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01-20-2013, 08:13 AM | |
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Geno Smith: A Tale in Accuracy
Geno Smith: A Tale in Accuracy
By JayhawksNChiefs on Jan 10, 4:04p 422 http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2013/1...le-in-accuracy Justin K. Aller I’m not going to sit here and say that I can predict the future, because I can’t. But I’m pretty sure what the talk on AP will be about for roughly the next three months. There will be an endless discussion (which will end in 3 months) on what the Chiefs are going to do with the number 1 overall pick in the 2013 NFL draft. While perusing through the limitless comments on AP, one voice prevails through the masses. That voice says, "Draft Geno Smith." The numbers are impressive. In his career, Mr. Smith threw for 11,662 yards, tallied up 98 touchdowns to only 21 interceptions, and completed 67% of the passes that left his hand. But, many believe those impressive stats are a result of the system he played in. Short screen passes and two explosive receivers that warrant draft talk of their own undoubtedly could inflate any QBs success. After going through the AP scouting process (YouTube), many can form their own opinion of what they like and don’t like. Depending on the observer, things like arm strength, footwork, poise, accuracy, release, and pocket awareness can all be discerned from prospect to prospect. Opinions are formed and debates ensue on exactly what each prospect can offer. It was my attempt, in this post, to stray from this type of analysis. I wanted something more objective. You can show 10 different people tape of Geno throwing the ball and you will get 10 different opinions. Some may be similar, but all will vary in one degree or another. Specifically, I wanted to tackle the debate on Geno’s accuracy. As stated earlier in the post, Geno has a very impressive career completion percentage, one that he was able to increase every year as a starter. Also stated earlier, this percentage is said to be due, in large part, to the short and "easy" passes that he was asked to make. To explore this idea, I observed 8 games from Geno’s 2012 campaign. Those games were Texas, Texas Tech, Maryland, Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Kansas. I used the YouTube videos of Geno Smith vs. insert opponent here in my research. The goal of this research was relatively simple. One comment in particular sparked the idea when a user stated that, "90% of his passes were screen passes." Well AP, were they? I present the following chart: via i1257.photobucket.com As I watched the games, I charted where each completion and incompletion were in regard to the line of scrimmage. It didn’t matter where the receiver ended up, all that mattered is where he caught it or attempted to catch it. After completing 8 games and 300 throws, I felt I had an adequate and representative sample size. The double lines running down the middle of the chart can pretty much be thought of as the hash marks on a football field. With the exception, for example, that sometimes the ball can be located on the right hash pre-snap and a pass will be completed with the receiver going over the middle. The receiver might catch it outside of the hash marks, but for all intents and purposes it was a pass over the middle. I thought this better represented the types of throws that he was either missing or hitting. The “NLOS” (Near Line of Scrimmage) is any pass that is generally within 3 yards of the LOS (i.e. screens, swing passes, and maybe a few shallow drag routes). The “4 to 9” section refers to passes that were completed/attempted within 4 to 9 yards of the line of scrimmage (usually outs, ins, and slants). The farther up the chart you go, the farther the passes were from the LOS. From there, I think most get the idea. To give an example on how to read the chart, the bottom left section describes that Geno completed 41 of 46 passes (89.1%) that were directed to his left and were near the line of scrimmage. The far right column gives totals for each “level.” Interesting Notes:
The overall results of the research seem promising. Initially, I defined 15 parts of the field. I had 5 levels of the defense separated by 3 sections. Through my evaluation, Geno was able to effectively attack each of these 15 parts. Not all equally, but he made the defense account for the whole field. Do the screens inflate his completion percentage? Yes, but those passes are hardly a given… cough*Matt Cassel to Eric Weddle*cough. The percentage of those he completes is beyond impressive by itself (88%). And those passes can travel around 20 yards in the air, at times. The only way those plays work are to get the ball there very quickly and very accurately, which Geno does nearly robotically. I was a Geno Smith fan before I put this together, and this did nothing but confirm my thoughts on him. I have nothing to compare these numbers to, so I’m thinking about doing a similar evaluation on a couple of the other quarterback prospects. In the end, I hope people find this interesting and can find a way to use this information in their own evaluations. |
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01-20-2013, 12:23 PM | #31 | |
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01-20-2013, 12:26 PM | #32 |
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I wouldn't mind Tavon coming to KC too and bringing that sweet YAC with him as well.
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01-20-2013, 12:27 PM | #33 | |
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I think it's good evidence, but not necessarily proof of that type of accuracy. |
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01-20-2013, 12:30 PM | #34 |
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The thing about YAC when it came to Geno was that he did have one of, if not the most electric YAC WR in the nation this year and during his career. Tavon Austin was always there. WV used plenty of slip screens and underneath routes to get Austin open in space. What OC wouldn't want to just get the ball into the hands of Austin?
As good as Austin and Bailey were, Geno also did his part, and his OL was pretty poor this year. One thing I'm interested in seeing is what Geno can do with a big 6'2 or 6'3 WR in the NFL. He's never had a a big guy to throw to so he's had to be a little more accurate with his ball placement. |
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01-20-2013, 12:31 PM | #35 |
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Its anecdotal evidence certainly. I dont think there is a good way to tie YAC and ball placement together scientifically, just because of the variables involved in catching and running. From ball position/height/rotation/angle/air speed/defender position/receiver speed/hand size/ on and on and on.
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01-20-2013, 12:35 PM | #36 |
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This is why Geno should be drafted. I think people make off base comparisons to this guy and that guy... but really what sets Geno apart is his accuracy. You put him in a system that plays to his strengths and do it well, he is remarkably accurate.
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01-20-2013, 12:36 PM | #37 |
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Exactly. WCO is all about short/mid routes with some over the top stuff to mix it up. Geno is perfect for us.. its DESTINY
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01-20-2013, 12:36 PM | #38 | |
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His decision-making seems great. His arm seems average to a hair above average. Leadership/smarts and that type of accuracy are going to be, IMO, what separates him. |
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01-20-2013, 12:45 PM | #39 | |
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Still, this evidence is anecdotal. But, when you are talking about something that is an extremely complex art form, open to interpretation, that is really the best you have to work with. |
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01-20-2013, 12:48 PM | #40 | |
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01-20-2013, 12:57 PM | #41 |
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I appreciate the effort of the OP, but he does not tell me which passes were defensed effectively and whether it was or was not a result of poor placement by the QB. To me, those are very important pieces to the eval and that is what makes Geno attractive to any pass offense, is his consistency in getting the ball right where it needs to be for his WR's.
I've watched enough on Geno to see he is going to need to adjust his reads a bit in the NFL because defenders are much faster, more creative in coverage and will jump routes on some passes he'd normally get away with in college. But this is true of any QB -- college is one thing, the NFL is something else. He does have some issues he will need to improve on right away, and some of them are his footwork. It's been said, he does look down his guys sometimes too, he will need to become better at "hat str8, eyes moving". Not a big deal. Now the one thing he needs to get better at is pocket awareness -- he tends to lose track of pressure at times. This one is big. He doesn't have the natural footwork to ascape easily and that can be dealt with using your scheme/play calling during certain situations where you know the defense is going to pin their ears back and go at him. But he's a tall guy, has that high release and I think a good coach can help him handle himself better as a QB under pressure.
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01-20-2013, 12:58 PM | #42 |
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01-20-2013, 01:22 PM | #43 | |
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01-20-2013, 01:29 PM | #44 | |
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01-20-2013, 01:38 PM | #45 | |
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