A Saturday analysis of AFC West Drafting in the Dorsey era.

[Rain Man]

Using data from our friends at profootballreference, I downloaded the 2013-2016 drafts of the four AFC West teams. (I left 2017 out since the only thing we know about those players at this point is that Mahomes is Favre Reincarnated and Bolles is Forrest Gump.)

I then sorted them by where the players were selected in the draft, and compared their "Career Average Value" as calculated by profootballreference.

I made one adjustment to the numbers. I took the 2016 players and multiplied their AV by 4, the 2015 players by 2, and the 2014 players by 1.3 so that all players are essentially being measured on a four-year basis. This may understate and/or destabilize the contributions of younger players who have had less time to capture a starting role.

I'll cover each round in a post, and I'll split the first round into two parts since there's presumably a bigger talent spread there. In each round I'll list the team, player, pick#, Adjusted CarAV, and position.

So let's start with the top half of Round 1. Here are the players who were selected along with their Adjusted Career AV.

Team	Player	Pick	Adjusted CarAV	Pos
KC	Eric Fisher	1	27	T
SD	Joey Bosa	3	24	DE
Oak	Amari Cooper	4	38	WR
Oak	Khalil Mack	5	48	LB
SD	D.J. Fluker	11	29	T
Oak	D.J. Hayden	12	10	DB
Oak	Karl Joseph	14	16	S
SD	Melvin Gordon	15	30	RB

Average points per pick:

Oakland 28
San Diego, er, Los Angeles 28
Kansas City 27
Denver N/A

Oakland has had a lot of picks, and have both the best and worst. Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper are the highest rated guys in this group, even though we all know that Cooper is overrated. However, Oakland also has the least productive guys with their two defensive backs.

This group is primarily an Oakland and San Diego...er, Los Angeles show. Eric Fisher is the only exception, and he's ranked 5th of the 8 as part of a big clump in the middle.

Go to Post 2 for the back half of the round, and then the first several posts work through each subsequent round.

[Rain Man]

Here are some more averages, which I'll add as I get time.

NFC South

Tampa - 84
Atlanta -78
Carolina - 79
New Orleans - 54

[Rain Man]

AFC East

New England - 66
Buffalo - 66
Miami - 59
New York Jets - 49

[Rain Man]

NFC North

Chicago - 87
Detroit - 76
Green Bay - 73
Minnesota - 71

[Quesadilla Joe]

Originally Posted by RunKC

This chart shows that the Chiefs and Raiders have the best management in the division and will be successful in the long term.

This chart shows that Elway's 2011 and 2012 drafts were better than Dorsey's 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 drafts combined.

Combined CarAV of Elway's 2011 and 2012 drafts = 284
Combined CarAV of Dorsey's 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 = 217

[Rain Man]

Pittsburgh - 64
Baltimore - 54
Cleveland - 52
Cincinnati - 45

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Quesadilla Joe

This chart shows that Elway's 2011 and 2012 drafts were better than Dorsey's 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 drafts combined.

Combined CarAV of Elway's 2011 and 2012 drafts = 284
Combined CarAV of Dorsey's 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 = 217

Career AV is a cumulative measure. You can't just add different years without adjusting. Right now the career AV of the 2017 class is zero for the entire league.

[Rain Man]

NFC East

Dallas - 92
New York Giants - 74
Washington - 72
Philadelphia - 67

[Rain Man]

AFC South

Indianapolis - 80
Tennessee - 78
Jacksonville - 71
Houston - 61

[Rain Man]

NFC West

Los Angeles Rams - 66
Arizona - 63
Seattle - 60
San Francisco - 48

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by Quesadilla Joe

This chart shows that Elway's 2011 and 2012 drafts were better than Dorsey's 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 drafts combined.

Combined CarAV of Elway's 2011 and 2012 drafts = 284
Combined CarAV of Dorsey's 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 = 217

Dorsey has more All-Pro's in fewer drafts

[Rain Man]

Okay, that's all the teams. Let's sort them out.

Elite (90+)

Kansas City - 94
Dallas - 92

Strong (80-89)

Chicago - 87
Oakland - 86
Rain Man - 86
Tampa - 84
Indianapolis - 80

Above Average (70-79)

Carolina - 79
Atlanta -78
Tennessee - 78
Detroit - 76
New York Giants - 74
Green Bay - 73
Washington - 72
Jacksonville - 71
Minnesota - 71

Below Average (60-69)

Los Angeles Chargers - 67
Philadelphia - 67
Los Angeles Rams - 66
New England - 66
Buffalo - 66
Pittsburgh - 64
Arizona - 63
Houston - 61
Seattle - 60

Bad (50-59)

Miami - 59
Denver Broncos - 58
Baltimore - 54
New Orleans - 54
Cleveland - 52

Worst of the Worst (Under 50)

New York Jets - 49
San Francisco - 48
Cincinnati - 45

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by Quesadilla Joe

This chart shows that Elway's 2011 and 2012 drafts were better than Dorsey's 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 drafts combined.

Combined CarAV of Elway's 2011 and 2012 drafts = 284
Combined CarAV of Dorsey's 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 = 217

you're a ****ing idiot

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by notorious

Wow, Denver might do better if they based their picks on what cardboard cutout a drunken monkey throws it's turds at.

Ron Wolf creates monsters. Elway has literally ZERO chance of ever being in the same zip code as Dorsey, especially since he now has to work at the gig instead of being gifted a sure fire HOF QB.

He.

Is.

****ed.

[jallmon]

Thank you for the analysis, Rain Man!

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO

you're a ****ing idiot

Send him back under the bridge. He violated his terms posting that garbage.