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Old 04-02-2013, 06:59 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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I guess at this point, it all comes down to Branden Albert.

Just some Chiefs-related rambling this morning. Take it or leave it.

If the team can't sign Branden Albert, or if they trade him, I have worlds of trouble figuring out how they draft anybody but Joeckel/Fisher at 1.1, even if they find a way to trade down, which I now suspect they will.

I'm obviously just one of you guys, but I do follow this shit pretty much every day. I'd say if they ink Albert longterm, that's the only way you avoid going tackle.

Put it like this. Chances of going Joeckel/Fisher:
  • option A: they ink Albert long-term: 5%.
  • option B: if they keep Albert on the franchise tag: 75%.
  • option C: if they trade Albert away: 100%.
I just can't see any scenerio where we choose to let Albert go and they choose to go with Geno or either of the passrushers (Jordan or Ansah) that they obviously like a lot. I can see it happen with Albert on the tag, but even that's hard to see as they'd probably just love bookending Joeckel with Albert for a year before sliding Joeckel over to LT.

Here's the problem with that option, and why I think options A or C are the only viable solutions: if the team is incapable of landing a 2nd rounder for Albert in the 2013 draft, than the best they can hope for outside of doing this whole ordeal again in 2014 is a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2015. That's the deal: a 2nd rounder in 2013, or a 3rd rounder in 2015. That's why the Chiefs are trying to get rid of Albert now.

The fact Albert isn't showing up for practice, the only player to do so, is pretty damning as well. That shows option C to be waaaaaaaaaaaaaay out in the lead. Option A is far behind, and I don't even think option B has left the gates -- I simply don't regard it as a possibility.

The silver lining of all that, however, is the cap space. Losing Albert, much as I would hate it, means that we can replace him with Joeckel/Fisher and still have $10million in cap space to play with either this year or roll it over to 2014 for god knows who. And the player replacing Albert, at least, will be younger and cheaper for at least five years. So there's that.

What are the odds that Albert comes down on his contract demands if the Chiefs can't find adequate trade compensation? Perhaps Albert can take that as a sign, and just take a more manageable deal instead of initiating a year-plus contract battle with the Chiefs, playing under a one-year deal.

As for the non-tackle options with our 1st round pick, which I simply don't regard as a large possibility at this point: if the Chiefs stay at #1 overall, I don't think you can take either passrusher and feel good about yourself. I think both passrushers make a ton of sense at #4 (Eagles) or #5 (Browns), but again this assumes that the Chiefs have settled in with Albert for the long haul and aren't interested in Joeckel/Fisher. So I think the 1.1 becomes Geno Smith if, and only if, the Chiefs ink Albert long-term, or at least believe they will be able to do so. Any other variation: an Albert trade, or a trade down, means that Geno will not be the pick.

The Albert omens aren't good at this point. And based on some interesting observations from BossChief, I think the flurry of recent QB activity in the wake of KC hosting Geno this week means that it's come out that the Chiefs have secured a trade down partner as well. Which means I think the Chiefs are going to be trading down to #4 or #5. If that happens, if they plan on keeping Albert, I fully expect Dion Jordan or Ezekiel Ansah as heir apparents to/insurance for Tamba Hali in 2014, as I expect there will be a Dumervil-esque restructuring ordeal. If Albert's gone, well hey, they may still get Joeckel at that spot, or they'll settle for Fisher.

My guess: the Chiefs will find a trade partner for Albert, and get a 2nd rounder back in this year's draft for him, while landing another 2nd rounder in trading down from 1.1 to 1.4 or 1.5 with a team (Eagles or Browns?) who wants Geno. Like I said earlier, the good news is that we'll find a cheap, capable replacement for Albert and still have two seconds to play with.

That means two quality players with star potential, or the underrated possibility at this point that the Chiefs package those 2nd rounders and trade back into the 1st, should somebody exciting like OLB Bjoern Werner, OLB Damontre Moore, WR Justin Hunter, WR Cordarrelle Patterson, TE Tyler Eifert, or S Matt Elam falls a bit more than expected...

Like I said, just some ramblings this morning.
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Old 04-02-2013, 07:07 AM   #2
hometeam hometeam is offline
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Lets assume we draft Jokel/Fisher and trade Albert for a 2nd this year and 3rd next.

What we have effectively done is take Alex Smith with 1.1. Also, because of Smiths cap number, we also have the same amount of cap space had we say, kept Albert on the franchise tag and drafted Geno at 1.

gg.
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Old 04-02-2013, 07:10 AM   #3
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hometeam View Post
Lets assume we draft Jokel/Fisher and trade Albert for a 2nd this year and 3rd next.

What we have effectively done is take Alex Smith with 1.1. Also, because of Smiths cap number, we also have the same amount of cap space had we say, kept Albert on the franchise tag and drafted Geno at 1.

gg.
Not necessarily.

First of all, it's unlikely we get that kind of compensation for Albert. A 2nd rounder is probably it. If you're the team trading for him, you've got to pay us AND him. That drives down our asking price to something more humble, like a 2nd this year alone.

If that's what happens, then we've essentially traded Albert for Smith.
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Old 04-02-2013, 07:10 AM   #4
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Old 04-02-2013, 07:13 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
If that's what happens, then we've essentially traded Albert for Smith.
Yup. Traded Albert + a HIGH 2nd + a 2013 conditional 3rd to move down in the 2nd + Alex Smith.



Cant leave out the replacement LT we'll get at 1.1 that won't upgrade the position.

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Old 04-02-2013, 07:18 AM   #6
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Trading an OL for a starting QB is a trade I'll make every day of the week.
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Old 04-02-2013, 07:20 AM   #7
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Trading an OL for a starting QB is a trade I'll make every day of the week.
Trading one of the best LTs in the NFL for just any starting QB is a trade I likely pass on every day of the week, considering you aren't going to be getting offers from the Patriots for Brady or Packers for Rodgers.
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Old 04-02-2013, 07:20 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
And based on some interesting observations from BossChief, I think the flurry of recent QB activity in the wake of KC hosting Geno this week means that it's come out that the Chiefs have secured a trade down partner as well.
So the Chiefs have a trade partner, multiple NFL teams know about it and are making moves in response to it, yet not a single person with the Chiefs, with the trading partner, or with any of these other teams have leaked a single word about it to anyone?

This seems somewhat unlikely.
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Old 04-02-2013, 07:21 AM   #9
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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So the Chiefs have a trade partner, multiple NFL teams know about it and are making moves in response to it, yet not a single person with the Chiefs, with the trading partner, or with any of these other teams have leaked a single word about it to anyone?

This seems somewhat unlikely.
Eh, I can buy it.

Those in the know are operating on levels we often never know about.
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Old 04-02-2013, 07:23 AM   #10
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Trading one of the best LTs in the NFL for just any starting QB is a trade I likely pass on every day of the week, considering you aren't going to be getting offers from the Patriots for Brady or Packers for Rodgers.
We were 2-15 last year. No one position will effect our loss-win column more than a QB. Yes, even super all world only-allowed-one-sack Brandon Albert.
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Old 04-02-2013, 07:24 AM   #11
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So if the Chiefs have a trade partner already for the #1 pick, it's safe to assume they've already agreed on the terms of a trade, right?

What is their incentive to not trading the pick already?
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Old 04-02-2013, 07:25 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
My guess: the Chiefs will find a trade partner for Albert, and get a 2nd rounder back in this year's draft for him, while landing another 2nd rounder in trading down from 1.1 to 1.4 or 1.5 with a team (Eagles or Browns?) who wants Geno. Like I said earlier, the good news is that we'll find a cheap, capable replacement for Albert and still have two seconds to play with.
At this point, I think this is the best we can hope for.

Trade Albert for a 2nd. Trade back from 1.1 for another 2nd. Take Fisher or Joeckel and see if they can do anything exciting with those two 2nds.

The only caveat I'd throw in that senario is that if you feel Jordan or Ziggy is the going to become an elite pass rusher, I'd be okay with going that route in round 1 and figuring out LT in another way. Say 2nd? I mean is there some law that says you have to draft your LT in the first only? Again that's only if you feel you have an elite pass rusher staring you in the face.

Pass rusher I think is almost as big as a need given that you can never have enough, we only have 2, and one will be 30 this next season.
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Old 04-02-2013, 07:26 AM   #13
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We were 2-15 last year. No one position will effect our loss-win column more than a QB. Yes, even super all world only-allowed-one-sack Brandon Albert.
Sorry. I don't give a shit about being mediocre with Alex never-gonna-take-you-to-anything-worth-a-shit Smith.
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:17 AM   #14
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Sorry. I don't give a shit about being mediocre with Alex never-gonna-take-you-to-anything-worth-a-shit Smith.
If his special teams doesn't implode, Alex Smith takes the 49ers to the Super Bowl in 2011.
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:20 AM   #15
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If his special teams doesn't implode, Alex Smith takes the 49ers to the Super Bowl in 2011.
Do you honestly believe Alex Smith was the reason the 49ers were even in a position for their special teams to blow a SB appearance?

Personally, I don't believe their 29th ranked passing attack was cause for the 49ers success.
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