Teams that could trade for Houston

kcbubb · 03-03-2015, 11:58 PM

Sorry if repost.
http://yackityyacksports.com/should-...houston-trade/

The Kansas City Chiefs gave outside linebacker Justin Houston the non-exclusive version of the franchise tag Monday, which means other teams are free to negotiate a contract with him if they are willing to turn over two first-round picks. It would be a stunning move, but teams make them every year around this time.

Of course, the Chiefs could take less to move Houston if they don’t believe they can come to an agreement and—as Pro Football Talk reported—he would really wait until Week 10 to sign the tender. They don’t have much motive to do that, but it would be a better option than six games of Houston before he hits free agency in 2016.

Unlike the Chiefs, there are teams that have to spend upwards of $100 million over the next two years on player contracts. Not just phony cap dollars, but they actually have to cut checks for that amount to get to the 89 percent floor mandated in the NFL‘s collective bargaining agreement. Overpaying Houston wouldn’t be an issue for those teams.

The optimal team would have a big need for a pass-rusher, no opportunity to draft a great one and desperate leadership. Desperate teams make the most irrational decisions at this time of year.

Those teams spend big money on flawed players, they trade multiple first-round draft picks to move up and get that one player they fell in love with, and they trade picks to acquire players the other team no longer wants or needs. The Chiefs are feeling the sting of trading two second-round picks for quarterback Alex Smith two years ago and then giving him a big contract extension, so they are no stranger to this phenomenon.

At least with Houston, they would get a good return on their investment. He was the NFL’s sack leader and All-Pro in 2014. He’ll also be just 26 next season, which means that most of his next contract will be before he turns the magical age of 30.

The thing that makes Houston so good is that he’s not just one-dimensional. He’s good against the run and in pass coverage. He’s also a disciplined player, having committed just three penalties in his career, and none over the past two years.

Comparison of Top Pass-Rushers
Players Snaps Penalties Sacks PFF Pass-Rush Productivity
Justin Houston 1057 0 23 15.7
J.J. Watt 1068 6 21 15.0
Von Miller 926 5 15 11.8
Ryan Kerrigan 1000 3 13 13.0
Elvis Dumervil 628 8 19 11.8
Pro Football Focus

Houston was so good last year that the Chiefs couldn’t take him off the field. He played more snaps than any 3-4 outside linebacker in the league. The Chiefs are in a pinch because they need him to play and to keep his cost down. If the franchise tag doesn’t accomplish that and a team is willing to give up two first-round picks or some other trade packages, it might help ease the pain.

Not only did Houston play the most snaps, but he was also efficient. Houston was even more productive as a pass-rusher than Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt, who signed a six-year contract worth $100 million in September with a total of $41.9 million guaranteed if he’s on the roster March 15.

That is the kind of commitment a team is going to have to make to Houston, but probably even more because Watt wasn’t a free agent or franchise tagged. The cost is steep, but there are teams that can make it happen.

With the salary-cap floor of 89 percent over four years, there are teams that have a lot of spending to do. Once adjusting for commitments the next two years, former agent and cap guru Jimmy Halsell calculated that the Oakland Raiders, Carolina Panthers, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets, San Diego Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts and New York Giants all must commit $100 million in cash to players over the next two years.

Funny Money
Team Uncommitted Cash Badly Need Pass-Rusher? Desperate GM? In Position to Draft Top Rusher?
Raiders $157.9M Yes Yes Yes
Panthers $149.6M Yes Maybe No
Jaguars $132.6M Yes Yes Yes
Jets $124.0M No No NA
Chargers $117.8M Yes No NA
Cowboys $115.7M Yes No NA
Colts $111.6M Yes Maybe No
Giants $109.2M No No NNA
Uncommitted Cash via Jim Halsell

The Chiefs aren’t going to trade Houston to a team within the division, so that leaves the Panthers, Jaguars, Jets, Cowboys, Colts and Giants. The teams that could really use a great pass-rusher are also the Colts and Jaguars.

The Jaguars are also about to get desperate because the new regime is going into its third year. If general manager David Caldwell and head coach Gus Bradley don’t improve in 2015 with gobs of money to spend, there’s no guarantee both will be back in 2016.

On the other hand, the Jaguars are in prime position to draft one of the top pass-rushers in the draft. That is, unless they trade down with a team looking to draft Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota. That kind of draft-day trade would give the Jaguars additional draft capital to replace whatever they have to give up to get Houston, but they wouldn’t be able to make the move until after it’s executed.

The Colts have already proven they will trade top draft picks for players, as they did when they sent a first-round pick to the Cleveland Browns for running back Trent Richardson. That could make them more reluctant to make another similar move, but it’s clear that their general manager, Ryan Grigson, believes good pass-rushers are rare and valuable.

“I was always brought up with if you have 12 pass-rushers, give me 13,” Grigson said, via Mike Wells of ESPN.com. “You can never have enough pass-rushers and that’s Scouting 101. The hard part is actually finding them and then finding ones that, the handful of them that are clean and really good.”

The Colts also probably won’t be in position to draft one of the top pass-rushers in the upcoming draft. They have the 29th pick, so most of the top pass-rushers will probably be gone.

According to Pro Football Talk, Houston intends to pursue offers from teams with low first-round picks. With quarterback Andrew Luck under center and a weak AFC South, the Colts are likely to be drafting low again in 2016.

jd1020 · 03-04-2015, 04:12 AM

If it's gonna be any team, it might as well be the Colts. No point in stopping at just raping us in the playoffs.

kcbubb · 03-04-2015, 07:49 AM

Seems like the cowboys would be interested. A player like Houston could put them in the Super Bowl with their current team.

Coochie liquor · 03-04-2015, 08:04 AM

If someone trades for him, I hope it's the Jags.

**The Franchise** · 03-04-2015, 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coochie liquor

If someone trades for him, I hope it's the Jags.

Guarantee it wouldn't be for two first round picks then. We'd probably get a 2nd this year and maybe a 1st next year.

kccrow · 03-04-2015, 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd1020

If it's gonna be any team, it might as well be the Colts. No point in stopping at just raping us in the playoffs.

Actually, I see them as the one team with the most to gain from making the deal. They already have a franchise QB. They need a disruptive presence on defense. They have a ton of money to throw around. They'll be giving up 2 very low 1st round picks, it isn't like they are picking in the top 10. What is there to lose for them, really? Would you give up two 2nds for Houston? Yeah, in a heartbeat. Basically what Indy has to be thinking.

Their other holes, namely WR, OLine, and RB, can be filled with a combination of free agents and draft picks. They'd have the money to trade for Houston and sign him long-term, sign Maclin, and sign a guy like Boling. It's crazy actually. Use the draft to pick up a top notch RB in the 2nd, fill some more O-Line and WR in the 3rd, 4th, 5th. Yeah, they're set up pretty good.

Couch-Potato · 03-04-2015, 09:13 PM

I didn't think Cowboys had that much to spend, everyone kept acting like it would be impossible for them to sign Dez plus Murry. Both the Boys and the Colts would be scary with Houston.

Two low first rounders for Houston would be devastating in my opinion to this Chiefs fanbase. Not acceptable.

OldSchool · 03-04-2015, 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

I didn't think Cowboys had that much to spend, everyone kept acting like it would be impossible for them to sign Dez plus Murry. Both the Boys and the Colts would be scary with Houston.

Two low first rounders for Houston would be devastating in my opinion to this Chiefs fanbase. Not acceptable.

I'd rather have 2 low 1st round picks than a 6 game rental of Houston before he bolts.

Couch-Potato · 03-05-2015, 01:33 PM

I dont see any reason why he would leave next year.

Hog's Gone Fishin · 03-10-2015, 09:59 AM

Just think if the Raiders signed Houston, Suh and Revis.

**Rausch** · 03-10-2015, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hog Farmer

Just think if the Raiders signed Houston, Suh and Revis.

If the Raiders were smart they would have ignored Hudson, locked up Houston, and had one fierce set of LB's.

Those guys could rape faces. And they'll just ****ing waste their 1st round picks anyway...

philfree · 03-11-2015, 12:39 PM

Don't the Falcons need a pass rusher? We need a top ten pick if we lose Houston anything else won't be satisfactory.

saphojunkie · 03-11-2015, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philfree

Don't the Falcons need a pass rusher? We need a top ten pick if we lose Houston anything else won't be satisfactory.

I could see Pioli getting in some ears about this.

ct · 03-12-2015, 09:29 AM

I don't see anyone sacrificing 2 1sts for Houston. However, would somebody offer a sign and trade (houston signs tender, agrees to extension w/ new team, trade executed, then sign the long term deal) for 1st +2nd/3rd kind of deal? Is that worth it to KC?

deltachief · 03-12-2015, 11:00 AM

The Atlanta Falcons would make a lot of sense to me. They could sign Big Vince Woolfork for the middle of their line and they already have T.Jackson there. Draft some secondary help and they could get good real quick, with Houston.

03-03-2015, 11:58 PM
kcbubb Veteran Join Date: Nov 2008 Casino cash: $6056719	Teams that could trade for Houston Sorry if repost. http://yackityyacksports.com/should-...houston-trade/ The Kansas City Chiefs gave outside linebacker Justin Houston the non-exclusive version of the franchise tag Monday, which means other teams are free to negotiate a contract with him if they are willing to turn over two first-round picks. It would be a stunning move, but teams make them every year around this time. Of course, the Chiefs could take less to move Houston if they don’t believe they can come to an agreement and—as Pro Football Talk reported—he would really wait until Week 10 to sign the tender. They don’t have much motive to do that, but it would be a better option than six games of Houston before he hits free agency in 2016. Unlike the Chiefs, there are teams that have to spend upwards of $100 million over the next two years on player contracts. Not just phony cap dollars, but they actually have to cut checks for that amount to get to the 89 percent floor mandated in the NFL‘s collective bargaining agreement. Overpaying Houston wouldn’t be an issue for those teams. The optimal team would have a big need for a pass-rusher, no opportunity to draft a great one and desperate leadership. Desperate teams make the most irrational decisions at this time of year. Those teams spend big money on flawed players, they trade multiple first-round draft picks to move up and get that one player they fell in love with, and they trade picks to acquire players the other team no longer wants or needs. The Chiefs are feeling the sting of trading two second-round picks for quarterback Alex Smith two years ago and then giving him a big contract extension, so they are no stranger to this phenomenon. At least with Houston, they would get a good return on their investment. He was the NFL’s sack leader and All-Pro in 2014. He’ll also be just 26 next season, which means that most of his next contract will be before he turns the magical age of 30. The thing that makes Houston so good is that he’s not just one-dimensional. He’s good against the run and in pass coverage. He’s also a disciplined player, having committed just three penalties in his career, and none over the past two years. Comparison of Top Pass-Rushers Players Snaps Penalties Sacks PFF Pass-Rush Productivity Justin Houston 1057 0 23 15.7 J.J. Watt 1068 6 21 15.0 Von Miller 926 5 15 11.8 Ryan Kerrigan 1000 3 13 13.0 Elvis Dumervil 628 8 19 11.8 Pro Football Focus Houston was so good last year that the Chiefs couldn’t take him off the field. He played more snaps than any 3-4 outside linebacker in the league. The Chiefs are in a pinch because they need him to play and to keep his cost down. If the franchise tag doesn’t accomplish that and a team is willing to give up two first-round picks or some other trade packages, it might help ease the pain. Not only did Houston play the most snaps, but he was also efficient. Houston was even more productive as a pass-rusher than Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt, who signed a six-year contract worth $100 million in September with a total of $41.9 million guaranteed if he’s on the roster March 15. That is the kind of commitment a team is going to have to make to Houston, but probably even more because Watt wasn’t a free agent or franchise tagged. The cost is steep, but there are teams that can make it happen. With the salary-cap floor of 89 percent over four years, there are teams that have a lot of spending to do. Once adjusting for commitments the next two years, former agent and cap guru Jimmy Halsell calculated that the Oakland Raiders, Carolina Panthers, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets, San Diego Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts and New York Giants all must commit $100 million in cash to players over the next two years. Funny Money Team Uncommitted Cash Badly Need Pass-Rusher? Desperate GM? In Position to Draft Top Rusher? Raiders $157.9M Yes Yes Yes Panthers $149.6M Yes Maybe No Jaguars $132.6M Yes Yes Yes Jets $124.0M No No NA Chargers $117.8M Yes No NA Cowboys $115.7M Yes No NA Colts $111.6M Yes Maybe No Giants $109.2M No No NNA Uncommitted Cash via Jim Halsell The Chiefs aren’t going to trade Houston to a team within the division, so that leaves the Panthers, Jaguars, Jets, Cowboys, Colts and Giants. The teams that could really use a great pass-rusher are also the Colts and Jaguars. The Jaguars are also about to get desperate because the new regime is going into its third year. If general manager David Caldwell and head coach Gus Bradley don’t improve in 2015 with gobs of money to spend, there’s no guarantee both will be back in 2016. On the other hand, the Jaguars are in prime position to draft one of the top pass-rushers in the draft. That is, unless they trade down with a team looking to draft Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota. That kind of draft-day trade would give the Jaguars additional draft capital to replace whatever they have to give up to get Houston, but they wouldn’t be able to make the move until after it’s executed. The Colts have already proven they will trade top draft picks for players, as they did when they sent a first-round pick to the Cleveland Browns for running back Trent Richardson. That could make them more reluctant to make another similar move, but it’s clear that their general manager, Ryan Grigson, believes good pass-rushers are rare and valuable. “I was always brought up with if you have 12 pass-rushers, give me 13,” Grigson said, via Mike Wells of ESPN.com. “You can never have enough pass-rushers and that’s Scouting 101. The hard part is actually finding them and then finding ones that, the handful of them that are clean and really good.” The Colts also probably won’t be in position to draft one of the top pass-rushers in the upcoming draft. They have the 29th pick, so most of the top pass-rushers will probably be gone. According to Pro Football Talk, Houston intends to pursue offers from teams with low first-round picks. With quarterback Andrew Luck under center and a weak AFC South, the Colts are likely to be drafting low again in 2016.
Posts: 2,367

03-04-2015, 04:12 AM	#2
jd1020 In Search of a Life Join Date: Nov 2010 Casino cash: $7702645	If it's gonna be any team, it might as well be the Colts. No point in stopping at just raping us in the playoffs.
Posts: 24,336

03-04-2015, 07:49 AM	#3
kcbubb Veteran Join Date: Nov 2008 Casino cash: $6056719	Seems like the cowboys would be interested. A player like Houston could put them in the Super Bowl with their current team.
Posts: 2,367

03-04-2015, 08:04 AM	#4
Coochie liquor Bolton gonna knock you out Join Date: Mar 2014 Location: Free Vybz Kartel Casino cash: $2392394	If someone trades for him, I hope it's the Jags.
Posts: 20,515

03-04-2015, 09:13 PM	#7
Couch-Potato MVP Join Date: Jan 2015 Casino cash: $2983065	I didn't think Cowboys had that much to spend, everyone kept acting like it would be impossible for them to sign Dez plus Murry. Both the Boys and the Colts would be scary with Houston. Two low first rounders for Houston would be devastating in my opinion to this Chiefs fanbase. Not acceptable.
Posts: 6,260

03-05-2015, 01:33 PM	#9
Couch-Potato MVP Join Date: Jan 2015 Casino cash: $2983065	I dont see any reason why he would leave next year.
Posts: 6,260

03-10-2015, 09:59 AM	#10
Hog's Gone Fishin Fish are scared of me Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $1400477	Just think if the Raiders signed Houston, Suh and Revis.
Posts: 40,401

03-11-2015, 12:39 PM	#12
philfree Indian Twitter Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Free Agency Casino cash: $1326198	Don't the Falcons need a pass rusher? We need a top ten pick if we lose Houston anything else won't be satisfactory. __________________ [/SIGPIC]
Posts: 15,035

03-12-2015, 09:29 AM	#14
ct u b illian Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: DooDah Casino cash: $10009436	I don't see anyone sacrificing 2 1sts for Houston. However, would somebody offer a sign and trade (houston signs tender, agrees to extension w/ new team, trade executed, then sign the long term deal) for 1st +2nd/3rd kind of deal? Is that worth it to KC?
Posts: 7,287

03-12-2015, 11:00 AM	#15
deltachief Rookie Join Date: Jan 2010 Casino cash: $9945634	The Atlanta Falcons would make a lot of sense to me. They could sign Big Vince Woolfork for the middle of their line and they already have T.Jackson there. Draft some secondary help and they could get good real quick, with Houston.
Posts: 22