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A Saturday analysis of AFC West Drafting in the Dorsey era.
Using data from our friends at profootballreference, I downloaded the 2013-2016 drafts of the four AFC West teams. (I left 2017 out since the only thing we know about those players at this point is that Mahomes is Favre Reincarnated and Bolles is Forrest Gump.)
I then sorted them by where the players were selected in the draft, and compared their "Career Average Value" as calculated by profootballreference. I made one adjustment to the numbers. I took the 2016 players and multiplied their AV by 4, the 2015 players by 2, and the 2014 players by 1.3 so that all players are essentially being measured on a four-year basis. This may understate and/or destabilize the contributions of younger players who have had less time to capture a starting role. I'll cover each round in a post, and I'll split the first round into two parts since there's presumably a bigger talent spread there. In each round I'll list the team, player, pick#, Adjusted CarAV, and position. So let's start with the top half of Round 1. Here are the players who were selected along with their Adjusted Career AV. Code:
Team Player Pick Adjusted CarAV Pos KC Eric Fisher 1 27 T SD Joey Bosa 3 24 DE Oak Amari Cooper 4 38 WR Oak Khalil Mack 5 48 LB SD D.J. Fluker 11 29 T Oak D.J. Hayden 12 10 DB Oak Karl Joseph 14 16 S SD Melvin Gordon 15 30 RB Oakland 28 San Diego, er, Los Angeles 28 Kansas City 27 Denver N/A Oakland has had a lot of picks, and have both the best and worst. Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper are the highest rated guys in this group, even though we all know that Cooper is overrated. However, Oakland also has the least productive guys with their two defensive backs. This group is primarily an Oakland and San Diego...er, Los Angeles show. Eric Fisher is the only exception, and he's ranked 5th of the 8 as part of a big clump in the middle. Go to Post 2 for the back half of the round, and then the first several posts work through each subsequent round. Last edited by Rain Man; 06-03-2017 at 08:24 PM.. |
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#2 |
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The back half of the first round is primarily a Denver show in terms of volume due to Peyton Manning's marketing value.
What we see here is that Peters has been a mega-super Mickey Mantle home run. Sylvester Williams has gotten some action, whoever he is, and the rest have been pretty meh. Paxton Lynch aspires to meh. Code:
Team Player Pick Adjusted CarAV Pos KC Marcus Peters 18 46 CB KC Dee Ford 23 15 LB Den Shane Ray 23 16 DE SD Jason Verrett 25 16 DB Den Paxton Lynch 26 4 QB Den Sylv. Williams 28 23 DT Den Bradley Roby 31 11 DB Kansas City 30 San Diego, er, Los Angeles 16 Denver 13 Oakland N/A
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I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit. Last edited by Rain Man; 06-03-2017 at 06:18 PM.. |
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#3 |
NFL's #1 Ermines Fan
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Round 2 is pretty interesting. Derek Carr is the big winner for teams that like emo quarterbacks, and the second-strongest pick is Mitch Morse.
You then drop to Chris Jones (who I suspect will rise), some linebacker for San Diego, and some terrorist for Oakland. The big busts here so far are all Broncos - Cody Lattimer, Montee Ball, Ty Sambrailo, and Adam Gotsis. Sensing that he'd missed a bust in this round, Elway then went out and also got the fifth-worst guy in Menelik Watson. Denver really should bring in a monkey to make their Round 2 picks. Code:
Team Player Pick Adjusted CarAV Pos Oak Mario Edwards 35 10 DT SD Hunter Henry 35 16 TE Oak Derek Carr 36 39 QB KC Chris Jones 37 24 DT SD Manti Te'o 38 14 LB Oak Menelik Watson 42 9 T Oak Jihad Ward 44 20 DE SD Denzel Perryman 48 20 ILB KC Mitch Morse 49 30 G SD Jer. Attaochu 50 11 LB Den Cody Latimer 56 1 WR Den Montee Ball 58 8 RB Den Ty Sambrailo 59 6 T Den Adam Gotsis 63 8 DT Kansas City 27 Oakland 19 San Diego, er, Los Angeles 15 Denver 6
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I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit. Last edited by Rain Man; 06-03-2017 at 06:20 PM.. |
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#4 |
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Round 3.
The big pick here is Travis Kelce, but PFR also likes Oakland's Gabe Jackson and San Diego's, er, Los Angeles' Keenan Allen, who just blew out a knee reading this. A distant fourth is some Denver linebacker I've never heard of. The biggest busts are San Diego's, er, Los Angeles' center Max Tuerk, who somehow provided less value than our own KeiVarae Russell, whose name always takes me six tries to spell. Denver also whiffed with TE Jeff Heuerman. Code:
Team Player Pick Adjusted CarAV Pos KC Travis Kelce 63 27 TE Oak Sio Moore 66 15 LB SD Max Tuerk 66 0 C Oak Clive Walford 68 12 TE KC Kei. Russell 74 4 CB Oak Shil. Calhoun 75 4 DE KC Chris Conley 76 14 WR SD Keenan Allen 76 21 WR Oak Gabe Jackson 81 23 G SD Craig Mager 83 8 CB KC Phillip Gaines 87 7 DB SD Chris Watt 89 5 G Den Kayvon Webster 90 5 DB Den Jeff Heuerman 92 2 TE Den Mi. Schofield 95 17 OL KC Knile Davis 96 10 RB KC Steven Nelson 98 12 CB Den Justin Simmons 98 8 FS Oakland 13 Kansas City 12 San Diego, er, Los Angeles 11 Denver 8
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I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit. Last edited by Rain Man; 06-03-2017 at 06:22 PM.. |
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#5 |
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Starting in Round 4, you expect a lot of low-impact guys so the success factor is finding productive guys. The teams with success here are Devontae Booker (Broncos), Ramik Wilson (Chiefs), Max Garcia (Broncos), and Justin Ellis (Raiders). De'Anthony Thomas and Parker Ehinger are next in line, but notably behind the top four.
Oakland should stop drafting quarterbacks here. Code:
Team Player Pick Adjusted CarAV Pos KC Nico Johnson 99 3 LB Oak Connor Cook 100 0 QB SD Joshua Perry 102 4 ILB KC Parker Ehinger 105 8 G KC Eric Murray 106 4 CB Oak Justin Ellis 107 16 DT Oak Tyler Wilson 112 0 QB Oak Keith McGill 116 4 DB KC Ramik Wilson 118 18 ILB KC De'Ant. Thomas 124 8 RB KC Demar. Robinson 126 0 WR Oak Jon Feliciano 128 6 G Den Max Garcia 133 18 C Den Devontae Booker 136 20 RB Denver 19 Kansas City 7 Oakland 5 San Diego, er, Los Angeles 4
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I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit. Last edited by Rain Man; 06-03-2017 at 06:23 PM.. |
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#6 |
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Round 5. Hmm, what's the pattern here?
Well, there's Tyreek. And then there's everyone else, who add up to about the same value. There's Tyreek at #1. After that, the winners are Oakland with DeAndre Washington, who I've never heard of, San Diego, er, Los Angeles with Jatavis Brown and Kyle Emanuel, and the Chiefs with special teams ace D.J. Alexander. But this round is really all about Tyreek. Code:
Team Player Pick Adjusted CarAV Pos KC Sand. Commings 134 0 DB Oak Ben Heeney 140 6 ILB Oak DeA. Washington 143 16 RB Den Connor McGovern 144 0 G SD Steve Williams 145 4 DB Den Quanterus Smith 146 1 DE SD Kyle Emanuel 153 14 OLB Den Lamin Barrow 156 3 LB Den Tavarres King 161 0 WR Oak Neiron Ball 161 2 OLB KC Kevin Hogan 162 4 QB KC Aaron Murray 163 0 QB Den Lorenzo Doss 164 0 CB KC Tyreek Hill 165 40 WR SD Ryan Carrethers 165 4 DT KC D.J. Alexander 172 10 OLB KC O'Shaughnessy 173 2 TE SD Jatavis Brown 175 16 OLB San Diego, er, Los Angeles 10 Kansas City 9 Oakland 8 Denver 1
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I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit. Last edited by Rain Man; 06-03-2017 at 06:24 PM.. |
Posts: 141,870
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#7 |
NFL's #1 Ermines Fan
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Let's try Round 6 now.
The best Round 6 picks are Zach Fulton of the Chiefs, Latavious Murray of the Raiders, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif of the Chiefs, and Matt Paradis of the Broncos, in that order. Fulton for the win! Code:
Team Player Pick Adjusted CarAV Pos KC Eric Kush 170 3 C Oak Nick Kasa 172 0 TE Den Vinston Painter 173 0 G Den Andy Janovich 176 4 FB KC D.J. White 178 4 CB Oak Max Valles 179 0 OLB SD Drew Kaser 179 12 P SD Tourek Williams 179 5 DE Oak Latavius Murray 181 18 RB Oak Mychal Rivera 184 9 TE SD Darius Philon 192 6 DT KC Zach Fulton 193 21 G Oak Cory James 194 12 OLB SD Derek Watt 198 4 FB KC Duvernay-Tardif 200 17 OL SD Marion Grice 201 0 RB KC Dadi Nicolas 203 4 DE Den Darius Kilgo 203 4 NT KC Braden Wilson 204 0 FB Oak Stacy McGee 205 10 DT Den Matt Paradis 207 16 OL KC R. Nunez-Roches 217 8 DT Den Will Parks 219 4 S Kansas City 8 Oakland 8 Denver 7 San Diego, er, Los Angeles 5
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I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit. Last edited by Rain Man; 06-03-2017 at 08:50 PM.. |
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#8 |
NFL's #1 Ermines Fan
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And finally, we move to Round 7, the land of Denver quarterbacks.
The first thing that jumps out at me is that the Chiefs had only 2 7th-round picks during this period. I'd never noticed that. Obviously, Denver's simian quarterback wins this because, you know, Paxton Lynch. Other guys who have seized their opportunity are some other Denver guys I don't know (Riley Dixon and Corey Nelson), and a couple of Raiders (T.J. Carrie in 2nd overall, along with David Bass and Vadal Alexander). Obviously, though, Catapano will dominate this group once he recovers from that virus. Code:
Team Player Pick Adjusted CarAV Pos KC Mike Catapano 207 3 DE Oak Brice Butler 209 7 WR Oak Anthony Morris 218 0 OL Oak T.J. Carrie 219 12 DB Oak Andre Debose 221 0 WR SD Brad Sorensen 221 0 QB SD Donavon Clark 224 0 G Den Riley Dixon 228 8 P KC Da'Ron Brown 233 0 WR Oak David Bass 233 8 DE Den Zac Dysert 234 0 QB Oak Vadal Alexander 234 8 G Oak Shelby Harris 235 1 DE SD Tevin Reese 240 0 WR Den Corey Nelson 242 8 LB Oak Dexter McDonald 242 0 CB Oak Jon. Dowling 247 0 DB Den Trevor Siemian 250 18 QB Den Taurean Nixon 251 0 DB Den Josh Furman 252 0 DB Denver 5 Oakland 4 Kansas City 2 San Diego, er, Los Angeles 0
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I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit. Last edited by Rain Man; 06-03-2017 at 08:50 PM.. |
Posts: 141,870
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#9 |
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If you add up all of these averages, you can somewhat get a feel of how well each team is drafting. The figure is the total career AV that you'd expect if each team had 7 picks, 1 in each round.
Chiefs - 94 Raiders - 86 Chargers - 67 Broncos - 58 It seems like our long-term competition is going to be the Raiders. The Chiefs and Raiders are both drafting well, while the other two teams are not.
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I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit. |
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#10 | |
Politically Incorrect
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"The only difference between sex for free and sex for money is that sex for free costs you a WHOLE LOT more!" ~Redd Foxx~ ![]() "The men who drafted Patrick Mahomes" ![]() |
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#11 |
MVP
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This is Rain Man's world. We're just living in it.
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#12 |
Always ask 'Why?"
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Rep!
Excellent analysis! How long did it take you compile and produce. Thanks for creating! |
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#13 | |
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Quote:
I really need to cut down on my soda.
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I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit. |
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#14 |
Always ask 'Why?"
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#15 |
Psycho Bag Of Squanch
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Seriously? Wow.
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