T-Minus 7 Days: The Draft’s QBs, Now and Then

[Sully]

Here’s an idea: What if we took Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota and every quarterback drafted in the first round over the last four years, and ranked them in order of how they would be drafted if they were in the same class?

I asked a high-ranking evaluator from an NFL team that has been in the QB market to do just that. He checked back on the final grades for each of the 12 first-rounders, added Winston and Mariota, then seeded them on the condition of anonymity.

From Luck to Ponder, Team X’s Top 14:

1. Andrew Luck
2. Jameis Winston
3. Robert Griffin III
4. Cam Newton
5. Blaine Gabbert
6. Marcus Mariota
7. Ryan Tannehill
8. Blake Bortles
9. Jake Locker
10. Teddy Bridgewater
11. EJ Manuel
12. Johnny Manziel
13. Brandon Weeden
14. Christian Ponder

In case you’re wondering, this isn’t coming from the Buccaneers or the Titans. This team and this evaluator doesn’t have a horse in the Winston/Mariota race. He submitted the list in the interest of debate, with a caveat: The grades span multiple management regimes.


So in that interest of debate, here is the evaluator’s view on the top of the list:
SCOUT X: You have Luck, who is in his own category. The only guy who compares well to him in the last five years is Jameis. A quarterbacks coach will tell you that Winston has fewer issues than Cam or RG3. Most guys are looking for a strong-armed pocket passer with the ability to read coverage. There’s no projecting that with Jameis; he’s already able to do it. We have Winston high, but don’t believe he’s quite as skilled as Luck.

The MMQB: But what about the interceptions?

SCOUT X: The 18 picks are more of a discipline issue. He has such a small sample size, so it’s hard to say he’s a chronic interception thrower. You had Kelvin Benjamin lost to the draft. You ask him who his go-to receiver was and he’ll tell you Nick O’Leary, who doesn’t project as a starting tight end in the NFL. You had drops, wrong routes. I think every game he was taking it upon himself to go win it.

The MMQB: And the off-field immaturity?

SCOUT X: Even with that, we still [have him rated higher] than both Cam Newton and RG3, because Cam had his own off-field issues, and RG3’s projected success was a question because he never had a playbook. With RG3, we felt he had all the tools, but there was still some heavy lifting to do.

The MMQB: And what about Mariota? Behind Gabbert?

SCOUT X: The only reason Gabbert was rated higher than Mariota is that I think they saw fewer fundamental flaws with Gabbert. Obviously you fast forward and this guy’s a gigantic bust. Mariota falls into the Manziel category for us, though bigger and with a little more polish.

* * *

Just remember: That is one team’s collective opinion. The exercise shows what Team X thought of the QBs before the draft, so the Mariota believers shouldn’t take the Gabbert comparison as a slight. This is, after all, an inexact science.
http://mmqb.si.com/2015/04/23/nfl-dr...laine-gabbert/

[Chiefnj2]

I have a difficult time believing Winston would have been ranked higher than Griffin and Newton if he was in the same draft class as them.

I don't see anyone willing to give up multiple firsts for Winston.

If this guy is really a scout for a team in need of a QB, then that team should be moving hell on earth to grab Winston if he is the 2nd best QB to enter the draft in the last 4-5 years. If he is the only guy comparable to Luck (scout's words) then you give up 2 or 3 firsts for him.

[Snapplez]

I don't think I'll ever understand why scouts soured on Bridgewater the way they did

[Rain Man]

Interesting analysis.

[O.city]

Why did/do teams not like Bridgewater ?

[The Franchise]

Bridgewater is way to low.

[Willie Lanier]

Why the hell is Blaine gabbert above anyone?

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by Willie Lanier

Why the hell is Blaine gabbert above anyone?

Did you actually read the OP?

[Willie Lanier]

Did now, my bad, just looked at the list initially

[Sully]

I'm still having trouble figuring out why we were all in love with Locker at the time. I bought in a bit (because, you know... QB). But what the hell did he really do to deserve the love he got?

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by Sully

I'm still having trouble figuring out why we were all in love with Locker at the time. I bought in a bit (because, you know... QB). But what the hell did he really do to deserve the love he got?

Athletic ability and potential. Injuries killed his career. If he could have stayed healthy....I think he would have been a decent QB.

[Willie Lanier]

He was very athletic and somewhat productive for a program that was complete garbage before he got there, so people assumed he could continue to improve himself and whatever franchise he went to...

I was falsely sold on him too

[Sully]

Didn't he have a sub-50% comp. percentage?

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by Sully

Didn't he have a sub-50% comp. percentage?

54% in college.

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

If this guy is really a scout for a team in need of a QB, then that team should be moving hell on earth to grab Winston if he is the 2nd best QB to enter the draft in the last 4-5 years. If he is the only guy comparable to Luck (scout's words) then you give up 2 or 3 firsts for him.

Originally Posted by Sully

In case you’re wondering, this isn’t coming from the Buccaneers or the Titans. This team and this evaluator doesn’t have a horse in the Winston/Mariota race.

.