point.

I will concede that I mis-fired on this kid. I saw a potential back of the rotation arm who needed to develop a breaking ball and would probably keep losing velocity until he settled into a Jeff Suppan kinda career. He definitely looks to be headed the other direction.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Interesting thing with Weaver though is that his ceiling has likely gone up right before our very eyes.

People forget that Weaver entered his JR year as a consensus top 10 pick with an outside shot at making himself the first college pitcher drafted. Then he regressed. He lost some velocity and appeared to be guiding the ball.

Well the Cards thought they saw some stuff they could fix, worked at it last year and appear to have unleashed him on an unsuspecting world this season. Suddenly he's evidently back to working at 95 mph and touching 97. More critically, he's K rate has rocketed back up in a very hitter-friendly league.

I don't think it's fair to say he's a guy with a #3 ceiling anymore. He probably doesn't project to be a true ace, but I see no reason to say that his ceiling is any more limited than Martinez's at this point. If he's truly working in the mid-high 90s and it's not just a hot gun, there's no reason that he can't be a fringe #1, high end #2 if his development continues a bit.

The kid's still only 22 and has a nice long frame that could probably support additional weight. He appears to have unlearned whatever got him in a bit of trouble as a junior at FSU and may be the best overall prospect we have at this point.

I will concede that I mis-fired on this kid. I saw a potential back of the rotation arm who needed to develop a breaking ball and would probably keep losing velocity until he settled into a Jeff Suppan kinda career. He definitely looks to be headed the other direction.

I always knew you didn't know your ass from your elbow. This confirms.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I will concede that I mis-fired on this kid.

My Florida buddies accept your apology.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

may be the best overall prospect we have at this point.

Better ceiling and prospect than Reyes? GTFO!

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

My Florida buddies accept your apology.
Better ceiling and prospect than Reyes? GTFO!

"best overall" would be a combination of ceiling and odds of reaching same, not to mention floor.

Whatever Weaver's ceiling is, I'd say his chances of hitting it are above average. Moreover, if he doesn't hit it, wouldn't you say that his floor is probably still a 4-5 starter? If his fastball's a mirage or his breaker doesn't finish developing depth/shape, then you get what Michael Wacha presently is, no?

Whereas is Reyes can't learn to !@#$ing throw strikes, what is he? Sam Tuivialala? He absolutely has to stop walking everyone and pitching from behind in the count. He's of no use to anyone right now if he can't even get basic control, let alone command in the zone.

When you look at the respective worst case scenarios as well as the fact that Weaver's development arc's been pretty steady as opposed to the jags we've seen in Reyes, there's a chance that Weaver's the better prospect on balance.

I'd need more for Reyes in trade than Weaver because I'm a sucker for upside, but if you put a 'projected WAR over the next 6 seasons' on both of them, I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the year, Weaver's is slightly better given the volatility in Reyes's projections.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

I always knew you didn't know your ass from your elbow. This confirms.

Damn.

The list of people I have snowed isn't terribly long to begin with. I fear it was just reduced by a third.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I don't think it's fair to say he's a guy with a #3 ceiling anymore. He probably doesn't project to be a true ace, but I see no reason to say that his ceiling is any more limited than Martinez's at this point.

He sounds a bit more polished than Martinez was at that level (of course Martinez was younger) and it has been exciting to hear that his stuff as actually been something he has improved, which if he was built like Lance Lynn you wouldn't be as surprised. The fact that his velocity returned has not surprised me as much, but that he seems to maintain it in deep into his starts. Which tells me it doesn't appear to be him just maxing out in short bursts.

I have been so impressed with Carlos the last few starts all around. He seems to be putting it all together. Poise even when he doesn't have his best stuff. The willingness and ability to get quicker outs.

That sinker he through for the strike out later in the game at 98 yesterday had utterly sick movement.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Damn.

The list of people I have snowed isn't terribly long to begin with. I fear it was just reduced by a third.

I was always skeptical. But no more fence sitting

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by VAChief

He sounds a bit more polished than Martinez was at that level (of course Martinez was younger) and it has been exciting to hear that his stuff as actually been something he has improved, which if he was built like Lance Lynn you wouldn't be as surprised. The fact that his velocity returned has not surprised me as much, but that he seems to maintain it in deep into his starts. Which tells me it doesn't appear to be him just maxing out in short bursts.

I have been so impressed with Carlos the last few starts all around. He seems to be putting it all together. Poise even when he doesn't have his best stuff. The willingness and ability to get quicker outs.

That sinker he through for the strike out later in the game at 98 yesterday had utterly sick movement.

He threw the most vile pitch I've ever seen in person last year. He threw a changeup that nobody would've hit with a tennis racket.

He pitches a little across his body and from that arm slot, he just gets vile armside run even when he's working around 97 mph. Then to take that pitch, subtract 10 mph from it and give it the kind of drop he got on it (at least on that occasion) and it was just impossible. There was no way to not swing at it, no way to actually make contact with it. Your best hope would've been to have a stroke as he was delivering it and just fall down in the box, then pray that it floats out of the zone.

I don't think Weaver ever gets that kind of movement, but then again, for most guys that kind of movement comes at a cost (like I said, Carlos has to throw across his body to do it and that almost always yields an eventual breakdown). Weaver's much thinner than Lynn ever was. He actually reminds me a bit of Greinke - very long and lean but as Greinke matured, he probably added about 20 lbs. He was still on the slight side, but at least his uniform fit.

Weaver could do the same and maybe the added strength will make up for the inevitable velocity loss that comes with simply throwing pitches at this level.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

I was always skeptical. But no more fence sitting

Yeah, but you're gullible.

I'll have you convinced again soon enough. I'll start talking about pitch sequencing and string luck and shit like that and you'll just lap it up. Oh sure, it will be complete gibberish and be used completely out of context, but you won't know any better.

Dentists....they're like osteopaths, but somehow lazier and more credulous.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah, but you're gullible.

I'll have you convinced again soon enough. I'll start talking about pitch sequencing and string luck and shit like that and you'll just lap it up. Oh sure, it will be complete gibberish and be used completely out of context, but you won't know any better.

Dentists....they're like osteopaths, but somehow lazier and more credulous.

Possibly.

[bdj23]

Can you guys dumb it down a shade?

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

He threw the most vile pitch I've ever seen in person last year. He threw a changeup that nobody would've hit with a tennis racket.

He pitches a little across his body and from that arm slot, he just gets vile armside run even when he's working around 97 mph. Then to take that pitch, subtract 10 mph from it and give it the kind of drop he got on it (at least on that occasion) and it was just impossible. There was no way to not swing at it, no way to actually make contact with it. Your best hope would've been to have a stroke as he was delivering it and just fall down in the box, then pray that it floats out of the zone.

I don't think Weaver ever gets that kind of movement, but then again, for most guys that kind of movement comes at a cost (like I said, Carlos has to throw across his body to do it and that almost always yields an eventual breakdown). Weaver's much thinner than Lynn ever was. He actually reminds me a bit of Greinke - very long and lean but as Greinke matured, he probably added about 20 lbs. He was still on the slight side, but at least his uniform fit.

Weaver could do the same and maybe the added strength will make up for the inevitable velocity loss that comes with simply throwing pitches at this level.

I was worried about Martinez once I saw him in person too, I just hope he has one of those gifted arms that sometimes defy what normally tears someone apart. I think for him if he puts on weight it will actually hurt him, I think he gets enough push with his legs that his whipping motion, even across his body is less stressful than someone who is not as athletic.

I wasn't clear about Weaver and Lynn, I meant that if he had a frame like Lynn it wouldn't have surprised me to see a jump in his stuff. Bigger frame guys often you expect to see their velocity tick up as they mature, but smaller, lighter guys not as much. I worried about Weaver early that he was a kid who was max effort on each pitch and he wouldn't be able to sustain it. It seems like that was a wrong assumption, which I will gladly hope continues to be so because it looks like Wacha has started to show more like his floor than the ceiling he was projecting early on. I think Wacha is now #3 ceiling. When I watched him in the 2013 NL Championship game live, I thought he was can't miss #2, and a good chance at a solid ace, even CY Young contender. It looked just that easy for him.