The AFC is bad and the Chiefs haven't even reached 8 losses yet, so no.

Probably have another month to go before they are mathematically, assuming they continue to go winless.

yea thats what I thought. Just wondered because the graph says 0%

awww yeah

https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphot...02275197_n.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/5852l.jpg

wow it will be pretty cool if we do get a 1st overall pick

it will be our super bowl


I hope the project freakishly amazing yet not quite ready for NFL D-Lineman we end up with turns out to be a beast in 2017

I prefer stats in pie chart form

I prefer pie in bar chart form.

That first one is like the size of my boner the closer we get to the top pick.

I just hope Clark fires Pioli because if he doesn't I would put it at 50-50 of Pioli taking a qb at that spot of trading down and taking another position and taking a qb in the second or third round.

Don't do that!

Omaha. Can we outsuck Jax? Omaha.

Jax would beat us by 20. We are the worst team any of us will ever watch.

Oh damn, good point. To avoid this I am now going to root for them to win a couple games and finish like 5-11. It won't due us any good whatsoever but at least the world will be black and white to me again. Admitting there is a grey area gives me a headache anyway........

It should be pointed out that we have a 62 percent chance at the #1 pick.

The next closest team,JAX, is only at 20 percent and Cleveland is at 9 percent.

How the **** is Jax only at 20%?

No idea. They have to play the Titans 2X, the NYJ, Miami and Buffalo. I could see them winning 2-3 games.

Because we are that ****ing bad.

We have been blown out MORE than the Jags this year AND over the last four years.

Improved play by the Chiefs and worse play by the Jags have dropped our odds of getting the overall #1 pick to 57%.

I must have missed a game...

HELL YES, LET'S DANCE

Factoids.

If we win the rest of our games, we have a 25% chance of making the playoffs at 8-8.

Even under certain 7-9 scenarios, we can qualify for the playoffs, either as a division winner or as a wild card.

Oh cool, sign Pioli to an extension while they are hot :D

I guess that's not too surprising. Even though the AFC has improved a bit... right now the six playoff teams are the only teams with winning records. The 1st team out of the playoffs is still the Chargers at 4-5, but they're two games out of the 6 seed.

On the flipside, the Steelers could be hurting now too with Ben out. The AFC is in pretty rough shape. The most amazing thing may be how great our odds to be the worst team are. There aren't many world beaters out there.

As of now, #1 overall pick odds:

Chiefs 66%
Jags 24%
Browns 6%
Field 4%

As of now, Chiefs still not eliminated from division title or WC game.

Both Cleveland and Jax took their games to OT but neither could pull it out. Losers.

I was rooting so hard for them

I know it is unprecedented since the merger, but did we ever have the number 1 pick back in the AFL days? it still would not be the same since they were competing with the NFL, of course. it seems like maybe Buck Buchanan was a number 1 overall. ( just to be clear, buck was not a quarterback
.)

Yes, Buck buchanan WAS the number one overall, but we got the pick by trading a QB (Cotton Davidson) to the raiders. crazy, huh?

Well, that's odd.

Up to 81% chance of getting the overall first pick.

We can now win a freak game and still in all likelihood have the overall #1 pick, regardless of what else happens. I'll have the exact odds of that in a few minutes.

And we are eliminated from the playoffs.

:(

sweet

good news

If we beat Jacksonville, head-to-head trumps Opp. Win %, right?

PS THANK YOU JAGUARS.

The odds of that happening are officially 0%. Wanna bet on it?

Now we need to be lucky and good with that draft pick. We need a front office in place that will choose the franchise QB instead of the bust. Maybe that's Geno Smith, maybe one of the other guys, but we can't F it up.

No. The only tiebreaker for draft pick is strength of schedule. Head to head means nothing. And we don't play the Jags.

If we win one game, and Jacksonville loses out, we will win the tiebreaker more than 99% of the time.

QBs are too risky. we should take Guard / Tackle Hugh Thornton out of Illinois. Cassel is a pro bowl qb when he has some protection

:p

why don't you update the opening post?

I can't wait until we reach the point where we can root for a win and not lose draft ground.

Rain Man, you are okay wishing for the Chiefs to win one game. That's it though. Choose wisely.

Oh, man. What a gift. I'm going to think about this and really ponder which game I want us to win.

Broncos. I want us to beat the Broncos.

Done.

This is soooooo ****ing awesome.

Just to confirm, you mean one more game, right?

LMAO Yes.

Shawn Zobel ‏@ShawnZobel_DHQ

For Kansas City to NOT land the No. 1 pick, the Chiefs would need to win two of their final five games

Whoops. I had overlooked Carolina who is now maybe the greatest threat to stealing the #1 pick from us. Thanks to SNR for pointing out the threat in another thread. If we beat Carolina and both teams lose all of their remaining games, we win the tiebreaker only 75% of the time.

So Rain Man, you cannot root for the Chiefs next week, unless Carolina beats Phily.

We won't beat Carolina. Their running game will own a very defeated Chiefs team that will quit if they haven't already.

Cleveland is the only game I worry about.

Yep plus Cam will run all over this defense

We know that's not true.

Kansas City Chiefs: your chances are 0.0%

Carolina could win on Monday night. :shrug:

Okay, I'm going to root for Carolina against Philly, and if they lose then I'll just watch next week's Chiefs games with the dull glazed eyes of someone who has lived through great trauma.

Sorry to rain on your parade.

Has the software not been updated? Just downloaded it and the numbers haven't changed.

I had not updated the games from today. Done now.

I think there is a good chance CAR helps us out tomorrow night.

Our draft schlong is HUUUGE

http://i.imgur.com/gQ6TT.jpg

yup...mccoy is out with vick...

Why didn't this get bumped?

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 57%
Jacksonville 25%
Oakland 7%
Philadelphia 5%
Cleveland 4.5%
Carolina 0.5%
Field 1%

Go Browns.

Pulling hard for the Jags over Jets next week. That's probably their most winnable game left...

Wouldn't it be better if the raiders beat them
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A Browns/Raiders tie today would be very nice.

A tie would be perfect.

They can actually tie?
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Sure, if the score is tied after 5 quarters.

Sorry I forgot to put /mcnabb
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Need a Philly win tonight. Then it'll be the loser of the CLE/OAK game, Carolina left with 3, us and Jax with 2.

If we can lose to Oakland and Cleveland I really like our chances. GENO OR BUST!!

Cleveland 3-8 @OAK, KC, WASH, @DEN, @PIT
Carolina 3-9 ATL, @SD, OAK, @NO
Kansas City 2-10 @CLE, @OAK, IND, @DEN
Jacksonville 2-10 NYJ, @MIA, NE, @TEN

Carolina at best wins 1 game. 4-12
Jags at best wins 1 game 3-13
Browns at best wins 1 game 4-12
Chiefs could wins 3 games (Browns,Oakland,Denver will have nothing to play for) 5-11




How do they get those Odds? Kc at 57%

I have my own software that simulates the remaining games of the NFL season thousands of times and applies the tiebreakers to determine playoff odds, draft position odds, etc. Been doing it around 14 years now.

nfl-forecast.com

The Raiders are playing the Browns right now so that helps us. LMAO

I think they could win any of their remaining games save NE.

I'm not ready to concede that they are out of the playoffs!
-Karl Rove

(I know, I know... Keep it in DC)

Today was a nice game, but this team is horrid on the road.

I like Cleveland's defense a lot, and I like their run game, a lot.

2 areas the Chiefs have real trouble with.

Chiefs are going 2-14, no doubt in my mind.

Cannot believe we screwed up so badly today.

Chiefs- 2-10 @CLE, @OAK ,IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-10 NYJ, @MIA , NE, @TEN
Carolina- 3-9 ATL , @SD , OAK , @NO
Oakland- 3-9 DEN , KC , @CAR , @SD
Browns- 4-8 KC , WASH , @DEN , @PITT
Eagels- 3-8 @TB , CINN , WASH , @NYG



Chiefs are gonna **** this up.

****ing Oakland concerns me.