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Old 06-03-2017, 05:31 PM  
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A Saturday analysis of AFC West Drafting in the Dorsey era.

Using data from our friends at profootballreference, I downloaded the 2013-2016 drafts of the four AFC West teams. (I left 2017 out since the only thing we know about those players at this point is that Mahomes is Favre Reincarnated and Bolles is Forrest Gump.)

I then sorted them by where the players were selected in the draft, and compared their "Career Average Value" as calculated by profootballreference.

I made one adjustment to the numbers. I took the 2016 players and multiplied their AV by 4, the 2015 players by 2, and the 2014 players by 1.3 so that all players are essentially being measured on a four-year basis. This may understate and/or destabilize the contributions of younger players who have had less time to capture a starting role.

I'll cover each round in a post, and I'll split the first round into two parts since there's presumably a bigger talent spread there. In each round I'll list the team, player, pick#, Adjusted CarAV, and position.

So let's start with the top half of Round 1. Here are the players who were selected along with their Adjusted Career AV.

Code:
Team	Player	Pick	Adjusted CarAV	Pos
KC	Eric Fisher	1	27	T
SD	Joey Bosa	3	24	DE
Oak	Amari Cooper	4	38	WR
Oak	Khalil Mack	5	48	LB
SD	D.J. Fluker	11	29	T
Oak	D.J. Hayden	12	10	DB
Oak	Karl Joseph	14	16	S
SD	Melvin Gordon	15	30	RB
Average points per pick:

Oakland 28
San Diego, er, Los Angeles 28
Kansas City 27
Denver N/A

Oakland has had a lot of picks, and have both the best and worst. Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper are the highest rated guys in this group, even though we all know that Cooper is overrated. However, Oakland also has the least productive guys with their two defensive backs.

This group is primarily an Oakland and San Diego...er, Los Angeles show. Eric Fisher is the only exception, and he's ranked 5th of the 8 as part of a big clump in the middle.

Go to Post 2 for the back half of the round, and then the first several posts work through each subsequent round.

Last edited by Rain Man; 06-03-2017 at 08:24 PM..
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Old 06-03-2017, 05:34 PM   #2
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The back half of the first round is primarily a Denver show in terms of volume due to Peyton Manning's marketing value.

What we see here is that Peters has been a mega-super Mickey Mantle home run. Sylvester Williams has gotten some action, whoever he is, and the rest have been pretty meh. Paxton Lynch aspires to meh.

Code:
Team	Player	Pick	Adjusted CarAV	Pos
KC	Marcus Peters	18	46	CB
KC	Dee Ford	23	15	LB
Den	Shane Ray	23	16	DE
SD	Jason Verrett	25	16	DB
Den	Paxton Lynch	26	4	QB
Den	Sylv. Williams	28	23	DT
Den	Bradley Roby	31	11	DB
Average points per pick
Kansas City 30
San Diego, er, Los Angeles 16
Denver 13
Oakland N/A
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Last edited by Rain Man; 06-03-2017 at 06:18 PM..
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Old 06-03-2017, 05:39 PM   #3
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Round 2 is pretty interesting. Derek Carr is the big winner for teams that like emo quarterbacks, and the second-strongest pick is Mitch Morse.

You then drop to Chris Jones (who I suspect will rise), some linebacker for San Diego, and some terrorist for Oakland.

The big busts here so far are all Broncos - Cody Lattimer, Montee Ball, Ty Sambrailo, and Adam Gotsis. Sensing that he'd missed a bust in this round, Elway then went out and also got the fifth-worst guy in Menelik Watson. Denver really should bring in a monkey to make their Round 2 picks.

Code:
Team	Player	Pick	Adjusted CarAV	Pos
Oak	Mario Edwards	35	10	DT
SD	Hunter Henry	35	16	TE
Oak	Derek Carr	36	39	QB
KC	Chris Jones	37	24	DT
SD	Manti Te'o	38	14	LB
Oak	Menelik Watson	42	9	T
Oak	Jihad Ward	44	20	DE
SD	Denzel Perryman	48	20	ILB
KC	Mitch Morse	49	30	G
SD	Jer. Attaochu	50	11	LB
Den	Cody Latimer	56	1	WR
Den	Montee Ball	58	8	RB
Den	Ty Sambrailo	59	6	T
Den	Adam Gotsis	63	8	DT
Average points per pick
Kansas City 27
Oakland 19
San Diego, er, Los Angeles 15
Denver 6
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Last edited by Rain Man; 06-03-2017 at 06:20 PM..
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Old 06-03-2017, 05:46 PM   #4
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Round 3.

The big pick here is Travis Kelce, but PFR also likes Oakland's Gabe Jackson and San Diego's, er, Los Angeles' Keenan Allen, who just blew out a knee reading this. A distant fourth is some Denver linebacker I've never heard of.

The biggest busts are San Diego's, er, Los Angeles' center Max Tuerk, who somehow provided less value than our own KeiVarae Russell, whose name always takes me six tries to spell. Denver also whiffed with TE Jeff Heuerman.

Code:
Team	Player	Pick	Adjusted CarAV	Pos
KC	Travis Kelce	63	27	TE
Oak	Sio Moore	66	15	LB	
SD	Max Tuerk	66	0	C	
Oak	Clive Walford	68	12	TE
KC	Kei. Russell	74	4	CB
Oak	Shil. Calhoun	75	4	DE
KC	Chris Conley	76	14	WR
SD	Keenan Allen	76	21	WR
Oak	Gabe Jackson	81	23	G
SD	Craig Mager	83	8	CB
KC	Phillip Gaines	87	7	DB
SD	Chris Watt	89	5	G
Den	Kayvon Webster	90	5	DB
Den	Jeff Heuerman	92	2	TE
Den	Mi. Schofield	95	17	OL
KC	Knile Davis	96	10	RB
KC	Steven Nelson	98	12	CB
Den	Justin Simmons	98	8	FS
Average points per pick
Oakland 13
Kansas City 12
San Diego, er, Los Angeles 11
Denver 8
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Last edited by Rain Man; 06-03-2017 at 06:22 PM..
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Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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Old 06-03-2017, 05:49 PM   #5
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Starting in Round 4, you expect a lot of low-impact guys so the success factor is finding productive guys. The teams with success here are Devontae Booker (Broncos), Ramik Wilson (Chiefs), Max Garcia (Broncos), and Justin Ellis (Raiders). De'Anthony Thomas and Parker Ehinger are next in line, but notably behind the top four.

Oakland should stop drafting quarterbacks here.

Code:
Team	Player	Pick	Adjusted CarAV	Pos
KC	Nico Johnson	99	3	LB
Oak	Connor Cook	100	0	QB
SD	Joshua Perry	102	4	ILB
KC	Parker Ehinger	105	8	G
KC	Eric Murray	106	4	CB
Oak	Justin Ellis	107	16	DT
Oak	Tyler Wilson	112	0	QB
Oak	Keith McGill	116	4	DB
KC	Ramik Wilson	118	18	ILB
KC	De'Ant. Thomas	124	8	RB
KC	Demar. Robinson	126	0	WR
Oak	Jon Feliciano	128	6	G
Den	Max Garcia	133	18	C
Den	Devontae Booker	136	20	RB
Average points per pick
Denver 19
Kansas City 7
Oakland 5
San Diego, er, Los Angeles 4
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Last edited by Rain Man; 06-03-2017 at 06:23 PM..
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Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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Old 06-03-2017, 05:54 PM   #6
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Round 5. Hmm, what's the pattern here?

Well, there's Tyreek.

And then there's everyone else, who add up to about the same value.

There's Tyreek at #1.

After that, the winners are Oakland with DeAndre Washington, who I've never heard of, San Diego, er, Los Angeles with Jatavis Brown and Kyle Emanuel, and the Chiefs with special teams ace D.J. Alexander.

But this round is really all about Tyreek.

Code:
Team	Player	Pick	Adjusted CarAV	Pos
KC	Sand. Commings	134	0	DB
Oak	Ben Heeney	140	6	ILB
Oak	DeA. Washington	143	16	RB
Den	Connor McGovern	144	0	G
SD	Steve Williams	145	4	DB
Den	Quanterus Smith	146	1	DE
SD	Kyle Emanuel	153	14	OLB
Den	Lamin Barrow	156	3	LB
Den	Tavarres King	161	0	WR
Oak	Neiron Ball	161	2	OLB
KC	Kevin Hogan	162	4	QB
KC	Aaron Murray	163	0	QB
Den	Lorenzo Doss	164	0	CB
KC	Tyreek Hill	165	40	WR
SD	Ryan Carrethers	165	4	DT
KC	D.J. Alexander	172	10	OLB
KC	O'Shaughnessy	173	2	TE
SD	Jatavis Brown	175	16	OLB
Average points per pick
San Diego, er, Los Angeles 10
Kansas City 9
Oakland 8
Denver 1
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Last edited by Rain Man; 06-03-2017 at 06:24 PM..
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Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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Old 06-03-2017, 05:58 PM   #7
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Let's try Round 6 now.

The best Round 6 picks are Zach Fulton of the Chiefs, Latavious Murray of the Raiders, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif of the Chiefs, and Matt Paradis of the Broncos, in that order. Fulton for the win!


Code:
Team	Player	Pick	Adjusted CarAV	Pos
KC	Eric Kush	170	3	C
Oak	Nick Kasa	172	0	TE
Den	Vinston Painter	173	0	G
Den	Andy Janovich	176	4	FB
KC	D.J. White	178	4	CB
Oak	Max Valles	179	0	OLB
SD	Drew Kaser	179	12	P
SD	Tourek Williams	179	5	DE
Oak	Latavius Murray	181	18	RB
Oak	Mychal Rivera	184	9	TE
SD	Darius Philon	192	6	DT
KC	Zach Fulton	193	21	G
Oak	Cory James	194	12	OLB
SD	Derek Watt	198	4	FB
KC	Duvernay-Tardif	200	17	OL
SD	Marion Grice	201	0	RB
KC	Dadi Nicolas	203	4	DE
Den	Darius Kilgo	203	4	NT
KC	Braden Wilson	204	0	FB
Oak	Stacy McGee	205	10	DT
Den	Matt Paradis	207	16	OL
KC	R. Nunez-Roches	217	8	DT
Den	Will Parks	219	4	S
Average points per pick
Kansas City 8
Oakland 8
Denver 7
San Diego, er, Los Angeles 5
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Last edited by Rain Man; 06-03-2017 at 08:50 PM..
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Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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Old 06-03-2017, 06:03 PM   #8
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And finally, we move to Round 7, the land of Denver quarterbacks.

The first thing that jumps out at me is that the Chiefs had only 2 7th-round picks during this period. I'd never noticed that.

Obviously, Denver's simian quarterback wins this because, you know, Paxton Lynch. Other guys who have seized their opportunity are some other Denver guys I don't know (Riley Dixon and Corey Nelson), and a couple of Raiders (T.J. Carrie in 2nd overall, along with David Bass and Vadal Alexander).

Obviously, though, Catapano will dominate this group once he recovers from that virus.


Code:
Team	Player	Pick	Adjusted CarAV	Pos
KC	Mike Catapano	207	3	DE
Oak	Brice Butler	209	7	WR
Oak	Anthony Morris	218	0	OL
Oak	T.J. Carrie	219	12	DB
Oak	Andre Debose	221	0	WR
SD	Brad Sorensen	221	0	QB
SD	Donavon Clark	224	0	G
Den	Riley Dixon	228	8	P
KC	Da'Ron Brown	233	0	WR
Oak	David Bass	233	8	DE
Den	Zac Dysert	234	0	QB
Oak	Vadal Alexander	234	8	G
Oak	Shelby Harris	235	1	DE
SD	Tevin Reese	240	0	WR
Den	Corey Nelson	242	8	LB
Oak	Dexter McDonald	242	0	CB
Oak	Jon. Dowling	247	0	DB
Den	Trevor Siemian	250	18	QB
Den	Taurean Nixon	251	0	DB
Den	Josh Furman	252	0	DB
Average points per pick
Denver 5
Oakland 4
Kansas City 2
San Diego, er, Los Angeles 0
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Last edited by Rain Man; 06-03-2017 at 08:50 PM..
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Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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Old 06-03-2017, 07:04 PM   #9
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If you add up all of these averages, you can somewhat get a feel of how well each team is drafting. The figure is the total career AV that you'd expect if each team had 7 picks, 1 in each round.

Chiefs - 94
Raiders - 86
Chargers - 67
Broncos - 58

It seems like our long-term competition is going to be the Raiders. The Chiefs and Raiders are both drafting well, while the other two teams are not.
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Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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Old 06-03-2017, 07:25 PM   #10
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Excellent analysis!

How long did it take you compile and produce.

Thanks for creating!
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Old 06-03-2017, 07:27 PM   #11
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Old 06-03-2017, 07:27 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trivers View Post
Rep!

Excellent analysis!

How long did it take you compile and produce.

Thanks for creating!
Only about one meal's time at Wendy's, with two soda refills.

I really need to cut down on my soda.
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Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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Old 06-03-2017, 07:28 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball View Post
Jesus **** Elway is awful.
The thing I take away about Denver is that the first three rounds are killing them. Their starters are coming from the late rounds and their early rounds are abysmal.

In contrast, KC tends to find a jewel or two in every round over the four-year period.
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Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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Old 06-03-2017, 07:30 PM   #14
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Only about one meal's time at Wendy's, with two soda refills.

I really need to cut down on my soda.
Seriously?

it would take most people hours to do this.

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Old 06-03-2017, 07:46 PM   #15
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Jesus **** Elway is awful.
KnowShit and BJ will be in here soon to straighten us out and explain how ElFraud is the bestest drafter ever!!!
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