MMQB: Analytics and the NFL: Finding Strength in Numbers

[OnTheWarpath15]

Really good read from Albert Breer.

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/06/27/n...ies-chip-kelly

A few things that stood out...

4. Conversely, the value of the data in those areas is proven in that nearly the entire NFL has subscribed to Stats LLC and/or Pro Football Focus, and some rely on smaller services, like Pro Scout Inc., which is run by 64-year-old former Utah coach Mike Giddings.

Cincinnati-based Pro Football Focus now lists 27 teams as clients, and founder Neil Hornsby says, “I’d be surprised if we haven’t got 32 of 32 by next season, if not this season.” Similarly, Stats LLC has 26 teams as subscribers. The reason? It’s a way to become more efficient and guard against missing anything, even if you’re still not sure how to use all the numbers.

There is one team that has a club exec who heads up data collection. He’ll call his head coach into his office and hand the data to him. But the report never makes it to the coach’s desk, only out to the hallway where, between the two offices, there is a trashcan.

And on the coaching side, it backstops a quality control guy’s work. Most QCs only get through four or five of an opponent’s games in a week’s work of prepping a report. Having the extra data on tendencies, situational play, and use of formations and personnel doesn’t mean that assistant can watch more games. It does mean he can crosscheck his findings from the ones he did see.

“The problem with football, they still base a lot of analysis on the previous four games,” Hornsby says. “So let’s say you’re playing Cincinnati, and you want to look at their tendencies when they’re in base personnel. You might wind up with 40 snaps out of 280. And then you’ll make a judgment. Well, of those 40, how many were on third down? How many came on second down?

“So what do you do if there are say, two or three snaps on second down out of base personnel? You have no option but to guess. What you can do with analytics, you’re growing the base data in areas that really matter.”