You know, at this point if the Steelers and Cincy both lose today the Colts will be 2 games ahead of everyone else for a playoff spot. Colts play Houston 2 of the last 3 weeks so I wouldn't bet on this... but you run the risk of the Colts having nothing to play for either if all these teams keep losing.

That's what tough about this, you don't know what teams will be playing hard and which ones won't with so many teams way out front in their playoff races.

The Chiefs had no turnovers and like 1 penalty today. That won't happen again the rest of the season.

Browns have their game won.

How does that help us?

Or is it all about Jacksonville?

It's likely going to come down to losing at OAK to ensure the #1 overall pick.

Browns are pretty much eliminated. Had it been a tie, both the Browns and the Raiders would have been out.

I would guess it eliminates Cleveland and makes it a four team race with us, Jacksonville, Oakland, and Carolina with a tiny chance

I meant Philly not carolina

So if we lose to Cleveland, but beat Oakland, what are our chances?

I don't remember the last time a 3-13 team had the #1 pick.

If Kc and Oakland end up tied Oakland would get the top pick. That game in 2 weeks is big.

The SOS tiebreaker is fluid, but right now Oakland has the tiebreaker on us. (so does philly, but with their remaining schedule, that wont continue to be the case) That tiebreak might hold because Oakland's remaining schedule mostly sucks. So, we definitely need to lose to Oakland to put them out. Our 1 win cant be that one.

In any case we still must lose out unless Jacksonville wins 1, then we must lose at least 3 more games.

We really need Jacksonville to win one more.

Drops us to 54%
Bumps Oakland to 15%

I think that Jac wins against NYJ and they certainly have a chance against Tennessee.

Oakland worries me. Really need for McFadden to get healthy and for them to beat us.

We are literally two weeks from the #1 pick. It is stressful that these two weeks could stop us from getting Geno.

We had a comfortable lead going into the day and we pissed it all away in a single week.

Chiefs will win last week Denver will have nothing to play for.




EDIT Nevermind Ravens shit the Bed.

Even if we lose the next two we only have an 85% chance of getting the number 1 pick. Long way to go.

I"M BUYING A ****ING HENNE JERSEY!!!!!!!!!!

#1 KC 2-10 .515 SOS
#2 JAX 2-10 .577 SOS
#3 OAK 3-9 .508 SOS
#4 CAR 3-9 .533 SOS
#5 PHI 3-8 .492 SOS

Jacksonville's remaining schedule is tough, so they have zero chance at winning a tiebreak. They must lose out and hope for a KC win.

Oakland needs Jacksonville and KC to lose a game. If that happens, the SOS tiebreak with KC will be close.

Carolina needs at least 1 win from Jacksonville (they might win that tiebreak), 2+ wins from KC, and 1 win from Oakland.

Philly is in worse shape than Carolina and is basically eliminated (though maybe the OP will produce a few simulations where they somehow make it) unless everyone starts winning games. That SOS is going to skyrocket.

Chiefs- 2-10 @CLE, @OAK ,IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-10 NYJ, @MIA , NE, @TEN
Carolina- 3-9 ATL , @SD , OAK , @NO
Oakland- 3-9 DEN , KC , @CAR , @SD
Browns- 4-8 KC , WASH , @DEN , @PITT
Eagels- 3-8 @TB , CINN , WASH , @NYG



Just don't see. Chiefs could go 5-11 and end up picking out of the top 5.

It's possible that the defense will be without DJ, Flowers, Lewis, for a while. Dorsey already out as well.


You think we can stop Richardson next week without both our starting MLB's? Nah.

Palmer and Luck will rip up our patchwork secondary as well.

People are failing to realize just how shitty the Panthers were/are.

Although, I think our offense might actually put some things together so there is that.

Oakland is really the only game that worries me.

Browns are a physical team, we don't beat physical teams. Manning and Luck will be enough to beat us too.

Reggie Wayne/Josh Gordon/DHB vs. Thorpe makes me lol

LMAO. LOL. Wait...LMAOLMAO

Hopefully the Iggles win tonight. They could beat Dallas.

On average the difference between a win and a loss in week 17 for Denver is the difference in 0.6 seed positions. Going into the week they are going to have even more uncertainty. It's pretty unlikely Denver is going to clinch their seed with one week to go.

Ravens outcome didn't affect that too much.

Which of those teams are most likely to draft QB? I know if we don't have the pick and the #1 pick doesn't want Geno we'll probably be too gutless to trade up, but just out of curiosity, who among the five will pick Geno?

Browns and Oakland are winnable games. Denver might not have anything to play for.

We need McFadden to get healthy.


Richardson will run all over us next week. Could be without both starting ILB's, Flowers and Lewis on D.

It will get destroyed the next couple weeks.

We need to lose the next 3 IMO. It's all about the next 3.

It's just so ****ing infuriating to be THIS CLOSE to a potential franchise QB.

And thinking about falling short.

Patriotards, just lose. For us.

Yea, I hope we lose the last three and JAX wins one so we can ram in in denver's ass at the end of the season.

Now:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Just think 1 Long Charles run and a Murder away from being 0-12

I'm not sure a team like the Raiders would necessarily take a QB. They have so many other holes and Palmer has actually played really well.


Jacksonville on the other hand, will for sure.

So we may have to settle for Wilson if things don't go our way.

If the Browns kick our ass next week and Jacksonville wins, that would do wonders.

Did something happen to DJ? He looked fine in the post-game press conference clip that I saw.

Jax, oak, Philly
Posted via Mobile Device

He didn't play the last couple possessions.

Your system is flawed. Oakland and Philly look like they'll never win another game. The Chiefs will get at least 1 win. That's why I'm not buying that 55% number.

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet

Good news for #Raiders... and @NFLNetwork. RT @CorkOnTheNFL: Coach Allen said he expects McFadden to play Thursday night.

His system has been dead on as long as I can remember.

If McCoy and Vick come back, the Eagles can win a game.

I don't know how you say the system is flawed, but then in the next sentence state your own opinion about how it shakes out.

The Chiefs do not play a defense as bad as the Panthers again this year. They aren't winning another game.

Hope your right.

To be honest, I think there's going to be conflicting opinions among teams who is the true #1 QB.

It's not like if we do win a game and miss out on it, there's Andrew Luck sitting there.

I knew that was how the asshole should come back. twitter says something, ceedy's system is flawed
Posted via Mobile Device

People were saying the Chiefs wouldn't win another game last week. Now you have them sweeping their remaining games. The inherent strength of this system is that it rationally calculates the odds of the outcome of each game without human biases.

I saw him on the sidelines, but I think that was a formation package. We had eight defensive backs in, with Hali, Poe, and one other guy rushing. (Houston?) I remember being surprised that he was out, but he looked like he was just watching.

I'm not positive that I'd rather have our eighth defensive back in the game over DJ, regardless of the formation.

He was taken out of the game, went to the locker room and came back out with ice on his hamstring.

He's the only Lb we actually leave in on sub stuff, why would we replace him with Greenwood if he wasn't hurt?

He tweaked his hammy chasing Cam Newton and didn't come back after that.

I don't think the Raiders win another game this year....

Also the Faid have the Chargers, and they are in complete disarray.

That Tebow vs the Jags game next week will be fun LOL

The Chargers have about a 0.5 to 1% chance to get the overall #1. They are part of "the field".

Meant that the Faid could beat the Chargers.

ESPN Stats & Info ‏@ESPNStatsInfo

Eagles enter tonight with 7-game losing streak; haven't lost 8 straight in single season since 1968


Hope the Eagles win tonight.

And I was agreeing that the Chargers are terrible.

No chance in hell, there is zero defense at the Raiders...

I enjoy a season with a dramatic ending. Will we make it? Will we fail? We still control our own destiny, so it's up to the fine warriors in red.

Raiders are worst in NFL in points against.

Oh, go to hell, we're losing to you in 2 weeks. Two weeks, YOU HEAR ME?!? We're going DOWN!

The Chiefs scored 13 points against them at home...and 7 of them were in garbage time.

We can never seem to run block very well against them, so we become one dimensional...And I know Quinn played the best game a Chiefs QB has played this year, but I can't see him playing that well again this year, especially on the road.

Not unless you break Charles' leg ....

Seriously, we have the worst defense I have ever seen in my entire life.

Chiefs 27... Raiders 20

We really haven't been able to block well against them in any aspect recently.

The end of season tiebreakers for the overall #1 pick breakdown like this:

Against the Jags we almost always win

Against the Raiders we always lose.

Against Phili we win about 82% of the tiebreakers.

A lot of people around here have wanted McElroy to start over Sanchez. There will be a good amount of push to keep him in over Tebow.

How often does a 4-game winner get the #1 pick? (and whats the distribution of teams for that unlikely scenario?)

My simulator isn't really set up to answer this question easily, but a 4 win team will get the #1 pick in roughly 6% of the seasons, with Oakland the most likely team to be in this situation.

Carr just helped us a bit.

Chiefs- 2-10 @CLE, @OAK ,IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-10 NYJ, @MIA , NE, @TEN
Carolina- 3-9 ATL , @SD , OAK , @NO
Oakland- 3-9 DEN , KC , @CAR , @SD
Eagels- 3-9 @TB , CINN , WASH , @NYG
Browns- 4-8 KC , WASH , @DEN , @PITT


Updated

The Panthers are shit as well so Oak might sneak a win in there.


In the end tho, we've come to far to **** up now. Just swallow that pill and lose out.

Shawn Zobel ‏@ShawnZobel_DHQ

Current 2013 NFL Draft order following today's games: 1. Kansas City, 2. Jacksonville, 3. Oakland, 4. Philadelphia, 5. Carolina

Is MJD coming back this year?

Not sure but i really think they can beat the Jets at home this week.

Calling it now Oakland beats Denver Thursday night.

That would be very, very good news.

We should still be concerned about Jacksonville, but if we both won a game, Oakland would be our biggest threat.

We just need to lose out.


Which is quite possible. Need to just sit Flowers, DJ and Lewis the rest of the way out.

What?! The true fans are just starting to have fun. Imagine how great it would feel to win another game or two. Would make the team feel good about themselves.

The more you hear and see over the losing seasons, the more this fan base deserves what it gets. Sucks for us though. People just don't really care if we win a SB. It would be nice, but not at the expense of fun on the NEXT game day.

Brad Pitt, Moneyball, trade deadline scene:

(about Geno Smith) Oh, I want this one bad....

Zobel is a moron but I hope he gets this right.

For the first time all season, I've got a bad feeling. Bad as in the Chiefs choose Te'o with like the 4th pick and Glennon in the second round.

Ugh.

I will not be happy. Taking an ILB in the top 10 is a mistake IMO.

Drafting Glennon as your franchise QB would be a mistake as well.