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Old 12-22-2014, 11:14 PM  
tk13 tk13 is offline
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AFC Playoff Picture after week 16
1) New England 12-3
2) Denver 11-4

3) Cincinnati 10-4-1
6) San Diego 9-6

4) Indianapolis 10-5
5) Pittsburgh 10-5

Baltimore 9-6
Houston 8-7
Kansas City 8-7

-New England has clinched the 1 seed.

-Denver clinches the 2 seed with a win. A Denver loss + CIN win would give CIN the 2 seed.

-If Denver wins, the CIN/PIT winner will be the 3rd seed. PIT cannot go higher than the 3 seed.

-Indianapolis is the 4 seed

-The CIN/PIT loser will be the 5 seed.

-San Diego gets the 6 seed with a win. They lose, Baltimore gets in with a win. They both lose, Houston gets in with a win. BAL & HOU lose, KC gets in with a win.

This is all assuming no ties next week.
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Old 12-22-2014, 11:15 PM   #2
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Chiefs 5.5% chance.
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Old 12-22-2014, 11:19 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Chiefs 5.5% chance.
Really? That's higher than the end of the 2006 season isn't it? That's surprising. Especially since we're counting on Jacksonville to win.
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Old 12-22-2014, 11:22 PM   #4
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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It would be hilarious to see Houston get in when they're on their third QB of the season and the #1 overall pick contributes next to nothing, yet the Chiefs give that bozo $17+ million per year and sit at home.

Because Chiefs.
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Old 12-22-2014, 11:26 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tk13 View Post
Really? That's higher than the end of the 2006 season isn't it? That's surprising. Especially since we're counting on Jacksonville to win.
I do believe it is significantly higher. That year was miraculous. We had to win, and we needed like 4 out of 5 of the early games to go our way, and they did. Then we needed Denver to lose to a very crappy 49er team. The thing is, we had to have a lot of things go right for us in week 16 in order to get to week 17. It was probably less than 1% going in to week 16.

This year, according to the model:

Chiefs win = 72% (not sure I believe that)
Baltimore loss = 36%
Houston loss = 23%

0.72 * 0.36 * 0.23 = 0.06
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Old 12-22-2014, 11:28 PM   #6
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That makes sense. Now we really only need two other teams to lose, even though they'd both be upsets. We needed about 4 upsets in 2006.
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Old 12-22-2014, 11:28 PM   #7
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Model is crap if it says 72% chance we beat San Diego. Maybe 72% they beat us.
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Old 12-22-2014, 11:31 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Lane View Post
Model is crap if it says 72% chance we beat San Diego. Maybe 72% they beat us.
I'm not going to argue.

I think the whole scheme works better in aggregate than if you single out individual games.
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Old 12-22-2014, 11:33 PM   #9
Hootie Hootie is offline
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Sadly

us backing into the playoffs that year is probably my fondest Chiefs memory

that or the Keith Cash spike into Buddy Ryan sign

but

when that happened

I was ****ing 8
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Old 12-22-2014, 11:54 PM   #10
Aries Walker Aries Walker is offline
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Old 12-22-2014, 11:57 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Lane View Post
Model is crap if it says 72% chance we beat San Diego. Maybe 72% they beat us.
No Keenan Allen for the Chargers, and it's at Arrowhead.
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Old 12-23-2014, 12:02 AM   #12
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All rivers has to do is score 3 tds.
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Old 12-23-2014, 12:05 AM   #13
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All rivers has to do is score 3 tds.
That's a lot of points.
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Old 12-23-2014, 12:07 AM   #14
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That's a lot of points.
It sure looks like a lot.
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Old 12-23-2014, 12:08 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by Dave Lane View Post
Model is crap if it says 72% chance we beat San Diego. Maybe 72% they beat us.
Didn't we already beat them in SD?
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