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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012
nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).
Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
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Old 09-26-2012, 08:17 PM   #2
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Win distribution after week 3:
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Old 09-26-2012, 08:18 PM   #3
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Draft odds after week 3:
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Old 09-26-2012, 08:19 PM   #4
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ummmmm....


D) All of the above?
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Old 09-26-2012, 08:21 PM   #5
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Hmmm. That second one is a little lopsided for my taste. Looks like it has a pretty nasty mole, too.

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Old 09-26-2012, 08:25 PM   #6
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Our odds of making the playoffs are lower than Cassel's odds of beating playoff teams.

Sounds about right, since he would have to beat multiple playoff teams in order for us to make the playoffs!
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Old 09-26-2012, 08:26 PM   #7
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What are the odds that we draft a QB in the first rnd...?

Can your calculator do that...?
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Old 09-26-2012, 08:31 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by Mr_Tomahawk View Post
What are the odds that we draft a QB in the first rnd...?

Can your calculator do that...?
Calculators work on logic, and Pioli's brain is illogical.
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Old 09-26-2012, 08:34 PM   #9
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Oh ... I get it now. Each graph is only for KC. I couldn't figure it out at first on account of all the team names on the left.

So, the most probable scenario at this point is 6 "additional" wins or 6 "total" wins?

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Old 09-26-2012, 08:36 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FAX View Post
Oh ... I get it now. Each graph is only for KC. I couldn't figure it out at first on account of all the team names on the left.

So, the most probable scenario at this point is 6 "additional" wins or 6 "total" wins?

FAX
Total wins.
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Old 09-26-2012, 08:37 PM   #11
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Old 09-26-2012, 08:38 PM   #12
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Old 09-26-2012, 08:44 PM   #13
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The pockmark factor makes any calculations unreliable.
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Old 09-26-2012, 08:45 PM   #14
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Total wins.
Ouch.

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Old 09-26-2012, 08:45 PM   #15
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I struggle with graph reading, so correct me if I'm wrong.

The odds suggest at this point that the Chiefs are most likely to draft number 6 overall?
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