Royals *** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository *** - Page 104

duncan_idaho · 09:49 AM

Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.

Spoiler!

11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates.
19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system.
20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.

**Saul Good** · 12-11-2015, 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

I'm not so sure that contract is "doable" for the Royals in their present situation.

They're not going to want to guarantee that 5th year on a player that will be then 37. So a 5 for $90 mil. contract would look something like;

Year 1: 18 mil.
Year 2: 20 mil.
Year 3: 22 mil.
Year 4: 25 mil.
Year 5: 28 mil. (Team option - $5 mil. buyout)

IF the Royals are interested in re-signing Gordon and his price tag is around 90 mil. that is the type of contract they would have to consider.

I love Gordon, but it doesn't make sense to give that contract to a player that is 32 years old. 27 or 28, maybe.

If his price tag goes that high, the Royals would be smart to let him walk and focus on LoCain and/or Moose. Maybe give Salvy a little more $$$ for some extra years trade off. Hoz is a pipedream. He is Taylor made for Yankees stadium and I'm sure the Yankees would throw 28-30 mil. Per year at him once he hits FA at the young age of 28. And if not them, someone else will.

Gordon is a franchise icon and will always be a 'Royal' at heart, but it's time to tip our cap, thank him for his years of service and move on. Unless his price tag becomes lower than expected ( say $75 mil. over 5).

You can't cripple the future of the franchise over sentimentality.

Math

TomBarndtsTwin · 12-11-2015, 07:28 PM

You don't count the total salary in the 5th year if it is an option year, you count the buyout amount.

Thus, the guaranteed amount of the contract would be 5 years for 90 mil. And that is the type of contract the Royals would have to do if his price tag goes that high. Which, again, makes no sense for them long term.

**Saul Good** · 12-11-2015, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

You don't count the total salary in the 5th year if it is an option year, you count the buyout amount.

Thus, the guaranteed amount of the contract would be 5 years for 90 mil. And that is the type of contract the Royals would have to do if his price tag goes that high. Which, again, makes no sense for them long term.

WTF are you talking about? That would be 4 years $90,000,000

TomBarndtsTwin · 12-11-2015, 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saul Good

WTF are you talking about? That would be 4 years $90,000,000

Well, you can either call it for 4 for 85 or 5 for 90. The option amount is for the 5th year, so you would be paying the 90 million over a 5 year period. Again, this is assuming Gordon were to land a contract for a guaranteed 90 million.

I mean, yes the Royals could also do:

Year 1 - 14 mil.
Year 2 - 16 mil.
Year 3 - 18 mil.
Year 4 - 20 mil.
Year 5 - 22 mil.

But under that scenario, you're guaranteeing that you're paying Alex 22 million in his 5th year, when he is 37 years old. IF the Royals really want Gordo back, I don't see GMDM guaranteeing anything beyond 4 years. It's just not the way he typically does business.

I still don't think it will matter because some team will overpay and offer him stupid money (over $100 mil.) for his age. Thus is the way of baseball and contracts nowadays.

Prison Bitch · 12-11-2015, 08:19 PM

Let's all agree that any hypothetical involving Dayton will include the vaunted "mutual option".

**Saul Good** · 12-11-2015, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

Well, you can either call it for 4 for 85 or 5 for 90. The option amount is for the 5th year, so you would be paying the 90 million over a 5 year period. Again, this is assuming Gordon were to land a contract for a guaranteed 90 million.

I mean, yes the Royals could also do:

Year 1 - 14 mil.
Year 2 - 16 mil.
Year 3 - 18 mil.
Year 4 - 20 mil.
Year 5 - 22 mil.

But under that scenario, you're guaranteeing that you're paying Alex 22 million in his 5th year, when he is 37 years old. IF the Royals really want Gordo back, I don't see GMDM guaranteeing anything beyond 4 years. It's just not the way he typically does business.

I still don't think it will matter because some team will overpay and offer him stupid money (over $100 mil.) for his age. Thus is the way of baseball and contracts nowadays.

Think about what you're saying. You said that the Royals don't want to pay for that fifth year, so you suggest paying the same amount of money for only 4 years.

WilliamTheIrish · 12-11-2015, 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

AL fans: I've done some digging on Chen; looked at arsenal and what not, watched some clips on Youtube - why is there not more buzz around the guy?

He's a legitimate 4 pitch pitcher with 2 fastballs (making him a 5 pitch pitcher). His average fastball velocity is over 91 but it's because he's a tinkerer in the Greinke mold; he adds and subtracts from his fastball a lot. I watched an AB where he had 94/95 with ease to blow away Nelson Cruz. He's a lefty so even if his velocity declines a bit, his stuff will play up as he ages.

He pitched to a mid 3's ERA in an hellish homer environment (not to mention with so many road games in Boston, Toronto and NYY). He has a superlative walk rate and his HR rate away from Camden is top shelf.

Why is this guy so far under the radar? Is there something you guys see about him that I'm missing? This guy appears to be a no-shit #2 starter with the potential to be among the top 10 LHSP in the league (non-Kershaw division). What am I missing? Why don't people seem to think he's as good as I do?

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-bi...005152575.html

Do you remember his strange "demotion" last June? He was pitching great and they cited "general soreness". That was after he went 8 1/3 in a victory and struck out 9.

TomBarndtsTwin · 12-11-2015, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saul Good

Think about what you're saying. You said that the Royals don't want to pay for that fifth year, so you suggest paying the same amount of money for only 4 years.

I'm saying IF Alex gets a guaranteed 90 mil. (which he probably will) and the Royals really want him back, they can either have him on the books for 4 or 5 years. And, IMO, GM DM will not want him on the books for a 5th year at his age 37 season.

He's getting the money either way in the above scenario. You're just either paying it over 4 or 5 years.

duncan_idaho · 12-11-2015, 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

I'm saying IF Alex gets a guaranteed 90 mil. (which he probably will) and the Royals really want him back, they can either have him on the books for 4 or 5 years. And, IMO, GM DM will not want him on the books for a 5th year at his age 37 season.

He's getting the money either way in the above scenario. You're just either paying it over 4 or 5 years.

It's more likely the thing is structured 5/85 with a 5 million buyout on a mutual sixth year than what you're suggesting.

That makes him a very a affordable 17 AAV and spreads it out in a manageable manner.

What you're suggesting doesn't make sense.

TomBarndtsTwin · 12-11-2015, 08:57 PM

I don't think the Royals are willing to guarantee 5 years to Alex. IMO, he will get 90 million in guaranteed money.

Ultimately, that was what I was trying to say. I don't think they want to commit beyond 4 years. Again, just my opinion.

duncan_idaho · 12-11-2015, 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

I don't think the Royals are willing to guarantee 5 years to Alex. IMO, he will get 90 million in guaranteed money.

Ultimately, that was what I was trying to say. I don't think they want to commit beyond 4 years. Again, just my opinion.

I get not wanting to commit beyond 4 years. But they're not going to give him the money he'd get over 5 years from someone else over 4 years, either.

At that point, you might as well have the fifth year of the contract. If you're on the hook for $90 million anyway, and can spread it over five, you might as well.

The $90 million is a sunk cost either way. Even if you don't get much value at all out of year 5, it's still an extra year of value.

To put it in WAR terms:

Year 1 - 4.5 WAR
Year 2 - 4 WAR
Year 3 - 3 WAR
Year 4 1.5 WAR
Year 5 - 1 WAR

KevB · 12-11-2015, 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I get not wanting to commit beyond 4 years. But they're not going to give him the money he'd get over 5 years from someone else over 4 years, either.

At that point, you might as well have the fifth year of the contract. If you're on the hook for $90 million anyway, and can spread it over five, you might as well.

The $90 million is a sunk cost either way. Even if you don't get much value at all out of year 5, it's still an extra year of value.

To put it in WAR terms:

Year 1 - 4.5 WAR
Year 2 - 4 WAR
Year 3 - 3 WAR
Year 4 1.5 WAR
Year 5 - 1 WAR

And in years 4 and 5, you have a new TV deal to help defray the cost.

**Saul Good** · 12-11-2015, 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

I don't think the Royals are willing to guarantee 5 years to Alex. IMO, he will get 90 million in guaranteed money.

Ultimately, that was what I was trying to say. I don't think they want to commit beyond 4 years. Again, just my opinion.

What you are suggesting would be like looking at a car you want to lease and deciding that you don't want to lock yourself into a 6 year lease at $500 a month, so you lease the same car for 5 years at $600 a month.

KC_Connection · 12-11-2015, 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WilliamTheIrish

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-bi...005152575.html

Do you remember his strange "demotion" last June? He was pitching great and they cited "general soreness". That was after he went 8 1/3 in a victory and struck out 9.

He was demoted by Showalter so they could throw a generic RH starter against the Jays' RH bats instead of a lefty. It didn't work out, though. That wasn't the first or last time Showalter set up the rotation last year to avoid that possibility, but he took it to a new level with that demotion.

Wilson8 · 12-11-2015, 11:28 PM

From a December 9th Kansas City Star story, http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb...e48900090.html, on Dayton Moore and the Winter Meetings –

Quote:

On Tuesday, Moore declared that Jarrod Dyson would occupy one of the corner outfield spots on a regular basis. A day later, he expressed his confidence that the team could survive without making any outfield additions, using Paulo Orlando plus a pool of minor-leaguers like Brett Eibner, Reymond Fuentes, and Jose Martinez to fill the rest of the outfield void.

Quote:

“But we also know this, that if we do nothing in the outfield, we’re going to be very good defensively. We’re going to have speed, and we’re going to have upside.”

Eibner, Fuentes, and Martinez have all had good stats in 2015.
For any of you that follow the Royals minor leagues or having watched the Omaha Storm Chasers, what can we expect from these three outfielders? Jose Martinez at 6’7” and a .384 AAA average seems impressive. What is his defense like? Brett Eibner, stat wise, handles LHP and RHP equally well. What’s his speed and defense like? I also like Reymond Fuentes being a LHB and his .308 average looks good. Fuentes looks like he might have some speed too, with 29 stolen bases.

Any information on these guys from someone that has actually seen them play would be appreciated.

11-02-2015, 05:00 PM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1190308	* Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository * Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB. In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title. Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore. We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa. Now, let's talk about the offseason: LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully). First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts. Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things. If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc. I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk. Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth? Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years. Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list). Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period. The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer. I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be: 1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160). Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura) 2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016. Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell. After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart. 3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season. 4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time. And, as always, here are the Prospects: Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016: Spoiler! 1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1 2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016. 3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags. 4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level. 5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season. 6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup. 7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly. 8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up. 9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing. 10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with. Spoiler! 11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced. 12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch. 13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them. 14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching. 15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list. 16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far. 17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble. 18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates. 19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system. 20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task. Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-17-2015 at 09:49 AM..
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12-11-2015, 07:28 PM	#1547
TomBarndtsTwin MVP Join Date: Mar 2013 Casino cash: $4819883	You don't count the total salary in the 5th year if it is an option year, you count the buyout amount. Thus, the guaranteed amount of the contract would be 5 years for 90 mil. And that is the type of contract the Royals would have to do if his price tag goes that high. Which, again, makes no sense for them long term.
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12-11-2015, 08:19 PM	#1550
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	Let's all agree that any hypothetical involving Dayton will include the vaunted "mutual option".
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12-11-2015, 08:57 PM	#1555
TomBarndtsTwin MVP Join Date: Mar 2013 Casino cash: $4819883	I don't think the Royals are willing to guarantee 5 years to Alex. IMO, he will get 90 million in guaranteed money. Ultimately, that was what I was trying to say. I don't think they want to commit beyond 4 years. Again, just my opinion.
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