AFC Playoff Picture after week 16

[tk13]

1) New England 12-3
2) Denver 11-4

3) Cincinnati 10-4-1
6) San Diego 9-6

4) Indianapolis 10-5
5) Pittsburgh 10-5

Baltimore 9-6
Houston 8-7
Kansas City 8-7

-New England has clinched the 1 seed.

-Denver clinches the 2 seed with a win. A Denver loss + CIN win would give CIN the 2 seed.

-If Denver wins, the CIN/PIT winner will be the 3rd seed. PIT cannot go higher than the 3 seed.

-Indianapolis is the 4 seed

-The CIN/PIT loser will be the 5 seed.

-San Diego gets the 6 seed with a win. They lose, Baltimore gets in with a win. They both lose, Houston gets in with a win. BAL & HOU lose, KC gets in with a win.

This is all assuming no ties next week.

[cdcox]

Chiefs 5.5% chance.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by cdcox

Chiefs 5.5% chance.

Really? That's higher than the end of the 2006 season isn't it? That's surprising. Especially since we're counting on Jacksonville to win.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by tk13

Really? That's higher than the end of the 2006 season isn't it? That's surprising. Especially since we're counting on Jacksonville to win.

I do believe it is significantly higher. That year was miraculous. We had to win, and we needed like 4 out of 5 of the early games to go our way, and they did. Then we needed Denver to lose to a very crappy 49er team. The thing is, we had to have a lot of things go right for us in week 16 in order to get to week 17. It was probably less than 1% going in to week 16.

This year, according to the model:

Chiefs win = 72% (not sure I believe that)
Baltimore loss = 36%
Houston loss = 23%

0.72 * 0.36 * 0.23 = 0.06

[Aries Walker]

Originally Posted by cdcox

Chiefs 5.5% chance.

By way of comparison, this is almost exactly the same odds as rolling a 2 or 12 on a pair of dice. So probably not, but stranger things have happened.

[Crying Ramtard]

Originally Posted by Aries Walker

By way of comparison, this is almost exactly the same odds as rolling a 2 or 12 on a pair of dice. So probably not, but stranger things have happened.

so it can be strange and you don't question it still ?

anyway, the Chiefs will beat SD and not get in Because the Ravens wont lose.

[Aries Walker]

Originally Posted by ram29jackson

so it can be strange and you don't question it still ?

anyway, the Chiefs will beat SD and not get in Because the Ravens wont lose.

I don't have an opinion on whether the 5.5% number is accurate; I'm just putting it into a practical context.

And that sounds about right. The Browns kinda suck, and they might very well be led by a practice squad quarterback.

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by Aries Walker

And that sounds about right. The Browns kinda suck, and they might very well be led by a practice squad quarterback.

Wait, I thought Manziel was out?

/rimshot

[Crying Ramtard]

Originally Posted by Aries Walker

I don't have an opinion on whether the 5.5% number is accurate; I'm just putting it into a practical context.

And that sounds about right. The Browns kinda suck, and they might very well be led by a practice squad quarterback.

worked for the Cardinals apparently

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by Aries Walker

By way of comparison, this is almost exactly the same odds as rolling a 2 or 12 on a pair of dice. So probably not, but stranger things have happened.

I thought about rolling a pair of dice and posting the results, then decided it would be easier to do it in Excel than to go downstairs to dig out some dice from Yatzee!, then decided whatever I did was very unlikely to affect the outcomes of the actual games.

[DaneMcCloud]

It would be hilarious to see Houston get in when they're on their third QB of the season and the #1 overall pick contributes next to nothing, yet the Chiefs give that bozo $17+ million per year and sit at home.

Because Chiefs.

[Molitoth]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

It would be hilarious to see Houston get in when they're on their third QB of the season and the #1 overall pick contributes next to nothing, yet the Chiefs give that bozo $17+ million per year and sit at home.

Because Chiefs.

Houston must have an AMAZING Oline...

[tk13]

That makes sense. Now we really only need two other teams to lose, even though they'd both be upsets. We needed about 4 upsets in 2006.

[Lonewolf Ed]

Originally Posted by tk13

That makes sense. Now we really only need two other teams to lose, even though they'd both be upsets. We needed about 4 upsets in 2006.

If the Chiefs do somehow tumble ass over elbows backwards into the playoffs, then there will be one more upset for the fans when they lose horribly to whatever playoff team they face.

Yes, I have given up on this season. Time to look ahead to spring!

[mikey23545]

Originally Posted by tk13

That makes sense. Now we really only need two other teams to lose, even though they'd both be upsets. We needed about 4 upsets in 2006.