Chiefs Good article about the Chiefs upcoming draft

Chief Roundup · 04-14-2017, 09:55 PM

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2017/4...-not-desperate

Just because a perceived need is first on the list, it doesn’t mean the Chiefs have to draft it in the first round. We tend to have tunnel vision in draft season, and only focus on the first round pick. Or we focus on the first round pick being the only chance to address the top need. If this team’s top need is RB for example, they could easily take a good RB that fits the system in the third round. Same goes for ILB. QB is the exception. Even if QB isn’t the top need, you take them early because teams tend to overdraft for need at the position. I don’t want my team picking through the scraps in the third round hoping to grab the QB of the future.. Hope isn’t a strategy.

The definition of worth is whatever someone is willing to pay. I hate seeing these debates about a player saying he’s not worth a first round pick or in the case of free agency he’s not worth the contract he is demanding. A player is worth a first round pick if the team picking in the first round is willing to use their first pick on him. Nothing else matters. You may not want to spend your first on that player, but it only takes one team to pull the trigger, and boom ... that guy is a first round pick. In free agency, if a team thinks the player can help them and they can fit his contract in the salary cap, then he’s worth the contract ... to them. It doesn’t matter what we think.

We want the Chiefs to be aggressive, not desperate. I would argue that they were desperate for a QB when Andy Reid and John Dorsey were hired, and they invested heavily in Alex Smith and Chase Daniel. Since then, the team has been neither aggressive nor desperate. They’ve passed on QBs that might have made sense, and been leap-frogged in the draft by other teams willing to be more aggressive to get QBs the Chiefs were interested in. This year is the same but different. They still aren’t desperate in that there’s a competent starter in place (please don’t argue this point). But it’s time for the Chiefs to be more aggressive in getting the QB of the future. If there’s a guy they love, they should be aggressive in doing whatever it takes to draft him (trade up, take him a round earlier than others have him graded, etc). However, they shouldn’t be taking a first round QB that isn’t their guy just out of desperation to get one. Bad teams act out of desperation, good teams are aggressive when they need to be.

Win now or build for the future? Why choose? From day one of the Reid/Dorsey era, they have built a team that can compete, while drafting for the future. I’d argue that the team has evolved, but not much has fundamentally changed. The first season, they added a handful of veterans (including Alex Smith) to help bring the team out of the 2-14 pit and into a winning team. They accomplished that goal, going 11-5 in their first season, and been in contention (at least for the division title) ever since. Then, they had a couple of good drafts, purged some veterans and moved forward. The Chiefs aren’t drafting for immediate needs, but typically for needs in future years. They have an established roster that can win now, and the draft capital to build for the future. It’s not one or the other.

Your board is not the same as Dorsey’s board. I wrote about this in 2015, but it bears repeating this time of year. The draft isn’t simple. It’s not just best player available and that means something different to each team. Quoting myself here: Teams build their own, independent boards by trusting their scouts instead of prevailing opinions. They make a list of players and / or skill sets that complement their existing roster and improve their team. They eliminate players from the board that don’t fit their schemes. Then they pick the Best Available Player at each pick in their draft based on the board and shopping list they have compiled.

Reach or value only matter on draft day, and it should only matter to guys like Mel Kiper. A player that seems like a great value (based on draft experts mocks and big boards) might not even be on the board for the Chiefs. On another player, the team might see a perfect fit and believe that he won’t be there for their later selection, so they pull the trigger. At the end of the day, the only questions that really matter are: Can they help improve the team and will they be available when our next pick comes up? After the draft (and the silly post-draft grades), the rookies have to line up for minicamps, OTAs and training camp. They have to make the team, and find a role.

Get outta here with your draft grades. “I have a second round grade on all the QBs!” “I can’t believe they took that guy in the first round, I had a third round grade on him!” We can only guess where the actual NFL teams believe a guy will be taken, but how can we actually assign a specific round based on what we see on draft breakdown? Are we able to look at each NFL team’s needs, the skill sets they value, and the draft picks they have available and determine how many times they’ll pass over a player before they draft them?

Even crazier are the grades within a round. Most teams only have one first round pick, some have two, but they don’t get to pick where in the round they select. So, if your team picks 10th, but their favorite player in the draft, the one that fits their needs is perceived by many to be a “late first round pick” or “graded out in the 20s” ... they should absolutely take him. Generally, if a player is good enough to be taken with pick 32, they are good enough to be taken with pick one. Again, if that player is your guy and he won’t be there when you pick next, it’s not a reach and you should take him. Mel Kiper be damned.

From the Upside Down:

Trades are impossible to predict but ... I mentioned in last week’s edition that I’d be OK trading into next year’s draft, given the glut of 2017 picks the Chiefs own. Today, I’ll go a step further. If the Chiefs don’t love the QBs this year, I’d be OK trading KC’s first round pick to a bad team for something like a 2017 second and a first round pick next year.

As with most seasons, experts say the 2018 QB class is much better than the 2017. We should be skeptical of this type of analysis because a lot can change in one year. But the Chiefs do have flexibility. They could take a QB this year to sit for a year, then cut Alex in 2018. Or they could draft the QB in 2018, then start him and cut Alex when the rookie is ready.

The Chiefs are meeting with all of the top QB prospects, so we know Dorsey is doing his homework. If he doesn’t see the QB of the future in this group, he could punt the decision to next year. If that happens, however, they will be closer to the desperate category at the position, so the pressure will be on Dorsey to get it right.

Sofa King · 04-14-2017, 10:27 PM

Nickhead · 04-14-2017, 10:40 PM

that read just fine. and is quite correct. the only gamble you have is whether or not alex exceeds expectations to warrant an extension if they wait till 2018 for their qb. and if that happens it better be a two year deal

kccrow · 04-14-2017, 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sofa King

Paragraphs man, they're difficult.

**The Franchise** · 04-14-2017, 10:54 PM

Alex exceed expectations?

I expect him to shit his pants and throw 15 TDs again.

kccrow · 04-14-2017, 10:55 PM

As for the OP, this is why I'm on the Mahomes train. He's my favorite prospect at the QB position. He might be a "2nd round talent" but I'd move up in the 1st to get him, opinions be damned.

Simply Red · 04-14-2017, 11:12 PM

do you guys think we have a chance against Pittsburgh? It's supposed to ice over Arrowhead. They'd moved the game to a later start time.

Simply Red · 04-14-2017, 11:12 PM

I THINK THAT FAVORS US (the home team!!!!!)

**SAGA45** · 04-14-2017, 11:27 PM

Great read. I've always tried to look at the prospects based on the type of players Dorsey and Reid have drafted thus far. Each year there's been a new wrinkle but for the most part they've established a profile for each position and position group.

Red Dawg · 04-15-2017, 06:19 AM

Good read and a correct analysis but KC is already desperate in my opinion. This team had no business going to the playoffs with a QB that stunk as bad as Alex. No team can rely each year on its defense getting 30 turnovers and dominating on special teams. We need a QB and need to stop with the next year we will like that class more bullshit. Make a move a grab one you like now.

Every year we play Alex is a waste. Our schedule is going to be brutal and without the 30 plus turnovers we will need more points and let's face it Alex won't get them and he won't next year either.

Staying the same doesn't make you better. What have we done to get better? Nothing at all, we have no money and keep sending out the same non capable of scoring QB. Go grab a young QB and for once really give him a shot.

Chief Roundup · 04-15-2017, 07:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sofa King

Want to know how I know you have never read a book?

Chief Roundup · 04-15-2017, 07:28 AM

I don't know if the organization is desperate or not. I can see where they might seem that way when compared to years past since we have visited with every QB prospect in this draft and they have never done that before.
I know the fans are desperate for a QB and a deep push into the playoffs.

Halfcan · 04-15-2017, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tuckdaddy

Good read and a correct analysis but KC is already desperate in my opinion. This team had no business going to the playoffs with a QB that stunk as bad as Alex. No team can rely each year on its defense getting 30 turnovers and dominating on special teams. We need a QB and need to stop with the next year we will like that class more bullshit. Make a move a grab one you like now.

Every year we play Alex is a waste. Our schedule is going to be brutal and without the 30 plus turnovers we will need more points and let's face it Alex won't get them and he won't next year either.

Staying the same doesn't make you better. What have we done to get better? Nothing at all, we have no money and keep sending out the same non capable of scoring QB. Go grab a young QB and for once really give him a shot.

They don't seem desperate at all. Almost immediately after ALex choked the home playoff game away- they were on his bandwagon stating he would be our starter.

Many games- Alex fails to throw a TD or even break the impossible summit of throwing for 200 yards in a game- but Andy always states that he played well.

The Chiefs have paid him like a top QB- well above what his meager stats have dictated, and seem content in his ultra-safe horizontal attack.

Alex has padded his net worth (reportedly now at 35 million) with fat Chief's contracts while providing a 1940's QB playing style that is less exciting than watching Pop Warner. Alex has also earned the reputation as a "winner" by playing on stacked Chiefs teams and squeaking by lesser opponents.

He keeps the Chiefs above average and fans in the seats- and that is really all Clark ever cared about. He will retire here and be the sole reason Andy will never win a Championship.

**Rausch** · 04-15-2017, 09:37 AM

Quote:

The definition of worth is whatever someone is willing to pay. I hate seeing these debates about a player saying he’s not worth a first round pick or in the case of free agency he’s not worth the contract he is demanding. A player is worth a first round pick if the team picking in the first round is willing to use their first pick on him. Nothing else matters. You may not want to spend your first on that player, but it only takes one team to pull the trigger, and boom ... that guy is a first round pick. In free agency, if a team thinks the player can help them and they can fit his contract in the salary cap, then he’s worth the contract ... to them. It doesn’t matter what we think.

For the most part I agree with this.

I'd also argue that draft picks have the same amount of malleable worth...

Coogs · 04-15-2017, 09:43 AM

I like that the Chiefs seem to have an interest in Watson and Mahomes. I hope we are all in on one of them.

If we spend a 2nd or 3rd on someone like Peterman, it pretty well says we are not drafting QB early next year.

04-14-2017, 09:55 PM
Chief Roundup Admitted Planet Junky Join Date: Oct 2000 Casino cash: $1491627	Good article about the Chiefs upcoming draft http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2017/4...-not-desperate Just because a perceived need is first on the list, it doesn’t mean the Chiefs have to draft it in the first round. We tend to have tunnel vision in draft season, and only focus on the first round pick. Or we focus on the first round pick being the only chance to address the top need. If this team’s top need is RB for example, they could easily take a good RB that fits the system in the third round. Same goes for ILB. QB is the exception. Even if QB isn’t the top need, you take them early because teams tend to overdraft for need at the position. I don’t want my team picking through the scraps in the third round hoping to grab the QB of the future.. Hope isn’t a strategy. The definition of worth is whatever someone is willing to pay. I hate seeing these debates about a player saying he’s not worth a first round pick or in the case of free agency he’s not worth the contract he is demanding. A player is worth a first round pick if the team picking in the first round is willing to use their first pick on him. Nothing else matters. You may not want to spend your first on that player, but it only takes one team to pull the trigger, and boom ... that guy is a first round pick. In free agency, if a team thinks the player can help them and they can fit his contract in the salary cap, then he’s worth the contract ... to them. It doesn’t matter what we think. We want the Chiefs to be aggressive, not desperate. I would argue that they were desperate for a QB when Andy Reid and John Dorsey were hired, and they invested heavily in Alex Smith and Chase Daniel. Since then, the team has been neither aggressive nor desperate. They’ve passed on QBs that might have made sense, and been leap-frogged in the draft by other teams willing to be more aggressive to get QBs the Chiefs were interested in. This year is the same but different. They still aren’t desperate in that there’s a competent starter in place (please don’t argue this point). But it’s time for the Chiefs to be more aggressive in getting the QB of the future. If there’s a guy they love, they should be aggressive in doing whatever it takes to draft him (trade up, take him a round earlier than others have him graded, etc). However, they shouldn’t be taking a first round QB that isn’t their guy just out of desperation to get one. Bad teams act out of desperation, good teams are aggressive when they need to be. Win now or build for the future? Why choose? From day one of the Reid/Dorsey era, they have built a team that can compete, while drafting for the future. I’d argue that the team has evolved, but not much has fundamentally changed. The first season, they added a handful of veterans (including Alex Smith) to help bring the team out of the 2-14 pit and into a winning team. They accomplished that goal, going 11-5 in their first season, and been in contention (at least for the division title) ever since. Then, they had a couple of good drafts, purged some veterans and moved forward. The Chiefs aren’t drafting for immediate needs, but typically for needs in future years. They have an established roster that can win now, and the draft capital to build for the future. It’s not one or the other. Your board is not the same as Dorsey’s board. I wrote about this in 2015, but it bears repeating this time of year. The draft isn’t simple. It’s not just best player available and that means something different to each team. Quoting myself here: Teams build their own, independent boards by trusting their scouts instead of prevailing opinions. They make a list of players and / or skill sets that complement their existing roster and improve their team. They eliminate players from the board that don’t fit their schemes. Then they pick the Best Available Player at each pick in their draft based on the board and shopping list they have compiled. Reach or value only matter on draft day, and it should only matter to guys like Mel Kiper. A player that seems like a great value (based on draft experts mocks and big boards) might not even be on the board for the Chiefs. On another player, the team might see a perfect fit and believe that he won’t be there for their later selection, so they pull the trigger. At the end of the day, the only questions that really matter are: Can they help improve the team and will they be available when our next pick comes up? After the draft (and the silly post-draft grades), the rookies have to line up for minicamps, OTAs and training camp. They have to make the team, and find a role. Get outta here with your draft grades. “I have a second round grade on all the QBs!” “I can’t believe they took that guy in the first round, I had a third round grade on him!” We can only guess where the actual NFL teams believe a guy will be taken, but how can we actually assign a specific round based on what we see on draft breakdown? Are we able to look at each NFL team’s needs, the skill sets they value, and the draft picks they have available and determine how many times they’ll pass over a player before they draft them? Even crazier are the grades within a round. Most teams only have one first round pick, some have two, but they don’t get to pick where in the round they select. So, if your team picks 10th, but their favorite player in the draft, the one that fits their needs is perceived by many to be a “late first round pick” or “graded out in the 20s” ... they should absolutely take him. Generally, if a player is good enough to be taken with pick 32, they are good enough to be taken with pick one. Again, if that player is your guy and he won’t be there when you pick next, it’s not a reach and you should take him. Mel Kiper be damned. From the Upside Down: Trades are impossible to predict but ... I mentioned in last week’s edition that I’d be OK trading into next year’s draft, given the glut of 2017 picks the Chiefs own. Today, I’ll go a step further. If the Chiefs don’t love the QBs this year, I’d be OK trading KC’s first round pick to a bad team for something like a 2017 second and a first round pick next year. As with most seasons, experts say the 2018 QB class is much better than the 2017. We should be skeptical of this type of analysis because a lot can change in one year. But the Chiefs do have flexibility. They could take a QB this year to sit for a year, then cut Alex in 2018. Or they could draft the QB in 2018, then start him and cut Alex when the rookie is ready. The Chiefs are meeting with all of the top QB prospects, so we know Dorsey is doing his homework. If he doesn’t see the QB of the future in this group, he could punt the decision to next year. If that happens, however, they will be closer to the desperate category at the position, so the pressure will be on Dorsey to get it right.
Posts: 19,252

04-14-2017, 10:27 PM	#2
Sofa King Hello Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: South Dakota Casino cash: $532096 VARSITY
Posts: 23,256

04-14-2017, 10:40 PM	#3
Nickhead EvOlVeD Join Date: Jun 2016 Location: Blue Mountains, Australia Casino cash: $2099868	that read just fine. and is quite correct. the only gamble you have is whether or not alex exceeds expectations to warrant an extension if they wait till 2018 for their qb. and if that happens it better be a two year deal __________________ KC vs DET 30-28 7/6/2024
Posts: 8,257

04-14-2017, 10:54 PM	#5
The Franchise Most Valuable Villain Join Date: Dec 2006 Casino cash: $2575047	Alex exceed expectations? I expect him to shit his pants and throw 15 TDs again.
Posts: 92,316

04-14-2017, 10:55 PM	#6
kccrow MVP Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Michigan Casino cash: $2827078	As for the OP, this is why I'm on the Mahomes train. He's my favorite prospect at the QB position. He might be a "2nd round talent" but I'd move up in the 1st to get him, opinions be damned.
Posts: 12,689

04-14-2017, 11:12 PM	#7
Simply Red You Sweetie! Join Date: Sep 2005 Casino cash: $2021206219 VARSITY	do you guys think we have a chance against Pittsburgh? It's supposed to ice over Arrowhead. They'd moved the game to a later start time.
Posts: 71,691

04-14-2017, 11:27 PM	#9
SAGA45 Supporter Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: Compton, CA Casino cash: $4144955	Great read. I've always tried to look at the prospects based on the type of players Dorsey and Reid have drafted thus far. Each year there's been a new wrinkle but for the most part they've established a profile for each position and position group.
Posts: 1,576

04-15-2017, 06:19 AM	#10
Red Dawg Going home eventually Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $4432858	Good read and a correct analysis but KC is already desperate in my opinion. This team had no business going to the playoffs with a QB that stunk as bad as Alex. No team can rely each year on its defense getting 30 turnovers and dominating on special teams. We need a QB and need to stop with the next year we will like that class more bullshit. Make a move a grab one you like now. Every year we play Alex is a waste. Our schedule is going to be brutal and without the 30 plus turnovers we will need more points and let's face it Alex won't get them and he won't next year either. Staying the same doesn't make you better. What have we done to get better? Nothing at all, we have no money and keep sending out the same non capable of scoring QB. Go grab a young QB and for once really give him a shot. __________________ If you're not first you're last!
Posts: 30,489

04-15-2017, 07:28 AM	#12
Chief Roundup Admitted Planet Junky Join Date: Oct 2000 Casino cash: $1491627	I don't know if the organization is desperate or not. I can see where they might seem that way when compared to years past since we have visited with every QB prospect in this draft and they have never done that before. I know the fans are desperate for a QB and a deep push into the playoffs.
Posts: 19,252

04-15-2017, 09:43 AM	#15
Coogs In Search of a Life Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Northern Kansas Casino cash: $1024349	I like that the Chiefs seem to have an interest in Watson and Mahomes. I hope we are all in on one of them. If we spend a 2nd or 3rd on someone like Peterman, it pretty well says we are not drafting QB early next year.
Posts: 21,676