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02-13-2016, 01:12 AM | |
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***Official 2016 STL Cardinals Thread***
http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/02/12/win...ouis-cardinals 2015 III thread: http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=295296 2015 II thread: http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=293412 2015 I thread: http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=289085 Last edited by BigRedChief; 03-30-2016 at 04:18 PM.. |
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07-21-2016, 09:10 AM | #1561 | |
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If Weaver could come up and give us what Lynn did in 2011, that would be a big boost. Oh may just be able to keep the 9th, but would you really trust him with a post-season game on the line? Or 4 of them for that matter? Broxton's a gas can and I don't know how Siegrist can raise his arm above his head at this point. Maness is throwing BP these days and Rosenthal is Rosenthal. Worse still, given the cost of relief pitching and the very long odds of us actually accomplishing anything meaningful in October, I'm damn sure not looking to pay what it would take for legitimate reinforcements. Oh yeah, and it's still an average defensive team on its best days. What better salve for a spotty bullpen than a leaky defense? Honestly, I still don't think they'll even make the post-season. But even if they do, I don't seem them making it out of the NLDS. Every team they might face is better than they are.
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07-21-2016, 11:55 AM | #1562 | |
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You are so right about the movement, he is almost like having a good knuckle baller on your staff. I think it is important to have some diversity in your starting staff, if they all are clones it is easier for hitters to adjust day to day. Herzog used to bench Hendrick against Neikro because he felt like he was messed up for the next few days. |
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07-21-2016, 12:01 PM | #1563 | |
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Rosenthal needs to go to the minors, work as a starter and develop confidence in secondary pitches. Find even one that is off speed he can throw consistently for a strike and he likely can become a closer again, possibly dominant. Look at what Seigrist said today. He is getting more confident with his hook which has changed the way hitters (particularly lefties who were teeing off on him last year) approach him. Last year they ignored his slider and waited on the fastball. Drop a 12/6 duece first or second pitch for a strike it changes everything. |
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07-21-2016, 12:11 PM | #1564 | |
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People forget that Weaver entered his JR year as a consensus top 10 pick with an outside shot at making himself the first college pitcher drafted. Then he regressed. He lost some velocity and appeared to be guiding the ball. Well the Cards thought they saw some stuff they could fix, worked at it last year and appear to have unleashed him on an unsuspecting world this season. Suddenly he's evidently back to working at 95 mph and touching 97. More critically, he's K rate has rocketed back up in a very hitter-friendly league. I don't think it's fair to say he's a guy with a #3 ceiling anymore. He probably doesn't project to be a true ace, but I see no reason to say that his ceiling is any more limited than Martinez's at this point. If he's truly working in the mid-high 90s and it's not just a hot gun, there's no reason that he can't be a fringe #1, high end #2 if his development continues a bit. The kid's still only 22 and has a nice long frame that could probably support additional weight. He appears to have unlearned whatever got him in a bit of trouble as a junior at FSU and may be the best overall prospect we have at this point. I will concede that I mis-fired on this kid. I saw a potential back of the rotation arm who needed to develop a breaking ball and would probably keep losing velocity until he settled into a Jeff Suppan kinda career. He definitely looks to be headed the other direction.
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07-21-2016, 12:20 PM | #1565 | |
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07-21-2016, 01:16 PM | #1566 |
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My Florida buddies accept your apology.
Better ceiling and prospect than Reyes? GTFO!
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07-21-2016, 01:33 PM | #1567 | |
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Whatever Weaver's ceiling is, I'd say his chances of hitting it are above average. Moreover, if he doesn't hit it, wouldn't you say that his floor is probably still a 4-5 starter? If his fastball's a mirage or his breaker doesn't finish developing depth/shape, then you get what Michael Wacha presently is, no? Whereas is Reyes can't learn to !@#$ing throw strikes, what is he? Sam Tuivialala? He absolutely has to stop walking everyone and pitching from behind in the count. He's of no use to anyone right now if he can't even get basic control, let alone command in the zone. When you look at the respective worst case scenarios as well as the fact that Weaver's development arc's been pretty steady as opposed to the jags we've seen in Reyes, there's a chance that Weaver's the better prospect on balance. I'd need more for Reyes in trade than Weaver because I'm a sucker for upside, but if you put a 'projected WAR over the next 6 seasons' on both of them, I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the year, Weaver's is slightly better given the volatility in Reyes's projections.
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07-21-2016, 01:34 PM | #1568 | |
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The list of people I have snowed isn't terribly long to begin with. I fear it was just reduced by a third.
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07-21-2016, 02:53 PM | #1569 | |
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I have been so impressed with Carlos the last few starts all around. He seems to be putting it all together. Poise even when he doesn't have his best stuff. The willingness and ability to get quicker outs. That sinker he through for the strike out later in the game at 98 yesterday had utterly sick movement. |
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07-21-2016, 03:12 PM | #1570 |
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07-21-2016, 03:15 PM | #1571 | |
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He pitches a little across his body and from that arm slot, he just gets vile armside run even when he's working around 97 mph. Then to take that pitch, subtract 10 mph from it and give it the kind of drop he got on it (at least on that occasion) and it was just impossible. There was no way to not swing at it, no way to actually make contact with it. Your best hope would've been to have a stroke as he was delivering it and just fall down in the box, then pray that it floats out of the zone. I don't think Weaver ever gets that kind of movement, but then again, for most guys that kind of movement comes at a cost (like I said, Carlos has to throw across his body to do it and that almost always yields an eventual breakdown). Weaver's much thinner than Lynn ever was. He actually reminds me a bit of Greinke - very long and lean but as Greinke matured, he probably added about 20 lbs. He was still on the slight side, but at least his uniform fit. Weaver could do the same and maybe the added strength will make up for the inevitable velocity loss that comes with simply throwing pitches at this level.
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07-21-2016, 03:17 PM | #1572 |
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Yeah, but you're gullible.
I'll have you convinced again soon enough. I'll start talking about pitch sequencing and string luck and shit like that and you'll just lap it up. Oh sure, it will be complete gibberish and be used completely out of context, but you won't know any better. Dentists....they're like osteopaths, but somehow lazier and more credulous.
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07-21-2016, 03:25 PM | #1573 | |
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07-21-2016, 03:38 PM | #1574 |
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Can you guys dumb it down a shade?
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07-21-2016, 04:00 PM | #1575 | |
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I was worried about Martinez once I saw him in person too, I just hope he has one of those gifted arms that sometimes defy what normally tears someone apart. I think for him if he puts on weight it will actually hurt him, I think he gets enough push with his legs that his whipping motion, even across his body is less stressful than someone who is not as athletic. I wasn't clear about Weaver and Lynn, I meant that if he had a frame like Lynn it wouldn't have surprised me to see a jump in his stuff. Bigger frame guys often you expect to see their velocity tick up as they mature, but smaller, lighter guys not as much. I worried about Weaver early that he was a kid who was max effort on each pitch and he wouldn't be able to sustain it. It seems like that was a wrong assumption, which I will gladly hope continues to be so because it looks like Wacha has started to show more like his floor than the ceiling he was projecting early on. I think Wacha is now #3 ceiling. When I watched him in the 2013 NL Championship game live, I thought he was can't miss #2, and a good chance at a solid ace, even CY Young contender. It looked just that easy for him. |
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