|
09-27-2012, 10:12 PM | #1996 |
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
Casino cash: $1385002
|
Don't think ANYONE argued that point. Some of us argued that just like the PC industry, Apple will settle in to it's "equilibrium" point around 17%. Which is still great for a single manufacturer, but their model doesn't lend itself to holding on to a majority of the market. Just look at phones. Or PCs. It won't be ONE Android tablet, it will be an industry full of Android, Windows, etc tablets... I have no doubt that much like phones, they will stay as the top single manuafacturer for awhile.... right around 17% or so.
|
Posts: 19,788
|
09-27-2012, 10:17 PM | #1997 | |
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
Casino cash: $1385002
|
Quote:
I disagree on the importance of white box sales. Those sales help drive down manufacturing costs across the board and also apply downward pressure on the pricing industry wide. Look at the PC industry for an example of how "white box" PCs forced brand names into pricing wars. |
|
Posts: 19,788
|
09-27-2012, 10:22 PM | #1998 | |
Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2004
Casino cash: $10005059
|
Quote:
The pressure right now is on the ecosystems, not the hardware. |
|
Posts: 3,785
|
09-27-2012, 10:26 PM | #1999 | |
Ain't no relax!
Join Date: Sep 2005
Casino cash: $798919
|
Quote:
I thought that "Others" in the graph, the second largest percentage by far at over 12%, might include something along those lines... What else would "Others" be?
__________________
|
|
Posts: 48,267
|
09-27-2012, 10:36 PM | #2000 | |
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
Casino cash: $1385002
|
Quote:
In your survey, "others" is the other Tier 1 (sometimes called Tier A) manufacturers. Hell, in the 1st half of 2012 they had already sold 18 million white box tabs and that is JUST Chinese manufacturers, I have no clue on Indian numbers.. I'd guess (but it is purely out of my ass guessing) that they are around 10% of that.. maybe 2 million, so they certainly should hit 40 million for the year. http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20120724PD212.html And the "shadow market" is a proper term in the industry. |
|
Posts: 19,788
|
09-27-2012, 10:38 PM | #2001 | ||
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
Casino cash: $1385002
|
Quote:
Quote:
|
||
Posts: 19,788
|
09-27-2012, 10:39 PM | #2002 | |
Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2004
Casino cash: $10005059
|
Quote:
|
|
Posts: 3,785
|
09-27-2012, 10:47 PM | #2003 |
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
Casino cash: $1385002
|
Officially? That's actually a complicated answer. What you see mostly are 3rd party Chinese market specific app stores. They work just fine for that market but obviously would have issues if you bought one there and brought it here. The biggest issue why Play isn't bigger there is due to censorship and monetizing issues.
|
Posts: 19,788
|
09-27-2012, 10:52 PM | #2004 | |
Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2004
Casino cash: $10005059
|
Quote:
IF they're doing anything, they're running Android apps and getting some advertising back. I assume they have some of the highest piracy rates in the world, and Google is going at that. Google has become very clear in what they'll do. They'll put out open source Android code, but that's it. And they're willing to overlook the Cyanogen community. But if you distribute a product, and don't make it compatible with Google, you're done. Counting the white market is like counting the Chinese market for knockoff NFL jerseys. It exists, sure, but does it contribute anything back home? |
|
Posts: 3,785
|
09-27-2012, 11:00 PM | #2005 | |
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
Casino cash: $1385002
|
Quote:
Either way, they are tablets over 7".. they count! (as per my bet regarding Apple market share.. which I will still probably lose because MS is a full 8 months behind my estimates on a release date... ****ers... although I still have one segment that I can't find numbers for that could put me on top... but these freakin numbers are almost impossible to find.) |
|
Posts: 19,788
|
09-27-2012, 11:07 PM | #2006 | |
Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2004
Casino cash: $10005059
|
Quote:
I bought a Nexus 7, and I got $25 free to spend with Google along with it. Hardware isn't important; it's all about the ecosystem. Google wants you invested in gmail, youtube, drive, chrome, play, etc. Do you think Google has made any money on me yet? I mean they probably have, because I'm a long time user of their services. But they certainly haven't on the Nexus yet. It's also a bit naive to think white manufactures have much influence over prices. You have two disruptive companies right now - ASUS and Amazon. And the first comes with Google's help; their flagships are still priced accordingly. |
|
Posts: 3,785
|
09-27-2012, 11:12 PM | #2007 | |
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
Casino cash: $1385002
|
Quote:
White box manufacturing helps drive down the cost of MAKING the tablets... while also creating pressure to sell at low prices. Yes, the Nexus isn't going to drop in price unless the manufacturing cost drops.. which is exactly what increased white box production does. Along the way, it helps make sure some idiot company like Motorola thinks twice before releasing a $600 tablet again. |
|
Posts: 19,788
|
09-27-2012, 11:29 PM | #2008 | |
Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2004
Casino cash: $10005059
|
Quote:
I just don't think your premise makes sense. You have a handful of processors that can run modern day tablets. The S4, Tegra 3, OMAP whatever. And you have a limited supply there. Also with your screens. With desktops and laqptops it was different, because you had a giant, open ecosystem. With phones and tablets, it's completely closed. Apple is proprietary, Microsoft is almost there, and Google supports one or maybe two each cycle, and leaves it up to the manufacturers to make it work. And you still have plenty of proprietary parts in there they have to make work. There's no "driver" system. There's no real economy of scale, outside of perhaps Apple and Samsung. And between those two, neither wants to drive down prices. |
|
Posts: 3,785
|
09-27-2012, 11:53 PM | #2009 | |
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
Casino cash: $1385002
|
Quote:
Here is a big example. Do you know what the majority of these new white box manufacturers used to make? Netbooks. They have retooled factories and the result is more competition in the assembly space. You also have more and more (and more) companies entering the display space. Check out the Taiwanese players that are ramping up... mostly because of white box sales... ChiMei Innolux is a good example. Same for processors actually, you have ZTE, HUAWEI and Lenovo making tablet procs. Hell there is even a HUGE growth right now in MIPS procs for tablets. I'm telling you, there is a whole other world of tablets out there that is JUST AS LARGE as the stuff we hear about here and it is far more WIDE OPEN. |
|
Posts: 19,788
|
09-28-2012, 12:10 AM | #2010 | |
Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2004
Casino cash: $10005059
|
Quote:
It's ecosystem, not hardware. That's what Android is all about. |
|
Posts: 3,785
|
|
|