I would guess it eliminates Cleveland and makes it a four team race with us, Jacksonville, Oakland, and Carolina with a tiny chance

I meant Philly not carolina

So if we lose to Cleveland, but beat Oakland, what are our chances?

I don't remember the last time a 3-13 team had the #1 pick.

If Kc and Oakland end up tied Oakland would get the top pick. That game in 2 weeks is big.

The SOS tiebreaker is fluid, but right now Oakland has the tiebreaker on us. (so does philly, but with their remaining schedule, that wont continue to be the case) That tiebreak might hold because Oakland's remaining schedule mostly sucks. So, we definitely need to lose to Oakland to put them out. Our 1 win cant be that one.

In any case we still must lose out unless Jacksonville wins 1, then we must lose at least 3 more games.

We really need Jacksonville to win one more.

Drops us to 54%
Bumps Oakland to 15%

I think that Jac wins against NYJ and they certainly have a chance against Tennessee.

Oakland worries me. Really need for McFadden to get healthy and for them to beat us.

We are literally two weeks from the #1 pick. It is stressful that these two weeks could stop us from getting Geno.

We had a comfortable lead going into the day and we pissed it all away in a single week.

Chiefs will win last week Denver will have nothing to play for.




EDIT Nevermind Ravens shit the Bed.

Even if we lose the next two we only have an 85% chance of getting the number 1 pick. Long way to go.

I"M BUYING A ****ING HENNE JERSEY!!!!!!!!!!

#1 KC 2-10 .515 SOS
#2 JAX 2-10 .577 SOS
#3 OAK 3-9 .508 SOS
#4 CAR 3-9 .533 SOS
#5 PHI 3-8 .492 SOS

Jacksonville's remaining schedule is tough, so they have zero chance at winning a tiebreak. They must lose out and hope for a KC win.

Oakland needs Jacksonville and KC to lose a game. If that happens, the SOS tiebreak with KC will be close.

Carolina needs at least 1 win from Jacksonville (they might win that tiebreak), 2+ wins from KC, and 1 win from Oakland.

Philly is in worse shape than Carolina and is basically eliminated (though maybe the OP will produce a few simulations where they somehow make it) unless everyone starts winning games. That SOS is going to skyrocket.

Chiefs- 2-10 @CLE, @OAK ,IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-10 NYJ, @MIA , NE, @TEN
Carolina- 3-9 ATL , @SD , OAK , @NO
Oakland- 3-9 DEN , KC , @CAR , @SD
Browns- 4-8 KC , WASH , @DEN , @PITT
Eagels- 3-8 @TB , CINN , WASH , @NYG



Just don't see. Chiefs could go 5-11 and end up picking out of the top 5.