"Combing the Combine to Uncover Pass Catchers"

[Discuss Thrower]

Recently, we looked at whether or not it was possible to predict NFL performance from collegiate linebackers based on their workout scores and college performance.. That may be true for the wide receiver position as well.

As with linebackers, can we use college production and offseason workouts to improve our odds?

Yes, we can!

Workout scores, and age-adjusted production metrics—largely based on the work that Rotoviz has done in predicting receiver performance—can give us a good idea of which receivers will outperform their draft position in the NFL.

The article is written from the perspective of what the Vikings need, but they lay out their methodology for analyzing WR prospects, use it to measure guys who've already been drafted to the league and apply the metric to the 2016 draft.

Further;

Feature receivers are hits in round one, starting receivers are hits in round two, and players who stuck around the league for quite a few years or had some excellent flashes were hits in round three—poring over the round three receivers really drives home how difficult it is to get a starter in those rounds. Like with linebackers, there were three groups. One of scores over 8.0, scores between 6.0 and 8.0 and scores below 6.0.

In the second round, there’s not a good track record of the best scores revealing the best receivers, and it may be an indication of general managers overcorrecting by moving players into the second round over better receivers in the third round too often because of their measurables, but the pattern of avoiding those with scores below 6.0 remains clear.

For what it’s worth, it certainly seems like it’s easier to find linebackers in round three than receivers.

TL;DR?

Spoiler!

You should seriously read the article, but if you're looking for a WR in the first round, pick Corey Coleman and pass on Treadwell.

[Skyy God]

Ah, the old "Jon Baldwin is just as good on paper as Julio" argument.

Good times. Good times.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by Cave Johnson

Ah, the old "Jon Baldwin is just as good on paper as Julio" argument.

Good times. Good times.

Sigh.

[Couch-Potato]

Really interesting article

[Rasputin]