NFL Draft ChiefsPlanet's Definitive (TIC) NFL Draft Ratings

patteeu · 05-02-2011, 10:11 PM

I've rated every NFL team's draft and ranked them according to how they compare to a couple of pre-draft mocks. The two mocks I used were the Official ChiefsPlanet Mock (created by the collective brilliance of our local draft junkies and the WalterFootball mock (which is easy to find online for free, unlike Mayock's or Gosselin's).

I also used a revised version of the draft value chart (DVC) found on the WalterFootball site.

Methodology:

Every play drafted is assigned a "cost" based on the value assigned to his draft position by the DVC. He's also assigned a "value" based on his position in each of the mocks. The team that drafted that player then gets a score based on the difference between his cost and his value. A positive score indicates a "steal" and a negative score indicates a "reach".

For example, consider DeMarco Murray:

He's taken 64th overall in the Official ChiefsPlanet Mock for a "value" of 452.

He's taken 91st overall in the WalterFootball Mock for a "value" of 290.

In the real NFL Draft, he's taken by Dallas with the 71st overall pick for a "cost" of 396.

Compared to the Official ChiefsPlanet Mock, Dallas gets a score of 452-396= +56

Compared to the WalterFootball Mock, Dallas gets a score of 290-396= -106

The team's overall score is calculated by adding the scores from each of it's draft picks. The higher the score, the better the draft.

Results using the Official ChiefsPlanet Mock:

Code:

01. Tampa Bay Buccaneers  2347.5
02. New Orleans Saints    1738.5
03. New York Giants       1555.0
04. Kansas City Chiefs    1022.0
05. Cincinnatti Bengals    332.0
06. Jacksonville Jaguars   306.0
07. Minnesota Vikings      287.0
08. Green Bay Packers      248.0
09. Arizona Cardinals      217.5
10. Detroit Lions          197.5
11. Pittsburgh Steelers    170.0
12. Chicago Bears           90.5
13. Washington Redskins    -28.0
14. Indianapolis Colts     -80.5
15. Baltimore Ravens      -126.0
16. Atlanta Falcons       -174.0
17. Oakland Raiders       -199.0
18. New England Patriots  -216.5
19. New York Jets         -271.0
20. Tennessee Titans      -307.0
21. Houston Texans        -308.5
22. St. Louis Rams        -410.5
23. Dallas Cowboys        -696.0
24. Miami Dolphins        -805.0
25. Denver Broncos        -851.0
26. San Diego Chargers    -926.0
27. Cleveland Browns     -1091.0
28. Buffalo Bills        -1167.5
29. Seattle Seahawks     -1188.5
30. San Francisco 49ers  -1291.5
31. Philadelphia Eagles  -1478.0
32. Carolina Panthers    -1524.0

Results using WalterFootball Mock:

Code:

01. New York Giants       1960.0
02. New Orleans Saints     999.5
03. Green Bay Packers      739.0
04. Pittsburgh Steelers    680.0
05. New York Jets          432.5
06. Baltimore Ravens       284.5
07. Kansas City Chiefs     203.0
08. Tampa Bay Buccaneers   192.5
09. Chicago Bears          115.5
10. St. Louis Rams          99.5
11. Atlanta Falcons         92.0
12. Indianapolis Colts      26.0
13. Miami Dolphins          22.0
14. Cincinnatti Bengals    -25.5
15. Jacksonville Jaguars   -27.0
16. Minnesota Vikings      -49.0
17. Carolina Panthers     -105.5
18. Oakland Raiders       -169.5
19. Arizona Cardinals     -205.5
20. Detroit Lions         -220.5
21. Denver Broncos        -224.5
22. Houston Texans        -300.5
23. Washington Redskins   -358.0
24. Tennessee Titans      -462.0
25. Cleveland Browns      -472.5
26. Dallas Cowboys        -539.0
27. San Francisco 49ers   -586.0
28. Buffalo Bills         -641.0
29. Seattle Seahawks      -681.5
30. Philadelphia Eagles   -694.5
31. New England Patriots -1049.0
32. San Diego Chargers   -1087.0

T-post Tom · 05-02-2011, 10:13 PM

He blinded me with math. Interesting.

patteeu · 05-02-2011, 10:21 PM

A couple of notes:

1. Obviously these results would change if a different mock was used or if a different version of the Draft Value Chart was used.

2. I did a similar calculation for the AFC West teams using the WalterFootball Mock in this thread. The results differ from that analysis slightly because I used a revised version of the Draft Value Chart here instead of the older version that I used in that thread.

3. The WalterFootball Mock came out right before the NFL draft. The Official ChiefsPlanet Mock was put together in March. The impact of this time difference can be seen in the values of players who either rose or dropped on the basis of late information. The most obvious and significant of these was the Da'Quan Bowers leg injury. He was taken 2nd overall in the Official ChiefsPlanet Mock whereas he was taken 24th overall in the WalterFootball Mock. Since New Orleans took him with the 51st pick, they get credit for a big steal in the WalterFootball analysis (+405 pts) but it's nothing compared to the steal they get credited for in the Official ChiefsPlanet Mock analysis (+2230 pts).

4. There were more picks in the draft than the Draft Value Chart covered so I decreased the value of each pick beyond the range of the DVC by 0.5 pts.

**wazu** · 05-02-2011, 10:24 PM

Very cool. Mind posting the detail behind the Chiefs numbers?

patteeu · 05-02-2011, 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Adam

Very cool. Mind posting the detail behind the Chiefs numbers?

Here you go:

Code:

Kansas City Chiefs                          CP       WF
1 (26)  Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh  -100.0   -345.0
2 (55)  Rodney Hudson, C, Florida State    -46.0    -20.0
3 (70)  Justin Houston, LB, Georgia        746.0    -29.0
3 (86)  Allen Bailey, DE, Miami            265.0    345.0
4 (118) Jalil Brown, DB, Colorado         -113.0    -36.0
5 (135) Ricky Stanzi, QB, Iowa             106.0    253.0
5 (140) Gabe Miller, LB, Oregon State      -98.0    -98.0
6 (199) Jerrell Powe, NT, Mississippi      282.5    153.5
7 (223) Shane Bannon, RB, Yale             -20.5    -20.5
                                          1022.0    203.0

ReynardMuldrake · 05-03-2011, 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patteeu

Here you go:

Code:

Kansas City Chiefs                          CP       WF
1 (26)  Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh  -100.0   -345.0
2 (55)  Rodney Hudson, C, Florida State    -46.0    -20.0
3 (70)  Justin Houston, LB, Georgia        746.0    -29.0
3 (86)  Allen Bailey, DE, Miami            265.0    345.0
4 (118) Jalil Brown, DB, Colorado         -113.0    -36.0
5 (135) Ricky Stanzi, QB, Iowa             106.0    253.0
5 (140) Gabe Miller, LB, Oregon State      -98.0    -98.0
6 (199) Jerrell Powe, NT, Mississippi      282.5    153.5
7 (223) Shane Bannon, RB, Yale             -20.5    -20.5
                                          1022.0    203.0

Why is there such a huge discrepancy for Houston?

**notorious** · 05-03-2011, 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by warispeace

Why is there such a huge discrepancy for Houston?

We adore him, they don't.

patteeu · 05-03-2011, 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by warispeace

Why is there such a huge discrepancy for Houston?

Because he was taken 20th overall in the Official CP Mock whereas he didn't go until the 3rd round in reality. WalterFootball had him going in the 3rd round just a few picks after the spot the Chiefs took him. This is probably another case like that of Da'Quan Bowers where late information (about his failed drug test at the combine in this case) caused a re-evaluation of his value. That re-evaluation is reflected in the WalterFootball Mock, but not in the CP Mock.

The way I'd read it is that the CP Mock reflects his value based on talent alone whereas the WF Mock reflects the riskiness of a guy who was too foolish to clean up for the combine.

**OnTheWarpath15** · 05-03-2011, 08:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patteeu

Because he was taken 20th overall in the Official CP Mock whereas he didn't go until the 3rd round in reality. WalterFootball had him going in the 3rd round just a few picks after the spot the Chiefs took him. This is probably another case like that of Da'Quan Bowers where late information (about his failed drug test at the combine in this case) caused a re-evaluation of his value. That re-evaluation is reflected in the WalterFootball Mock, but not in the CP Mock.

The way I'd read it is that the CP Mock reflects his value based on talent alone whereas the WF Mock reflects the riskiness of a guy who was too foolish to clean up for the combine.

Time is the factor which forces the CP mock to select based on talent.

We start the CP mock in early March, almost a full two months before the real thing. A lot happens over that time that affects the status of a player.

In some regards, I wish I hadn't pushed a few years back to go to a full 7 round mock. Had we stayed with a 2-3 round mock, I believe the results would be much more realistic because we could start the process much closer to the actual draft date.

Quesadilla Joe · 05-02-2011, 10:27 PM

Brian Xanders was on a Denver sports station and said that they graded every teams draft according to their board and Denver came out on top followed by the Saints and the Titans.

Rasputin · 05-02-2011, 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KnowMo

Brian Xanders was on a Denver sports station and said that they graded every teams draft according to their board and Denver came out on top followed by the Saints and the Titans.

Missing your signature, & you started new account for that reason huh.

Ask you something KnowMo

Do they laugh as much or more at you on the Donkos websites as we do here? Do they not accept you there? I know Donko fans are idiots but you must be the cream of the crop.

Quesadilla Joe · 05-02-2011, 11:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC Tattoo

Missing your signature, & you started new account for that reason huh.

Ask you something KnowMo

Do they laugh as much or more at you on the Donkos websites as we do here? Do they not accept you there? I know Donko fans are idiots but you must be the cream of the crop.

No. For some reason I can't get any pages to load on my KnowMo2724 account and if a page does happen to load it takes two or three minutes to do so, or it will take me to the Chiefs Planet index page.

I actually find the people here hilarious and enjoy CP more than Broncos sites. The Orange Mane is too slow paced and half the posters there just want to argue about how bad the Broncos are or how Pat Bowlen has been secretly running the Broncos draft room and not letting the front office draft DT's for the past 30 years

.... The official Broncos board sucks.

kstater · 05-03-2011, 03:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KnowMo

No. For some reason I can't get any pages to load on my KnowMo2724 account and if a page does happen to load it takes two or three minutes to do so, or it will take me to the Chiefs Planet index page.

Crush · 05-03-2011, 04:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KnowMo

No. For some reason I can't get any pages to load on my KnowMo2724 account and if a page does happen to load it takes two or three minutes to do so, or it will take me to the Chiefs Planet index page.

I actually find the people here hilarious and enjoy CP more than Broncos sites. The Orange Mane is too slow paced and half the posters there just want to argue about how bad the Broncos are or how Pat Bowlen has been secretly running the Broncos draft room and not letting the front office draft DT's for the past 30 years

.... The official Broncos board sucks.

It was indeed a miserable draft.

**Dartgod** · 05-03-2011, 06:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KnowMo

No. For some reason I can't get any pages to load on my KnowMo2724 account and if a page does happen to load it takes two or three minutes to do so, or it will take me to the Chiefs Planet index page.

*cough*miserableuser*cough*

05-02-2011, 10:13 PM	#2
T-post Tom Threepeat! Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Milk/Honey/Gazland Casino cash: $4377293	He blinded me with math. Interesting. __________________ You seem nice!
Posts: 20,325

05-02-2011, 10:21 PM	#3
patteeu The 23rd Pillar Join Date: Sep 2002 Casino cash: $10019237	A couple of notes: 1. Obviously these results would change if a different mock was used or if a different version of the Draft Value Chart was used. 2. I did a similar calculation for the AFC West teams using the WalterFootball Mock in this thread. The results differ from that analysis slightly because I used a revised version of the Draft Value Chart here instead of the older version that I used in that thread. 3. The WalterFootball Mock came out right before the NFL draft. The Official ChiefsPlanet Mock was put together in March. The impact of this time difference can be seen in the values of players who either rose or dropped on the basis of late information. The most obvious and significant of these was the Da'Quan Bowers leg injury. He was taken 2nd overall in the Official ChiefsPlanet Mock whereas he was taken 24th overall in the WalterFootball Mock. Since New Orleans took him with the 51st pick, they get credit for a big steal in the WalterFootball analysis (+405 pts) but it's nothing compared to the steal they get credited for in the Official ChiefsPlanet Mock analysis (+2230 pts). 4. There were more picks in the draft than the Draft Value Chart covered so I decreased the value of each pick beyond the range of the DVC by 0.5 pts. __________________ “Boy, you all want power. God, I hope you never get it.” - Lindsay Graham
Posts: 110,871

05-02-2011, 10:24 PM	#4
wazu ... Join Date: May 2002 Location: Kansas City, MO Casino cash: $1942295 VARSITY	Very cool. Mind posting the detail behind the Chiefs numbers?
Posts: 27,914

05-02-2011, 10:27 PM	#10
Quesadilla Joe Abolish The Salary Cap! Join Date: Mar 2008 Casino cash: $3878675	Brian Xanders was on a Denver sports station and said that they graded every teams draft according to their board and Denver came out on top followed by the Saints and the Titans.
Posts: 19,806