Mellinger: Alex Smith is out of excuses, and he needs to deliver his best season

[DaFace]

Though I know this thread will undoubtedly turn into yet another Alex Smith sucks bitch fest, I thought this was a well-thought-out and reasonable take on the entire Alex Smith situation.

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt...#storylink=cpy

Alex Smith is out of excuses, and he needs to deliver the best season of his career
BY SAM MELLINGER
smellinger@kcstar.com

Alex Smith can thank the position he plays and the Royals’ run to last year’s World Series, because by now there is no question that his name is the easiest way to start an argument in Kansas City.

Smith is the Chiefs’ quarterback, and three years into his time here, he understands the baggage that comes with that title. He is the eighth backup from somewhere else to start for the Chiefs in the 37 years since they won a game with a quarterback they drafted. He is, depending on how you do the math, the sixth primary quarterback in the 21 years since the Chiefs won a game in the playoffs.

There are those of us who think Smith is a good quarterback. Not great, mind you, but smart and talented in ways that can be accentuated with the right pieces around him.

And there are those of you who think Smith is a noodle-armed, overly risk-averse anvil with a fittingly dull name — a dud at the most important position in American sports.

Those of us on Team Alex like to talk nuance, and bring up the fact that he was drafted by the NFL’s equivalent of the 2005 Royals, a franchise that gave him six coordinators and a botched shoulder surgery in seven years. To us, last year with the Chiefs, Smith showed only that it’s hard to play quarterback when the offensive line often resembles a grade-school game of red rover.

Those of you on the other side are beyond sick of all of that, wondering what excuses we’ll come up with now that Smith is surrounded by a dynamic set of playmakers, an improved (if still suspect) line, and (finally) the same coaches for a third straight year.

And, well … on that point we have no comeback. This is an important year for Smith, and for those of us who believe he has the goods.

If Smith does not have the best year of his career, something has gone wrong. If Smith does not have the best year of his career, and Jeremy Maclin has not suffered an injury and the offensive line is better than a year ago, then something has gone wrong with Smith.

A huge chunk of the Chiefs’ success depends on that not happening.

A huge chunk of their success depends on Smith proving he is more than a guy good enough to almost win with.

-----

Alex Smith is about to have the best of his 10 seasons in the NFL because, finally, the context is right.

He should’ve never been the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft. We know that now, and not just because Aaron Rodgers was the second quarterback taken. Smith wasn’t ready. Wasn’t particularly close to ready.

He wasn’t even 21 years old when the 49ers gave him the keys to their disoriented franchise. More reporters covered his first NFL practice than all but his last college game, and the experience spooked him. He admits that now. Says it took years — four, five, maybe more — to get past.

That’s on him. This is where the blame game heats up, so that’s important to say. Smith is not in a position to complain here. He is 31 years old and has been paid well over $60 million during a career that has so far included a 1-2 playoff record. The 49ers should’ve given Smith more support, but he should’ve been better, too.

There have been successes and failures, and he owns the quarterback’s responsibility for both. But he has never been in a position this teed up for success. Not even those last few seasons in San Francisco, when he came within a freak special-teams mistake of the Super Bowl one year and the next season was benched after returning from a concussion despite leading the league in completion percentage.

In Smith’s first five seasons in San Francisco, he needed a competent organization. In his last two seasons there, he needed one that believed in him.

Here, finally, he has both.

This is why some of us believe he is about to have the best season of his career.

-----

Smith’s strengths are mostly subtle and widely misunderstood. He brings an element of certainty in a game defined by chaos. His quick feet, good instincts on when to break the pocket, and knack for avoiding the hardest collisions are particularly helpful as the Chiefs try to sort out the offensive line.

Game manager has become an overused and somewhat ambiguous term in football, but part of what makes evaluating Smith difficult is that there are not a lot of plays on either extreme. For the most part, he does not throw the boneheaded interception. For the most part, he does not create touchdowns from his own awesomeness. He is more Muzak than Metallica.

But the strengths are there, and not just in the sense that — particularly with Jamaal Charles, Travis Kelce, Jeremy Maclin and a potentially great defense — avoiding mistakes is a terrific thing.

There was a play last year in Arizona, where Smith ran away from a sack, creating extra time, and threw on the run into a window that hadn’t yet opened. The play probably should’ve been a 6-yard loss. It was a 29-yard gain. It was a terrific play, brilliantly executed, and symbolic in its subtlety.

The window does not exist when Smith makes this pass. pic.twitter.com/mAO8R2l9uH

— KC Star Sports GIFs (@KCStarGifs) September 10, 2015

But Smith’s biggest strength is accuracy. At the wonderful Pro Football Focus, they calculate accuracy percentage by taking away drops, spikes, and throw-aways. In their calculations, Smith was at 79.8 percent last season, behind only Drew Brees.

Now, some of that, yes, is a lack of downfield passing. No quarterback threw deep less often than Smith last year. It is an acknowledged point of improvement, both by Smith and Reid.

This is where those of us who believe in Smith are on the hook this year. Because a large part of believing in Smith means believing that his hesitancy to throw deep is at least as much about what he’s been surrounded by.

It’s not just about the offensive line — you need time to throw deep. It’s also about the receivers. Smith has not had receivers capable of getting open down the field, or receivers he fully trusts.

It’s interesting that when Jason Avant signed with the Chiefs late last season, Smith seemed to trust him immediately. Avant is a respected veteran, but he was also cut by the Panthers and turned 32 this year. Still, Smith took chances with Avant that he had not taken before.

A risky deep ball, because Smith trusts the guy he's throwing to. pic.twitter.com/lSiuBaN5at

— KC Star Sports GIFs (@KCStarGifs) September 10, 2015

There are reasons to believe that Maclin can have a much bigger impact. Training camp, practices, and preseason games have been full of examples of Smith focusing on Maclin. Smith seems willing to make throws to Maclin that he hasn’t made to anyone in Kansas City.

Here's a touchdown that didn't exist last year, because Smith didn't have a receiver good enough to make this play. pic.twitter.com/6o8TqyoWxV

— KC Star Sports GIFs (@KCStarGifs) September 10, 2015

This is just practice and practice games, of course, so the consequences of failure are negligible. But common sense lines up with what we’ve seen.

Smith is conservative by nature, and he’s not all of the sudden turning into Brett Favre. But he doesn’t need to. The Chiefs don’t want that. They just need him to be willing to gamble a little more knowing he has better cards and a better understanding of what’s around him than at any point in his career.

Which is why this has to be the year.

-----

One of the problems with the argument about Alex Smith is that, like most arguments in politics and marriage, we all tend to cherry pick points without really listening to the other side.

But one of the tenets of Team Alex is a recognition of the reality that he is the best the Chiefs can do. He is not Aaron Rodgers, but he is not Matt Cassel, either. If the Chiefs had the first pick in 2012, instead of 2013, Smith would be somewhere else and Kansas City would be obsessed with Andrew Luck.

But, like a B student who has to study a little harder on the SAT, teams without that top-tier franchise quarterback have to work a little harder on the rest of the roster. In that way, Smith is in the best position of his career.

Assuming the offensive line is improved, there is more than enough around Smith for him to shake the notion that he is holding back the bigger cause. Those of us on his side of Kansas City’s biggest sports debate are counting on that.

If it doesn’t happen this year, we’re all out of excuses.

[duncan_idaho]

I hope Alex Smith takes a big step forward and has his best season.

I fear he will be the same old Alex Smith - up-and-down. Alternating between teasing the ability to make that leap, and frustrating with his unwillingness to slide in the pocket or consistently challenge the intermediate and deep zones of the defense.

[Pablo]

Shit or get off the pot. Nice article.

[19now11]

Originally Posted by KCUnited

I guess I'm not aware of a botched shoulder surgery. What's that about?

he seperated his shoulder and had to have surgery. once he recovered he went back in but was playing in pain. nolan publicly called him a pussy and benched him. come to find out the surgen somehow left a wire in there that sawed back through the bone while he was trying to play. another surgery was needed and alex lost some zip on his ball. on a side note...is it me or is this server lag out alot?

[Molitoth]

The window does not exist when Smith makes this pass. pic.twitter.com/mAO8R2l9uH

Yeah, that is nice.... guess what? Good QB's make that pass at least once a game... not 1 highlight per season.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Molitoth

Yeah, that is nice.... guess what? Good QB's make that pass at least once a game... not 1 highlight per season.

We scored 14 points in that game...but good on Alex for that pass.

[DJ's left nut]

Mellinger is right.

It's shit or get off the pot time for Smith. If this isn't an 11+ win football team this year, then they need to seriously look at the draft for the possibility of an escape plan in 2017 (and really, he could have a good season and it is still a good idea to look at a succession plan for when they need to pay for Poe and Kelce).

They could even consider trading Smith in 2016 if the right deal came along but if they're looking to move him, it stands to reason his season wasn't one that would serve to create much trade value for him. Ultimately the acceleration of his signing bonus onto our cap would hurt, but not be crippling. However, his salary for 2016 is guaranteed so the only way to move on would be by trade, taking us off the hook for the guaranteed salary.

That said, I still think he has a career year.

[Rivermike87]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Mellinger is right.

It's shit or get off the pot time for Smith. If this isn't an 11+ win football team this year, then they need to seriously look at the draft for the possibility of an escape plan in 2017 (and really, he could have a good season and it is still a good idea to look at a succession plan for when they need to pay for Poe and Kelce).

They could even consider trading Smith in 2016 if the right deal came along but if they're looking to move him, it stands to reason his season wasn't one that would serve to create much trade value for him. Ultimately the acceleration of his signing bonus onto our cap would hurt, but not be crippling. However, his salary for 2016 is guaranteed so the only way to move on would be by trade, taking us off the hook for the guaranteed salary.

That said, I still think he has a career year.

So 11+ wins and he gets to stay? Sounds kind of unfair don't you think? However I could definitely see them win that many games. Considering what we've seen from the past from this team, they are only getting better and better. Being a 9-7 team last year wth what they had to go through only strengthens my optimism for this year. 11-5 sounds bout right to me. Don't think I have ever seen the Chiefs have a complete team like this

[jonzie04]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Mellinger is right.

It's shit or get off the pot time for Smith. If this isn't an 11+ win football team this year, then they need to seriously look at the draft for the possibility of an escape plan in 2017 (and really, he could have a good season and it is still a good idea to look at a succession plan for when they need to pay for Poe and Kelce).

They could even consider trading Smith in 2016 if the right deal came along but if they're looking to move him, it stands to reason his season wasn't one that would serve to create much trade value for him. Ultimately the acceleration of his signing bonus onto our cap would hurt, but not be crippling. However, his salary for 2016 is guaranteed so the only way to move on would be by trade, taking us off the hook for the guaranteed salary.

That said, I still think he has a career year.

Agree with everything here.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Rivermike87

So 11+ wins and he gets to stay? Sounds kind of unfair don't you think? However I could definitely see them win that many games. Considering what we've seen from the past from this team, they are only getting better and better. Being a 9-7 team last year wth what they had to go through only strengthens my optimism for this year. 11-5 sounds bout right to me. Don't think I have ever seen the Chiefs have a complete team like this

My position on Alex Smith has always been clear - he makes your team exactly as good as it is.

He's not Aaron Rodgers, who makes it better. He's not Matt Cassel, who makes it worse.

If you took the Chiefs and every other team in the league, subtracted the quarterbacks and were asked to rank order them, is there any argument at all that the Chiefs are at least a top 5 team by that metric? I don't think so - the talent on this team is immense.

You're right, I could be being unfair, but my general perception of the NFL 'bell curve' is that every year there 4-5 teams that win 12+ games and another 2-3 that win 11.

So if I'm right and Alex Smith truly is a guy who makes your team exactly as good as it is and I believe that the Chiefs are a top 5 team quarterback excluded, then 11 wins should be a fair expectation.

By season's end it's possible he could have played well and we end up at 10 wins; I'd still deal with that. But anything less has to be seen as an unqualified failure for Alex Smith and a definite sign that he's not a quarterback that can take this team anywhere meaningful.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

My position on Alex Smith has always been clear - he makes your team exactly as good as it is.

He's not Aaron Rodgers, who makes it better. He's not Matt Cassel, who makes it worse.

If you took the Chiefs and every other team in the league, subtracted the quarterbacks and were asked to rank order them, is there any argument at all that the Chiefs are at least a top 5 team by that metric? I don't think so - the talent on this team is immense.

You're right, I could be being unfair, but my general perception of the NFL 'bell curve' is that every year there 4-5 teams that win 12+ games and another 2-3 that win 11.

So if I'm right and Alex Smith truly is a guy who makes your team exactly as good as it is and I believe that the Chiefs are a top 5 team quarterback excluded, then 11 wins should be a fair expectation.

By season's end it's possible he could have played well and we end up at 10 wins; I'd still deal with that. But anything less has to be seen as an unqualified failure for Alex Smith and a definite sign that he's not a quarterback that can take this team anywhere meaningful.

I'm not throwing stones, I legitimately want to know because I respect your opinion, but where are you at on injuries?

Jamaal Charles, Justin Houston, a myriad of other dudes missing serious time changes the equation significantly. Worst case scenario, Charles goes down, misses 8 games, and the narrative is that Alex didn't have his best weapon. Where does your evaluation of him stand then?

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

I'm not throwing stones, I legitimately want to know because I respect your opinion, but where are you at on injuries?

Jamaal Charles, Justin Houston, a myriad of other dudes missing serious time changes the equation significantly. Worst case scenario, Charles goes down, misses 8 games, and the narrative is that Alex didn't have his best weapon. Where does your evaluation of him stand then?

On the other side, is 11+ wins always good enough? It depends on what you define as a good season. Alex haters are going to be ridiculously unreasonable. Alex homers are going to be ridiculously apologetic.

I don't care about winning games if they're done the wrong way. Last 2 years are funny examples. In 2013, we won 9 games despite Alex (easy schedule, defense bailed him out most games) yet went 2-5 in games where Alex played some of the best football in his Chiefs' career but the D laid a big goose egg. In 2014, he was a huge reason for the Chiefs going 7-1 during their hot streak, but was also a huge reason for the Chiefs going 1-5 the other miserable stretch.

My criteria for Alex has always been simple... if you're going to manage games, you better convert third downs and close games. If you open up the offense, you have a lot more leniency on those 2 points.

[O.city]

There's no wrong way to win games. Just win.

[jonzie04]

Originally Posted by O.city

There's no wrong way to win games. Just win.

If that was the case, Denver would be trotting out Tim Tebow on Sunday, and The Patriots would have let Brady walk in 2008 when they won all those games with Matt Cassel.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by O.city

There's no wrong way to win games. Just win.

If the winning isn't sustainable, then it's the wrong way to win. 2013 was a great example of that. The defense put up an all-world performance and then stopped doing it. Alex Smith then became a different QB.

The question I keep asking is, why does Alex wait or his defense to suck to step up as a QB? If we're treating this as a "put up or shut up" year for Alex, I don't consider it success if we're winning too many games the wrong way. That is, games where we shit the bed on third downs and in a close game, our offense keeps going 3 and out in the 4th quarter and relies on our defense to make stop after stop. Even if we win games that way, that doesn't make me at all confident that Smith is the right QB.

[Deberg_1990]

3400 yards, 23 TDs and 11 picks