I guess at this point, it all comes down to Branden Albert.
 

Just some Chiefs-related rambling this morning. Take it or leave it.

If the team can't sign Branden Albert, or if they trade him, I have worlds of trouble figuring out how they draft anybody but Joeckel/Fisher at 1.1, even if they find a way to trade down, which I now suspect they will.

I'm obviously just one of you guys, but I do follow this shit pretty much every day. I'd say if they ink Albert longterm, that's the only way you avoid going tackle.

Put it like this. Chances of going Joeckel/Fisher:

• option A: they ink Albert long-term: 5%.
• option B: if they keep Albert on the franchise tag: 75%.
• option C: if they trade Albert away: 100%.

I just can't see any scenerio where we choose to let Albert go and they choose to go with Geno or either of the passrushers (Jordan or Ansah) that they obviously like a lot. I can see it happen with Albert on the tag, but even that's hard to see as they'd probably just love bookending Joeckel with Albert for a year before sliding Joeckel over to LT.

Here's the problem with that option, and why I think options A or C are the only viable solutions: if the team is incapable of landing a 2nd rounder for Albert in the 2013 draft, than the best they can hope for outside of doing this whole ordeal again in 2014 is a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2015. That's the deal: a 2nd rounder in 2013, or a 3rd rounder in 2015. That's why the Chiefs are trying to get rid of Albert now.

The fact Albert isn't showing up for practice, the only player to do so, is pretty damning as well. That shows option C to be waaaaaaaaaaaaaay out in the lead. Option A is far behind, and I don't even think option B has left the gates -- I simply don't regard it as a possibility.

The silver lining of all that, however, is the cap space. Losing Albert, much as I would hate it, means that we can replace him with Joeckel/Fisher and still have $10million in cap space to play with either this year or roll it over to 2014 for god knows who. And the player replacing Albert, at least, will be younger and cheaper for at least five years. So there's that.

What are the odds that Albert comes down on his contract demands if the Chiefs can't find adequate trade compensation? Perhaps Albert can take that as a sign, and just take a more manageable deal instead of initiating a year-plus contract battle with the Chiefs, playing under a one-year deal.

As for the non-tackle options with our 1st round pick, which I simply don't regard as a large possibility at this point: if the Chiefs stay at #1 overall, I don't think you can take either passrusher and feel good about yourself. I think both passrushers make a ton of sense at #4 (Eagles) or #5 (Browns), but again this assumes that the Chiefs have settled in with Albert for the long haul and aren't interested in Joeckel/Fisher. So I think the 1.1 becomes Geno Smith if, and only if, the Chiefs ink Albert long-term, or at least believe they will be able to do so. Any other variation: an Albert trade, or a trade down, means that Geno will not be the pick.

The Albert omens aren't good at this point. And based on some interesting observations from BossChief, I think the flurry of recent QB activity in the wake of KC hosting Geno this week means that it's come out that the Chiefs have secured a trade down partner as well. Which means I think the Chiefs are going to be trading down to #4 or #5. If that happens, if they plan on keeping Albert, I fully expect Dion Jordan or Ezekiel Ansah as heir apparents to/insurance for Tamba Hali in 2014, as I expect there will be a Dumervil-esque restructuring ordeal. If Albert's gone, well hey, they may still get Joeckel at that spot, or they'll settle for Fisher.

My guess: the Chiefs will find a trade partner for Albert, and get a 2nd rounder back in this year's draft for him, while landing another 2nd rounder in trading down from 1.1 to 1.4 or 1.5 with a team (Eagles or Browns?) who wants Geno. Like I said earlier, the good news is that we'll find a cheap, capable replacement for Albert and still have two seconds to play with.

That means two quality players with star potential, or the underrated possibility at this point that the Chiefs package those 2nd rounders and trade back into the 1st, should somebody exciting like OLB Bjoern Werner, OLB Damontre Moore, WR Justin Hunter, WR Cordarrelle Patterson, TE Tyler Eifert, or S Matt Elam falls a bit more than expected...

Like I said, just some ramblings this morning.

Lets assume we draft Jokel/Fisher and trade Albert for a 2nd this year and 3rd next.

What we have effectively done is take Alex Smith with 1.1. Also, because of Smiths cap number, we also have the same amount of cap space had we say, kept Albert on the franchise tag and drafted Geno at 1.

gg.

Not necessarily.

First of all, it's unlikely we get that kind of compensation for Albert. A 2nd rounder is probably it. If you're the team trading for him, you've got to pay us AND him. That drives down our asking price to something more humble, like a 2nd this year alone.

If that's what happens, then we've essentially traded Albert for Smith.

Yes.

Yup. Traded Albert + a HIGH 2nd + a 2013 conditional 3rd to move down in the 2nd + Alex Smith. :thumb:

:banghead:

Cant leave out the replacement LT we'll get at 1.1 that won't upgrade the position.

:Lin:

Trading an OL for a starting QB is a trade I'll make every day of the week.

Trading one of the best LTs in the NFL for just any starting QB is a trade I likely pass on every day of the week, considering you aren't going to be getting offers from the Patriots for Brady or Packers for Rodgers.

So the Chiefs have a trade partner, multiple NFL teams know about it and are making moves in response to it, yet not a single person with the Chiefs, with the trading partner, or with any of these other teams have leaked a single word about it to anyone?

This seems somewhat unlikely.

Eh, I can buy it.

Those in the know are operating on levels we often never know about.

We were 2-15 last year. No one position will effect our loss-win column more than a QB. Yes, even super all world only-allowed-one-sack Brandon Albert.

So if the Chiefs have a trade partner already for the #1 pick, it's safe to assume they've already agreed on the terms of a trade, right?

What is their incentive to not trading the pick already?

At this point, I think this is the best we can hope for.

Trade Albert for a 2nd. Trade back from 1.1 for another 2nd. Take Fisher or Joeckel and see if they can do anything exciting with those two 2nds.

The only caveat I'd throw in that senario is that if you feel Jordan or Ziggy is the going to become an elite pass rusher, I'd be okay with going that route in round 1 and figuring out LT in another way. Say 2nd? I mean is there some law that says you have to draft your LT in the first only? Again that's only if you feel you have an elite pass rusher staring you in the face.

Pass rusher I think is almost as big as a need given that you can never have enough, we only have 2, and one will be 30 this next season.

Sorry. I don't give a shit about being mediocre with Alex never-gonna-take-you-to-anything-worth-a-shit Smith.

If his special teams doesn't implode, Alex Smith takes the 49ers to the Super Bowl in 2011.

Do you honestly believe Alex Smith was the reason the 49ers were even in a position for their special teams to blow a SB appearance?

Personally, I don't believe their 29th ranked passing attack was cause for the 49ers success.

Alex was a big part of their success and to say otherwise is just hate!

I think it is quite clear Albert is getting traded. If their was a long term deal in the works, he would know it by now. The new regime has put very little to no effort in re-signing him long term. They moved swiftly with Bowe/Colquitt and all of their other moves have been swift with a plan.

This staling by the Chiefs brass is just leverage for trade possibilities in the draft and trying to milk more in a trade with Albert. I know from a personal perspective it sucks for Albert but this is a business move first and foremost... he is just a pawn.

Smith was the QB. He was on the verge of getting his team to the Super Bowl before the team's special teams crapped the bed. That runs counter to your claim. You can split the hairs any way you want, but that's how it happened.

Split hairs? LMAO

You can act like Smith was leading that team all you want. That's not the case.

If we replace Albert with Joeckel, Alex Smith won't even make it to the midway point.

I'm not acting like anything. I'm pointing out that your post was wrong, nothing more.

Point out the "wrong" part.

Did he "take" them to the SB or did he ALMOST "take" them to the SB.

If the answer is "ALMOST" then you are wrong and should stop talking.

That is your opinion but not fact. Others will believe that Joeckel will do more than good his rookie year. He is a very polished prospect.

As much of a part of the 49ers as Trent Dilfer was to the Ravens.

Still was a quality part. Who was the one limiting turnovers to allow the big weapons to succeed?

You know who else was a very polished prospect?

http://i48.tinypic.com/11v7gpl.jpg

Let's not act like tackles are super safe picks.

Jason Brown, Robert Gallery, Levi Brown, Mike Williams, Kenyatta Walker, and Tony Ugoh all agree with this.

:facepalm:

I'd have just a soon had Matt Flynn for a 5th in 2014

Direckshun,
Problem is nobody wants Geno enough to trade with the Chiefs. They're betting that he will be there when they pick. If I were in thier position, I'd be following the same strategy.

What exactly is it about Albert's style of play that Reid doesn't like?

I don't think it is totally his play but more so getting someone cheaper, younger and possibly in their opinion will be better than Albert.

Where does it say this?

I was under the impression that Reid was a fan.

Albert can't hold blocks and it's because he lacks those type techniques.

What? You said that Joeckel was a "very polished prospect." Everyone of those names that I gave were also "very polished prospects." The tackle is not a safe position, neither is the QB. However, the QB is much more important than a tackle. The best thing this team can do for its long-term success is taking a chance on a QB with the pick and grooming him for the future, while keeping the very good LT that it already has.

Yes, because QBs need at least seven to ten seconds in the pocket.

:facepalm: Have you noticed the shitfest he's been protecting in KC?

The tackle is a safer prospect though so it's not as clear cut as you seem to be trying to make it. And in addition to that, you have to factor in the evaluation of the actual individuals you're choosing between.

The reason the tackle is safer, is because when an LT busts, you can usually turn him into a serviceable player either at RT or as a G. When a QB busts, he sits on the bench or gets drummed out of the league altogether.

Beyond that, it's possible that the Chiefs see Geno as a high bust probability and Joeckle as a low bust probability based on their individual characteristics.

I already have. In order to get in position to be in the Super Bowl, he had to take his team to the NFCCG. It's common sense.

I guess in your mind you have.

In reality... you haven't proven anyone wrong but yourself.

Ok, so it really comes down to you being an idiot. You could have saved us both some time by just admitting that.

Says the person saying Alex Smith lead the 49ers somewhere LMAO

Carry on. Moron.

Alex Smith got his team to the NFCCG and was a special teams collapse away from getting his team into the SB. As I said before, you can split the hairs any way you want to, but that's what happened.

LMAO

Yep. Sad but true.

We are about to trade away the same guy we traded UP to get and has proven himself and wants to be here.

in exchange we will get a failed Alex Smith, and use 1.1 to draft an overrated Joekel.

Albert, as much as I like him, is not one of the best LTs in the NFL. You're just being delusional. He is a good LT, make no mistake, but to say he is one of the best is talking with the homer glasses on.

Yeah, because "upgrading" their QB from Dilfer so that they could be a dynasty worked out so well for them.

http://jeffpearlman.com/wp-content/u...16-750-941.jpg

Do you have a point?

Pretty sure you are the delusional one.

He's one of the best pass blockers in the league.

He is one of the best. No homer bullshit here.

have you noticed he plays OT like a OG? Albert doesn't engage his man.

I have said many times on this board I would like Albert to remain a Chief, but I'm not gonna sugar coat him. Reid likes big OT's that hold blocks.

No what you've done is trade Brandon Albert for Alex Smith. Then drafted Albert's replacement at 1.1 because they evaluate OT as much better draft prospect then QB.

Who's better than Albert?

Then it makes zero sense to draft Joeckel, who doesn't demonstrate very often in his Texas A&M games the ability to hold blocks.

Fisher is Andy's guy if that's what he likes.

Apparently Joekel and/or Fisher are.

Plus, the Chiefs still have Geno in town today. Wouldn't that be a waste of time?

Eugene Monroe. Only reason why he gave up more sacks is because we had 0 running game last year.

Not when it potentially leads to more draft picks.

Then that's fine, but it's pretty obvious this regime doesn't want Albert as their LT.

I don't know if pointing out how weak he was in the NFCCG is really splitting hairs. Or pointing out that his team was stacked as hell. Alex played better in the Saints game than I thought he could. I do know that most of his play outside of that game leads me to think he isn't taking this team anywhere special, but he is a lot better than Cassel IMO. Thing is that isn't the goal. We shall see.

As TBG pointed out earlier, Reid isn't going to coddle Alex. At the very least we should see Alex's feet held to the fire.

Can a prospect from Texas A&M really be a polished prospect?

I would rather see the Chiefs keep Albert and draft Joeckel letting him play RT as a rookie. When Albert leaves next year move Joeckel to the left side and find another RT. By then Stephenson might be ready to take the starting RT role.

At least not at the price Albert thinks he's worth.

It wouldn't surprise me if some of this is posturing to get Albert to sign a more team friendly deal. I guess we'll see how much Albert really wants to remain a Chief.

Signing Albert long term would free up about 3 mil in cap space which that money will be used towards draft picks.

:clap:

@MoveTheSticks: 2nd round is going to be outstanding in this draft! Immediate starters at WR, CB, LB, DT and TE...

This was part of the anger about trading for Alex. We have all been drooling about what we were going to have a chance to get at #34. If we collect picks, I wouldn't be looking to trade back into the first. I don't see many scenarios where the guy at #22 is better than the two guys we would get at #39 and #46 or something like that.

I hate this argument.

Cassel was historically bad. Drew Stanton would have been an upgrade.

Hence the next sentence.

As soon as Direckshun's bitch ass buckles down and comes up with some suitable terms for my bet with him, we'll have to see.

I happen to believe he's not nearly as polished as people think. He's just more of the same in a draft that has no elite prospects at any position.

Well, Smith is better.

Of course, that doesn't mean SB appearances.

It should mean they will be a lot more competitive.

Your not alone. I'm don't see Joeckel in the same class with other tackles taken first pick in the draft (Jake Long, Orlando Pace, Ron Yary). He may be the right pick for 1.1, but I don't believe he is as ready as the pundits are claiming. The last time a quality OT prospect from Texas A&M did well in the NFL was Rex Tucker in 1999. Next best was Corey Clark in 2008. How much is Joeckel a product of Johnny Manziel?

Or visa versa